Arrow Global Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 24/9/2014 11:14

Melf, you need to look at how they calculate adjusted ebitda

[stemis] 24/9/2014 11:13

The Directors believe the Acquisition is financially attractive for Arrow Global, with an implied EV/120-Month Gross ERC(7) of 0.7 times

Madness. They've bought the debt for 70p for every £1 they'll collect over the next 10 years. Their collection costs are currently running at 22.6p in the £. So that leaves them about 11p profit for every £1 of purchase cost and it'll take them 10 years to collect it. As a comparison, the acquisition cost of debt in the interim accounts was about 41p.

There must be some strategic value in the business they've bought because otherwise they've been had over by TowerBrook......

[melf] 24/9/2014 09:11

"For the 12 months ended 30 June 2014, the enlarged group would have generated Combined Adjusted EBITDA of GBP128.6m, before expected annual pre-tax cost savings of GBP6.5m expected to be delivered in full during 2016(4)"

Am I missing something here? Doesn't this put the forward P/E at a ridiculously low figure given the current market cap?

Stand to be corrected.

[itchycrack] 24/9/2014 08:34

Great news! I think we could well be 300p+ by the end of the year IMHO.

[shauney2] 24/9/2014 08:30

Well that's done the trick.Nice acquisition.

"The Directors believe the Acquisition is financially attractive for Arrow Global, with an implied EV/120-Month Gross ERC(7) of 0.7 times and EV/LTM(8) Adjusted EBITDA of 4.6 times. It is expected to be strongly EPS accretive and Return on Equity ('ROE') enhancing from 2016 with full synergy benefits and moderately ROE and EPS accretive in 2015(9) . The Acquisition is expected to support further growth in Arrow Global's EPS going forward"

[gucci] 19/9/2014 09:38

breaking out now

[fozzie] 19/9/2014 09:11

Back in the black for me today, hooray!

[cestnous] 19/9/2014 09:03

Nice quiet board and the chart is looking fine.

[cestnous] 08/9/2014 13:42

I.C. from last Friday;

Arrow Global aims high
Arrow Global (ARW), which specialises in wringing value from distressed debt portfolios purchased from mainstream lenders, revealed further robust progress at the half-year stage. Over £99m was spent in the period buying portfolios with a face value of nearly £1.1bn, while underlying cash profit rose 11 per cent year on year to £48m.
Writing back provisions by shedding nonperforming loans is a useful way for banks to bolster capital, as regulators are demanding. That suggests Arrow should continue to be able to buy portfolios. Analysts at broker Numis Securities note that there are currently “a number of potentially very sizeable portfolios for sale in Arrow’s core markets”. It therefore expects Arrow’s share of the debt purchase market to grow to 9 per cent by 2015, from just 2 per cent in 2010. The company’s ability to squeeze more value from these portfolios than the vendors is also an important growth driver. Numis estimates that Arrow typically enhances the number of paying customers by 50 per cent.
Neither is Arrow focused on the UK alone. Nearly two-thirds of the period’s portfolio purchases were in Portugal, and the company has also secured a license to operate in Holland.
Numis expects EPS of 16.6p for the full year (from 14.5p in 2013), rising to 19.9p in 2015.
The shares are up modestly since our recent buy tip (230p, 12 June 2014), but still trade on just 14 times full-year forecast earnings. That’s not expensive for the financial services sector, leaving Arrow rated in line with lower-growth companies that focus on sub-prime credit, such as door-step lenders. That lowly rating looks unwarranted. JA

[itchycrack] 05/9/2014 16:14

Can see this breaking above 300p myself before the year end (IMHO).

[jk1206] 05/9/2014 16:06

Nice upward move this afternoon.

[aishah] 29/8/2014 09:45

Numis, Add - 287p target

[aishah] 28/8/2014 17:00

Panmure Reiterate Buy - 335p target
Canaccord Reiterate Buy - 325p target

[billy_liar] 28/8/2014 16:52

Last thing we need is the Coqsucker Rebel ramping!

[cestnous] 28/8/2014 15:37

Just said the same thing on the CR thread Glaws :¬)

[glaws2] 28/8/2014 15:27

Very nice intra day reversal - and onto a new recent high

[cestnous] 28/8/2014 07:58

My feelings too Nurdin. Solid progress.

[nurdin] 28/8/2014 07:47

Well the results look fine to me...no surprises at least.On track
to meet full year eps estimate of 16.8p which is 73% above last
year. Divi is a bonus

[glaws2] 22/8/2014 10:02

Well it's consistently making higher highs and higher lows.

[gucci] 22/8/2014 10:00

waiting for some action here

[itchycrack] 18/8/2014 17:15

Indeed, I feel a swift move upto around the 260p level must be on the cards shortly. Note a large 100,000 buy went through after the close.

[dlku] 18/8/2014 16:33

v good must say

[cestnous] 30/7/2014 16:09

Another snaky falsehood from Tony Bliar if I'm not mistaken; now where's my tea leaves....

[nurdin] 29/7/2014 09:37

I shall refrain from responding to such a daft and obtuse comment!!

[billy_liar] 29/7/2014 09:31

If you are hoping for an improvement in share price based on historic squiggly lines on a chart, give up all hope now of successful investing, and go play online poker instead.