ARM Holdings Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 08/2/2016 11:53

FT Alphaville:

ARM Holdings PLC (ARM:LSE): Last: 936.00, down 47 (-4.78%), High: 982.00, Low: 925.50, Volume: 2.38m

BE
Yeah, there's the Imagination readthrough, though there's not much of that.

BE
More pressingly, perhaps, it seems the consensus is drifting a bit lower ahead of Wednesday's earnings.

BE
Here's BMO, for instance.

BE
For ARM, we are adjusting our 2016 estimates due to lower USD/GBP exchange rate partly offset by lower USD revenues. Our USD revenue estimates are based on lower smartphone unit shipments than we were previously modeling. Our 2016E EPS goes to 35.7 pence vs. our prior estimate of 33.5 pence. We are also introducing our 2017 estimates including USD revenues of $1.87 billion, up 11% y-y, reported revenues of £1.30 billion, up 13% y-y, and EPS of 40.2 pence. Our 2017 estimates are based on a USD/GBP rate of 1.44.

For 4Q15 and 1Q16, we are largely in line with consensus. For 4Q15, we expect USD revenues of $399 million, up 6% q-q. We expect reported revenues of £259 million, up 6% q-q, and EPS of 7.9 pence, vs. consensus’ estimate for revenue of £263 million, up 8%, and EPS of 8.2 pence. For 1Q16, we expect reported revenues of £262 million, flat q-q, and EPS of 7.8 pence, compared with consensus’ estimates for revenue of £263 million, flat q-q and EPS of 8.1 pence. Our 1Q16 estimates are based on a USD/GBP FX rate of 1.52, vs. our 4Q15 rate assumption of 1.54.

BE
And Credit Suisse.

BE
For ARM, we expect Q4 group revenues of
$399mn (+6% qoq/+12% yoy) or £262mn, driving EPS of 8.22p. Within this, we
assume Licensing sales of $139mn (+10% qoq/+0% yoy; in-line with consensus).
For Royalties, we model $192mn (+4% qoq/+28% yoy; vs. consensus at
$195mn). While we acknowledge concerns around slowing smartphone unit
growth, given royalty rates remain on the rise and long term opportunity around
Networking, IoT and Auto, we believe ARM can deliver ~10%/15% sales/EPS
CAGR over 2015-2018, and hence we maintain OP.

BE
Smartphone + Tablet unit growth slowing; Royalty rate to provide offset....
Given ARM reports royalties by a quarter lag, we note that global smartphone +
tablet unit shipments grew 5%/3% yoy in Q315/Q415 (clear slowdown from
12%/10% growth in Q1/Q215). However, with ARM outgrowing the smartphone
market and overall semi market materially driven principally by content increase,
we expect this trend to continue. As such, we model Royalty growth of 28%/20%
yoy for Q415/Q116 (corresponding quarters). Beyond that, we see some level of
deceleration with royalties growing at 14% yoy over the remainder of 2016.

BE
…but will it be enough? Consensus seems high on Royalties; FX a tailwind
on EPS. For 2016, we model US$ Royalties to grow 15% yoy, below consensus
at 20%. Specifically for Smartphones (~55% of Royalties), we model 17% growth
in Royalties which assumes 5% smartphone unit growth, 5% decline in chip
ASPs and royalty rate rising from 1.75% to 2.05% due to increasing penetration
of 64-bit and multi-core processors. Given we expect limited benefit from royalty
growth in newer verticals like Networking or Auto in the near term (as it may take
longer to benefit), we believe consensus at 20% Royalty growth may prove a bit
high. But on the other hand, GBP/USD has moved from 1.52 for Q415 to 1.45
currently, so a 4.5% move in FX can theoretically imply around 7% potential
upside to our EPS estimates, which are 5-7% below consensus.

[philanderer] 08/2/2016 11:07

steven , it`s wednesday.


08 Feb 16 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral tp 950p
08 Feb 16 Credit Suisse Outperform tp 1175p

reiterations

[stevenrevell] 08/2/2016 09:53

What day are results ta

[philanderer] 08/2/2016 09:47

Read across from IMG this morning

[stevenrevell] 08/2/2016 09:40

Is bad news cumin this week

[steptoes yard] 05/2/2016 13:37

Treading water between 980 and 1015 as results are awaited in the the coming week. For me it is is how much the net run rate is rising with IOT in its infancy. PBT at c £1m a day, how soon before the net run rate hits £1.10 a day

[philanderer] 04/2/2016 13:03

ARM Extends 28nm IP Leadership With Latest UMC 28HPC POPs

[philanderer] 03/2/2016 17:50

A bullish note from Aviate Global helped Arm Holdings climb 5.5p, or 0.6pc, to 986.5p. Neil Campling, of Aviate Global, said that Arm had been “incredibly resilient” in the face of Apple’s wary outlook, order cuts and Samsung burning smartphone inventory.

Telegraph

[philanderer] 03/2/2016 16:59

Spoiled by our american friends today ;-)


ah ! just seen this morning`s strength was down to a takeover story...

[steptoes yard] 03/2/2016 11:30

Philanderer, convincing break of 1015 gives us free run to 1050 yes. 935/945 becoming increasingly worthy support. Buy on dips

[philanderer] 03/2/2016 09:00

Next stop 1050p ?

[philanderer] 01/2/2016 22:16

Alphabet- Google's parent company- has surpassed Apple as the world's most valuable company after its latest earnings report.

The company posted net income of $4.9bn (£3.4bn) for the fourth quarter, an increase from $4.7bn a year ago.

The announcement sent its share price up 9% in after-hours trading.
That means that Alphabet is now worth around $568bn, compared with Apple which has a value of $535bn.

[philanderer] 29/1/2016 17:23

Nice timing SY , even my wednesday buy looking ok now ;-)

[steptoes yard] 28/1/2016 18:10

Topped up today. ARMs net run rate PBT is £1m a day and rising

[philanderer] 28/1/2016 17:50

Blame it on Qualcomm today -

" profits crashed 24% in the first quarter, sparking concerns that slowing sales of the iPhone will hit other suppliers including ARM."

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 20:18

oops a bit previous with that buy today... US markets tanking after that Fed statement tonight !

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 17:23

Top FTSE100 faller today..


Security Name Price % Change

ARM Holdings 990.00 -2.46%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) 254.50 -2.45%
Shire 4032.00 -2.21%
Capita Group (The) 1141.50 -2.19%
Burberry Group 1186.50 -2.02%
International Consolidated Airlines Group 551.75 -1.65%
Standard Chartered 469.55 -1.62%
Sports Direct International 412.55 -1.19%
Rolls-Royce Group 537.25 -1.15%
Antofagasta 373.65 -1.15%

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 16:26

I`ve had a small top up @ 989p

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 16:10

AAPL getting twonked -6% , an 18 month low

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 12:47

ARM Holdings plc (LON:ARM) has been assigned a 1400p price target by equities research analysts at Goldman Sachs in a report issued on Wednesday, Market Beat.com reports.

The brokerage presently has a a “buy” rating on the stock. Goldman Sachs’ target price would indicate a potential upside of 37.66% from the stock’s current price.

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 11:31

Yep, happy to hold :-)

[tonio] 27/1/2016 09:39

Well, there it is - a bit harsh really - in a terrible world trading climate Apple increases its IPhone sales, makes more money - together with ARM innovates new stuff but of course gets lambasted because the future view seems bleaker.
Shucks, take the long view (again), back quality.

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 09:07

European chipmaker stocks fall after Apple forecasts lower revenues

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 09:02

Yep , there it is :-)

27 Jan 16 Liberum sell tp 650p