Arrow Global Share Discussion Threads

[jbarcroftr] 20/3/2014 08:06

Absolutely in agreement

[nurdin] 20/3/2014 08:05

Crazy..this reaction is irrational...the overhang is cleared now.I have added

[nurdin] 19/3/2014 15:24

Yes and hence the pressure on the share price imo.

[stemis] 19/3/2014 15:05

Many thanks.

So RBS have a 6 month lock up arrangement which will end 11 April 2014 (I.e. in just over 3 weeks time).

[stemis] 18/3/2014 16:01

Anyone know where the prospectus is on the web site?

[jakedog2] 18/3/2014 13:41

Support firmimg at 230p on L2.

Hoping to see it bounce from here

[nurdin] 18/3/2014 10:34

The fall is most probably caused by the imminent disposal by RBS of their holding....imo

[montynj] 18/3/2014 10:17

Any time they could announce the expected acquisition and share will be flying

[lennonsalive] 18/3/2014 09:41

Support at 220p, below that and who knows

[fruitninja84] 17/3/2014 16:16

This is dog is eating away at my gains made today ... But good to see support around 237 ish

[stemis] 14/3/2014 09:47

Anyone know what the performance conditions are that will result in management receiving £2m of free shares in 3 years time? I've had a quick look but can't see a copy of the prospectus on Arrows web site.

[lennonsalive] 13/3/2014 10:34

Seems to have stopped.

[lennonsalive] 10/3/2014 13:04

240p here we come, will it hold?

[stemis] 07/3/2014 15:23

Hi Nurdin,

Collections last year were £127.8m. Outgoings were £69.6m (O/Hd £41.9, int £19.3m, tax £8.4). That's net £58.2m (which is about £5m/month). The results disclose "Net cash flows from operating activities before purchases of loan portfolios and loan notes" of £79.4m so there must have been some non cashflow items and working capital benefits.

It's hard to forecast net years cashflow because whilst they've bought more loans (so more repayments), the receipts from existing loans will decay. However assuming its the same then they'll have the £58.2m above plus the £47.5m of cash on the balance sheet to buy more loans. If the the cost of buying £1 of 10 yr ERC is still 44p in 2014 (i.e what they achieved in 2013) then they can buy £240.2m of 10 yr ERC in 2014 (£105.7m/0.44).

That'll leave 10 yr ERC asB/F £650.3m
Purchased 240.2
Received -127.8
C/F £762.7mDidn't someone mention that a broker was forecasting £750m. So seems reasonable.

I didn't know about the revolving credit.

[lennonsalive] 07/3/2014 15:09

It's a great company with a fantastic future. Whilst it's good to hear others opinions, you must always look at the figures and decide what you think.

Long for me.

[nurdin] 07/3/2014 14:39

Stemis...how does this grab you :

-they had operating cashflow of £90m last year

-they need to invest only £47m to stand still

-they have £50m in cash on the balance sheet

-plus a £55m revolving credit facility

-they are generating £5m/month post interest and tax

-the gearing is very modest at under 2x EBITDA

-they could easily leverage their business to purchase bigger portfolios should the need arise,without sweating

...all this from a reliable source within the company.

[cestnous] 07/3/2014 12:51

Quite possibly platts, which would explain a lot. :¬)

[platts] 07/3/2014 10:59

Has steMis shorted the stock?

[lennonsalive] 07/3/2014 10:40

Whatever you think, this is heading towards 240p for about the 4th time. If it doesnt hold then 220p here we come.

[nurdin] 07/3/2014 10:21

You miss the point Stemis.The company has made no comment about the valuation of the company...they are merely saying that they will focus on earnings growth and ROE as the key measures to drive the business...nothing more nothing less.They clearly regard these as the important parameters to measure the success or otherwise of the business model.My view now is that the company is cheap at the current level based on 2-3 years view point....but the valuation could be considered stretched on 18-20 yrs view in absence of any visibility on future cashflows,ERCs ,size of the debt market etc.

[stemis] 07/3/2014 09:24

Maybe I should and maybe I shouldn't but I don't see what difference it makes to you. ARW is a £400m market cap. Nothing I can do will move the price up or down. Unless its comforting to only hear the views of those that agree with you.....