Arria Nlg Ords Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 04/9/2016 20:48

be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.....

[kidknocked] 04/9/2016 20:08

Another top post jumbone. Agree pretty much word for word re content.

[jumbone] 04/9/2016 19:14

KCR69 & Kidknocked:

I am humbled by your appreciation of posting my research...

Your Logic of holding 10 K bonus shares and en-cashing them before Feb 2020 if the share price is higher than NZ$ 1.00 (It's not 53p) Makes a lot of Sense. There is absolututely no disputing that

I have in addition to Kidknocked's point of view of MM's are the beneficiaries of holding the share price as low as possible" I have another point of view

1. Until now... NLG's proposed primary listiing in NZSX & ASX is just that --- PROPOSED

2. They need a regulatory consent from both NZSX & ASX... Both are pretty tough regulated exchanges

3. They also need the complete consent of the Listed Warrant holders to the scheme.

4. Because the BOD's intention is to NOT to list ANY trade able warrants





5. Take a look at the largest holders of the "Quoted Warrants"





6. Both Iconic & Litespeed are not going to easily agree to the scheme since they have loaned huge monies to NLG expecting a substantial rise in NLG shares

7. Instead of rising the share price had fallen down to rock bottom.

8. For example Iconic were thrilled to have the option to subscribe for 3.125 mill additional share warrants with a strike prize of £ 1.33 per share

This is from 10 Oct 2014 RNS








9. Additionally the unquoted warrant holders might also not agree to the scheme unless it's at extremely attractive terms

10. Hence there is a lot of doubt on whether this Scheme will go ahead at all.


BUT This is going ahead definitely and at substantially higher Listing price and I will stick to NZ$ 2.00

11. RE Read the RNS of 04 July...

This part:






12 The fund raising of £ 8.5 Million is through an IPO & subscription

13. The pricing will be subject to market evaluation

14. That to me means that NLG is going to the NZSX & ASX market with a new prospectus... Detailing current revenues + Proposed future revenues with "RECOUNT" working intandem with XERO, QuickBooks, MYOB and even SAGE

15. This would most likely to be something like my fair value valuation of NLG shares but taking the new additional shares into account

16 A few months ago XERO raised over $ 110 Mill just for US Expansion plans...



17. So NLG will put forth a new proposition to the OZ & NZ public to subscribe to it's 100% underwritten IPO

18. As per my info they have already lined up New Institutional Investors, MSL will also be taking a big chunk of the New shares

19. In their own words "a standby underwriting agreement between Arria NLG Group, the Company and MSL Capital Markets, which in turn will be supported by a series of standby sub-underwriting agreements with certain existing shareholders and new institutional investors."





20. It's time to look upon Arria NLG not as just a bunch of academicians talking about AI.. and to look at them as a consumer software product company.

21 This is very clear from their intended reason for fund raising





22. This announcement about the Scheme will be Before the end of THIS MONTH

Again look at 04 July RNS

[hazl] 04/9/2016 18:40

YES we have all had plenty to think about this weekend.

[kcr69] 04/9/2016 17:06

Hi Kid.

I am not doubting the validity of Jumbones posts, it was great to read through them and I take them in good faith without further knowledge to prove or disprove them. I am simply setting myself expectation levels. If the listing goes ahead with the appropriate funding raised I am mightily relieved. If it lists at 30 - 40p then I am happy. Anything over that is one huge fantastic bonus as far as I am concerned in the short term.

With regard to my point on 'professionals', it was simply that they would have had chance to read through the July 4th RNS and my perception is that they have not read it as a £1.10 share in the near term.

I do however 100% agree with your point around buys being marked as sells as I too have concrete evidence of that last week.

Thanks again to all for this weekends fantastic posts and thoughts. If nothing else the next four weeks are unlikely to be dull.

[kidknocked] 04/9/2016 16:23

Also.....Jumbones first (very good) post was posted after uk markets closed on Friday, so no one has had a chance to react, yet.

[kidknocked] 04/9/2016 16:15

Hi Charlie,Would love Jumbones views, but I'll add my two penneth. With regards to Jumbones' posts, they coincide with everything I've gleaned over the last year, the new bit of news was the 2 dollars listing price, which until mentioned was much more speculative in nature. I think you have to ask yourself, who has had the most to gain since the 4th July announcement? Answer....the MM's. I seriously think the price action up to mid last week was a concerted attempted by the Mm's to keep the share price down and distill doubts into holders minds with the sole intention of parting PI's from their shares ahead of the NZX listing at a MUCH higher rate. If you look at the trades since the 5th July, the price has reduced on very minimal sales volumes and a rather persistent 40k trader, who I suspect is brokers passing shares amongst themselves. So, taking all the available information I have no reason to doubt the validity of Jumbones posts and therefore a listing price of £1.10 seems more than feasible. This is not a widely traded share as it is generally more tightly held by a few founder holders, so I don't think there are huge numbers to be brought on the market. Also, professionals would not have been aware of the rumoured float price. With a couple of early buys next week, this could really start to motor, but more games by MMs are also not beyond possibility (most of the sells on Friday were in fact buys below mid as mentioned by a few posters on the LSE website). So, Mm's are still willing to write a few shares off for the bigger prize of punting as many of these at £1.10 as possible. I'm urgently reviewing possible funding with a view to significantly topping up early next week. Kid

[hazl] 04/9/2016 13:19

Yes kidknocked I think the internet boom has only just started in some areas........it seems to be offering all kinds of usages that people never dreamt of!

[kidknocked] 04/9/2016 13:15

Hazl, yep, things about to get very very lively here....

[hazl] 04/9/2016 13:02

THINGS move on rackers and there is no doubt that has become rather interesting...........

IMO

[rackers1] 04/9/2016 12:57

you said that up at 45p kid.

[kidknocked] 04/9/2016 10:03

Very, very excited about this :-)

[jumbone] 03/9/2016 22:41

Kidknocked:

GenPact deal is a great deal...

Especially because it gives Arria NLG a lot of visibility in the Silicon Valley

But Commercialisation of a product through Genpact is a bit in the future..

However "Recount" is at the present.. and is already at Beta stage...

Look at the war chest of Xero...to take on.. Intutit & Sage...and every one else..

In this fragmented Accounting software environment..

With Sage, Quickbooks, Xero, MYOB, NetSuite and many many others..

There are 72 MILLION Small scale industry customers in 2015...

AND it's growing...

And Growing Very Rapidly..

There are 500,000 Start-up companies in the US Alone in any one year

US has a 4.38 % of global population.. but has measurable statistics...

On extrapolation.. there are 11.45 million Start-ups annually in the whole world.

Imagine a company like XERO winning 290,000 customers just from Australia & New Zealand...in Just 1 Year

Nearly 80% of them are all willing to pay more than £30 per month..for managing their business finances...

But NOT one of them understand..

Whether what they are doing right

Should they change

if so where what, how?

should they continue doing whatever they are doing.

Is what they are doing is correct..

Not one of them have a clue...

Hence those who are smart .. succeed...

Those who are not... Fail.. and fold up

Just for example..

There is a SW like "Recount" which would tell a small business..

a start-up bakery for example..

Could answer all those questions... and more..

In a lay person's terms...

Without using Accountant or a Bankers Speak

would it not be valuable?

Cherished even...

That's what "Recount" in my opinion is attempting to do...

So there is an IMMINENCE market out there...

That market is accounting SW platform INDEPENDENT for NLG....

Be it XERO, Quickbooks, Be it MYOB, Be it SAGE, Be it Net Suite, Be it X Y or Z...

Arria's "Recount" will do just the same thing..

Make you understand what your business is..

tell you what you are doing right, what you are doing wrong..

also tell you how you can use the good practices to better your profits,

How you can minimise the bad practices to better your profits

THIS is a revolution in the making...

Where... a small business will never have to say..

I wish I had known what, where and when to change...

I wish I could afford such a financial advisor,

who would look at my business critically from MY stand point...

And advise me what to do and what not to do...

So we are looking at a Multi TRILLION STERLING Market out there

Now NLG have made the first step.. by launching a Beta version..

Yes there are some bugs..

They will be fixed..

Yes these are early days...

But ...

A huge revolution is coming.. and SOON

Those in NLG will benefit...

Those using NLG SW and products will benefit Immensely...

[kidknocked] 03/9/2016 20:35

Thanks for the answer re your source jumbone, a tricky one to answer !!Yep, I've had a look at the recount beta and yep, very very impressed with it. Way beyond what a small firm should be capable of achieving !!What's your view on the genpact deal ? Also for me, a really big repeating revenue earner.

[jumbone] 03/9/2016 18:25

Guys want to see what "Recount" does and how it Reports...

Here is the screen shot of the report in 2 parts











In addition there are 4 Detailed Reports

Sales Report

Cash Report

Expenses Report

& Receivables Report

Which are generated if you click the button under the graphs that you can see in screen shot 1

Each of them is very detailed on the topic

The entire report is all in Common man's lingo... No Banker / Accountant speak here

Even my 7 year old can understand every part of such a report...

Like this detailed Sales Report
























You can Print the report or generate a word document with the buttons at the bottom

Quite impressive

[jumbone] 03/9/2016 17:37

Kidknocked::


How good is My source re listing price ?

Ha very tough question...

I trust him... implicitly

He knows based on his information I am going all out onto NLG

He also knows a lot is at stake...

Till Now I had no reason to doubt his knowledge or insight...

After I had the info I have been doing a lot of my own research on that very question "Listing Price"

One thing stood out like a diamond in a pile of coal

The 04 July RNS says

The strike Price will Be NZ$ 1.00 or £ 0.53 Per each "Bonus Warrant"







--The highlighted text is clearly says that

"The exercise price of each Bonus Warrant will be NZ$1.00 (approximately £0.53) and the Bonus Warrants would expire on 15 February 2020."


-- In my experience of many many years "Bonus Warrants" are always issued at a Knocked down discount price to the share price




So If the strike price of NZ 1.00 per warrant is at a substantial discount...

A 50% discount to the listing price... Perhaps

What I am told was a NZSX listing at NZ$ 2.00 per "New Arria NLG Group Shares"

Then it has to be CORRECT


May be the information is right before our eyes all the time...

And we didn't notice it...

Just like how many of us had gone on to the RECOUNT' Beta's website?

Tell me honestly..


It is

[kidknocked] 03/9/2016 17:15

They sound quite reliable.....

[kidknocked] 03/9/2016 17:11

Hi Jumbone,

Great posts. How good is your source re listing price ?

[jumbone] 03/9/2016 17:00

Any Time Hazl:

It will be my pleasure to answer any questions

Will do my best to answer them as best as I could

No point doing weeks of research to lock that information just for myself.

In fact the value of that information multiplies by sharing



BY the way does any one know how big a company XERO is?

Their this year revenue was over NZ$ 207 Million (a 57% growth over last year)

They earned a 76% Gross profit of $158 Mill

XERO currently is sitting on a cash pile of $ 211.5 Million

Their shares trade at $19.05 under the ticker XRO in NZSX & in ASX

If NLG is willing XERO can buy NLG a trifle several times over

[kidknocked] 03/9/2016 16:57

I expect fireworks this week.

[kidknocked] 03/9/2016 16:56

dr's will be listed at an equivalent price on the LSE, so....if they list at 2 NZ bucks, they have to be worth £1.10 a share here, that's the way it works.

[kidknocked] 03/9/2016 16:54

Hazl. You can trade DR's pretty much like any UK stock. Alternately you could consider an ANZ bank trading account to trade directly, but it's not worth it.

THESE ARE MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED.......but not for much longer :-)

Fascinating few weeks coming up and evidence is there to say this all be spectacular.

[hazl] 03/9/2016 16:05

Thanks for your explanation.
I clearly like these and that's why I have some.
However I just want to be clear On the facts, as you have arrived with fresh information, before I purchase any more.
I'm sure that you understand.

[jumbone] 03/9/2016 14:15

Hazl:

I will post my answer to your question in detail in a couple of hours

But the simple answer to your question

"the warrants are our entry into the NZ listing is that correct?"

is NO

All current shares will be converted at par (1 : 1) to the new Arria NLG Group shares

which will be listed and traded in NZSX & ASX

We in the UK will have DRs(Depository Receipts) at par to those shares ( 1 : 1 )

Listed and traded in LSE Main Market

GDR is just a more convenient way to list trade able securities quickly

It does not make us any difference...

Instead of trading shares we will be trading DRs

The Bonus warrant is just a Gift --

which can be converted to 1 new share at a price of NZ$ 1.00 if we wish But Before Feb 2020

They will give 1 Bonus warrant for every 10 shares held

Hope it is clear