ARM Holdings Share Discussion Threads

[waspfactory] 02/4/2016 07:52

Excellent, holding ARM, GNK and WTB from that list. Will take a look at some of the other recommendations. ARM still my favourite :)

[philanderer] 01/4/2016 17:21

Hargreaves Lansdown..

'Five shares for growth investors'




And wasp , Greene King is tipped there as well - for income :-)

[philanderer] 01/4/2016 14:14

Good man , prosecco in the fridge for me for tonight :-)

Best thing I`ve done was to buy a stack of euros for 71p last year ;-)

[waspfactory] 01/4/2016 13:33

Nice - Keep the >1300p recommendations coming phil. ARM is my only blue so far today. Greene King needs a helping hand so I'll be in my local for an early doors to give them some support. Happy days.

[philanderer] 01/4/2016 13:03

01 Apr 16 Bryan Garnier Buy tp 1310p

Reiterates

[philanderer] 01/4/2016 10:55

Only one positive for me today - apart from my FTSE short.

ARM chart looking solid .

[stevenrevell] 31/3/2016 10:47

What's holding this back now Apple up

[philanderer] 30/3/2016 11:54

29th march

ARM Holdings - The Growth Story Is Not Over Yet

[l.parker] 21/3/2016 10:13

Your views are quite interesting, but you have not considered, the illegal copies they are/were? causing lower sales, users of their goods, are now wise
& will use ARM,s original products. I, like you I only trade using British
Companies.

[gengulphus] 21/3/2016 09:46

Not a question I've looked at, nor one I'm going to - sorry. Basically, I only invest in UK shares, in order to keep the 'universe' of shares that I look at down to a size I can cope with, not to have to understand other countries' conventions about accounting and other matters that affect company reports, and to keep my tax returns as simple as possible.

And by the way, yes, I'm fully aware that I may well be missing some opportunities as a result of that decision: I've made it knowing that there is probably a price to pay in those terms, but fully willing to pay that price in order to keep my financial affairs simple and easy to understand.

Gengulphus

[steptoes yard] 18/3/2016 15:45

GengDogeng
Fr IOT do you prefer Cisco at a p/e of 14 or ARM at 30 ?

[gengulphus] 18/3/2016 13:20

Do you believe that some of the directors think that the growth prospects at ARM are limited?

Well, those prospects obviously are limited - e.g. by global GDP! And if the directors didn't know that, I would seriously doubt their sanity... ;-)

But more seriously, sorry, I have no real idea how limited ARM's directors think the company's overall growth prospects are. I do know that they actually say that the growth prospects are somewhat limited in some areas - for example, this year's annual report says that:

"The mobile market remains ARM’s most important
market, responsible for nearly half of all ARM-based
chip shipments. Although we expect smartphone
unit growth to be slower in the future, it remains
a major growth driver for ARM over the next
few years."

and checking the numbers for unit shipments and their breakdown in the last five annual reports, I get:

Year Shipments Mobile Mobile (billions) percentage shipments (billions)-------------------------------------------2011 7.9 57% 4.52012 8.7 53% 4.62013 10.4 49% 5.12014 12.0 45% 5.42015 14.8 44% 6.5-------------------------------------------


The increase in overall shipments that that shows annualises to 17.0% per year; the corresponding figure for mobile shipments is 9.6% - so clearly mobile is already one of the lower-growth application areas for the company.

But equally, a more general reading of the report says that they think there are good growth prospects in other application areas, and indeed embedded applications (loosely, ones where the processor gets a job done without it being especially obvious to the user that computing is involved at all) are already a high-growth area:

Year Shipments Embedded Embedded (billions) percentage shipments (billions)-------------------------------------------2011 7.9 23% 1.82012 8.7 26% 2.32013 10.4 28% 2.92014 12.0 34% 4.12015 14.8 38% 5.6-------------------------------------------


which annualises to 32.8% embedded growth per year. It looks very likely to me that in terms of shipments, embedded will overtake mobile as the most important application area for the company in the next year or two... In terms of royalty revenues and the earnings they fuel, I would expect embedded to still be some way behind mobile, as I would generally expect an embedded processor to have a lower royalty than a mobile one - but the difference between 9.6% and 32.8% annualised growth rates (if they continue) should make embedded catch up fairly rapidly in those financial terms as well.

So presently, lower-but-still-good growth in mobile and very good growth in embedded, while the other two smaller application areas the company reports on look to be growing at somewhere around the overall company average. And as far as future growth prospects are concerned, the directors think it's slowing in mobile (and I can see why - ARM's position in mobile is already pretty dominant), and while I haven't found anything indicating what the directors think of the embedded growth prospects, I would personally be quite surprised if it was at all close to the point of slowing down yet. And in the other areas, another quote from the annual report about one of them:

"All of the main vendors of networking chips have
licensed ARM technology for future products.
Multiple companies released ARM-based chips
for LTE base stations in 2015, and we expect to
see many more networking chip designs come to
market in the next few years. In 2015, we announced
additional investments to accelerate our market
share gains in networking infrastructure."

Clearly an area that they see good growth prospects in and are pushing for...

So: a mixture of maturing/slowing growth, currently high growth, and future possibilities for accelerated growth, in different application areas. What it all adds up to in terms of the company's overall future growth prospects is a difficult question - I'm pretty certain they're good, but just how good is the difficult part...

And it may well be that it's too difficult for the directors as well: forecasting the future (especially the long-term future) is hard! And while I can see bits of the directors' thinking about the company's future growth prospects, I don't have any very good feel for the whole of it.

Gengulphus

[steptoes yard] 18/3/2016 10:24

Thanks geng
Do you believe that some of the directors think that the growth prospects at ARM are limited?

[philanderer] 16/3/2016 20:39

Puting on another 20p or so stateside since london close.

[steptoes yard] 16/3/2016 13:54

With corporation tax on the way down over the next 2 years will ARM reduce further given the sector they are in ?? 16% at mo

[philanderer] 16/3/2016 13:34

16 Mar 16 Bryan Garnier Buy tp 1310p

reiterates

[steptoes yard] 15/3/2016 19:26

Hi Geng
I have Mike Muller at 56 and Segars and Kennedy at 48 and 52. I take your point on age though but the amount in question is huge

[gengulphus] 15/3/2016 15:37

Some directors despite their board level knowledge and an insight into the 10'years strategy don't always have a steer for how the share price will respond to the growth in the next ten years. ...

Or they do have a steer on how their own lives are going to develop in the next ten years. If you're aged say 60, the next ten years is a very substantial fraction of the remainder of your life - not just in duration, but probably also in quality of life. I can easily imagine someone in that sort of position reckoning that say £500k now, that they'll be able to enjoy properly, is worth more to them than £5m in ten years' time...

Gengulphus

[philanderer] 15/3/2016 13:14

I think this is new....


TSMC, ARM agree to collaborate on 7nm FinFET process technology

ARM (ARMH) and TSMC (TSM) announced a multi-year agreement to collaborate on a 7nm FinFET process technology which includes a design solution for future low-power, high-performance compute SoCs. The new agreement expands the companies' long-standing partnership and advances leading-edge process technologies beyond mobile and into next-generation networks and data centers.

Additionally, the agreement extends previous collaborations on 16nm and 10nm FinFET that have featured ARM Artisan foundation Physical IP.

[steptoes yard] 14/3/2016 17:31

Par for the course in a large company. If it was directors flogging in a sub 100m company then I'd be worried but this is 13 billion.

Some directors despite their board level knowledge and an insight into the 10'years strategy don't always have a steer for how the share price will respond to the growth in the next ten years. They prob hear advisers say "ooh 35 yrs earnings, bloody hell " and think, let's offload a few each year. The China spook down to 840 twice in the last 6 months probably influenced them as well and they think they are doing well at 10 quid.

[philanderer] 14/3/2016 17:18

No it`s par for the course with these guys . They always dump thousands every year after the final results are are released. They all hold loads ;-)

[stevenrevell] 14/3/2016 16:50

There must be a reason for them selling do they no something we don't

[philanderer] 14/3/2016 16:21

When are these directors going to stop selling ? :-S