ARM Holdings Share Discussion Threads

[raysor] 10/2/2016 09:59

It is difficult to figure out exactly who ARM supply.

As you know they basically license or earn Royalty from their IP (the design of foundation for nearly every processor.
Someone like Taiwan's MediaTek who supply Chinese smartphone & tablet manufacturers like Xiaomi more than likely need ARM's IP.

[tonio] 10/2/2016 09:48

Excellent Sheep-Herder, ARM's business model of design and franchise also takes maximum advantage of our genius for innovation and design - all based on great original architecture - allowing manufacture and custom- modelling to be undertaken by others, building great inter-company relationships.

[raysor] 10/2/2016 09:43

mS3: Don't know! But: The chips inside smartphones and tablets are ARM's major business line and it gets paid when chips are shipped, either to handset manufacturers or to consumers.

[sheep_herder] 10/2/2016 09:31

Why is it a pity? You WANT them to be non-reliant on any single customer. Does your portfolio only have one stock in? Look at IMG as a great example of what happens when management go after one big customer and ignore the rest of the market.

[market sniper3] 10/2/2016 09:26

Thats a pity Sheep herder, read a bullish piece on apple yesterday. Ill try and find it and post the link.

Thanks for the reply.

Always looked upon ARM as one of Britains Very Best, but im not tech orientated so tend not to understand the techy issues you guys are discussing all the time, and it makes it a little difficult in deciding when to enter a trade with ARM.

[steptoes yard] 10/2/2016 09:22

Mkt makers dropped this beautifully this morning, they want your stock.

I bought some more instead. The economic moat is widening

[philanderer] 10/2/2016 09:20

10 Feb 16 Bryan Garnier Buy tp 1316p

reiterates

[sheep_herder] 10/2/2016 09:17

market sniper3, not a lot. Add up the iPhone, iPad, Apple TV etc shipments for the quarter and divide it by the 240M A-class cores shipped. Remember that the A-class is again a small percentage of the overall shipments, although the royalty rate will be higher and there will be multiple CPU classes in the high end devices.

I would have thought ARM would be more exposed to Samsung and Mediatech.

Gotta love the 750M GPU shipments in the year too.

[tonio] 10/2/2016 09:12

Well on non-golf-match days I rarely rise until Burlington Bertie time - my faithful chromebook used as a bedtop - and 891 looked a great buy price to me!

[philanderer] 10/2/2016 09:02

Support at 850p.......

morning everyone. Glad I didn`t drag my @rse out of bed early for this one ;-)

[tonio] 10/2/2016 08:52

I try not to worry too much about day-to-day fluctuations in ARM - looking at the report ARM have been doing the right thing diversifying from smartphones and selling into a much broader market. Outstanding performance.
Thankyou great traders for creating yet another buying opportunity.

[market sniper3] 10/2/2016 08:50

Query, what % of ARMS trade in general is with Apple?, can anyone help please.

[market sniper3] 10/2/2016 08:49

General Bear market sentiment of the whole market.

Good firms getting clobbered with the bad ones.

[eldermon] 10/2/2016 08:37

FY and Q4 results announced today, showing increases, and with more shares bought than sold, I don't know either.

[stevenrevell] 10/2/2016 08:22

Why the drop

[philo124] 10/2/2016 08:01

"investing inorganically" new one on me. Mergers and Takeovers I guess.

[steptoes yard] 10/2/2016 07:41

divi up 25% starting to return bunce to shareholders

[steptoes yard] 10/2/2016 07:23

eps 30.2p pretty much in line

time to look at the guidance

[lucas5950] 09/2/2016 19:01

I had a top up at 929 yesterday. Couldn't let the opportunity pass :D

[tonio] 09/2/2016 18:47

Well, it was also at the same level in 1997 - the performance of FTSE over ~ 20 years has been quite woeful. Compare the FTSE 250 which has,despite recent falls, increased by a factor of 2.5 over 20 years. I suppose reinvested dividends will have made a difference, but on the face of it,a good FTSE 250 tracker has a lot going for it (plus of course a few individual company picks like ARM).

[philanderer] 09/2/2016 18:03

FTSE100 has finished today at its lowest closing level since November 2012...........worst start to the year since 2008

[tonio] 09/2/2016 16:43

Well, quite a good recovery so far from that opportunistic driving down of the share price Be interesting to see the earnings release tomorrow.

[philanderer] 09/2/2016 09:18

ARM : World’s No.1 Computing Ecosystem Running on ARM at Mobile World Congress

[philanderer] 08/2/2016 20:34

AAPL now +ve stateside , ARMH off the bottom.

[philanderer] 08/2/2016 11:53

FT Alphaville:

ARM Holdings PLC (ARM:LSE): Last: 936.00, down 47 (-4.78%), High: 982.00, Low: 925.50, Volume: 2.38m

BE
Yeah, there's the Imagination readthrough, though there's not much of that.

BE
More pressingly, perhaps, it seems the consensus is drifting a bit lower ahead of Wednesday's earnings.

BE
Here's BMO, for instance.

BE
For ARM, we are adjusting our 2016 estimates due to lower USD/GBP exchange rate partly offset by lower USD revenues. Our USD revenue estimates are based on lower smartphone unit shipments than we were previously modeling. Our 2016E EPS goes to 35.7 pence vs. our prior estimate of 33.5 pence. We are also introducing our 2017 estimates including USD revenues of $1.87 billion, up 11% y-y, reported revenues of £1.30 billion, up 13% y-y, and EPS of 40.2 pence. Our 2017 estimates are based on a USD/GBP rate of 1.44.

For 4Q15 and 1Q16, we are largely in line with consensus. For 4Q15, we expect USD revenues of $399 million, up 6% q-q. We expect reported revenues of £259 million, up 6% q-q, and EPS of 7.9 pence, vs. consensus’ estimate for revenue of £263 million, up 8%, and EPS of 8.2 pence. For 1Q16, we expect reported revenues of £262 million, flat q-q, and EPS of 7.8 pence, compared with consensus’ estimates for revenue of £263 million, flat q-q and EPS of 8.1 pence. Our 1Q16 estimates are based on a USD/GBP FX rate of 1.52, vs. our 4Q15 rate assumption of 1.54.

BE
And Credit Suisse.

BE
For ARM, we expect Q4 group revenues of
$399mn (+6% qoq/+12% yoy) or £262mn, driving EPS of 8.22p. Within this, we
assume Licensing sales of $139mn (+10% qoq/+0% yoy; in-line with consensus).
For Royalties, we model $192mn (+4% qoq/+28% yoy; vs. consensus at
$195mn). While we acknowledge concerns around slowing smartphone unit
growth, given royalty rates remain on the rise and long term opportunity around
Networking, IoT and Auto, we believe ARM can deliver ~10%/15% sales/EPS
CAGR over 2015-2018, and hence we maintain OP.

BE
Smartphone + Tablet unit growth slowing; Royalty rate to provide offset....
Given ARM reports royalties by a quarter lag, we note that global smartphone +
tablet unit shipments grew 5%/3% yoy in Q315/Q415 (clear slowdown from
12%/10% growth in Q1/Q215). However, with ARM outgrowing the smartphone
market and overall semi market materially driven principally by content increase,
we expect this trend to continue. As such, we model Royalty growth of 28%/20%
yoy for Q415/Q116 (corresponding quarters). Beyond that, we see some level of
deceleration with royalties growing at 14% yoy over the remainder of 2016.

BE
…but will it be enough? Consensus seems high on Royalties; FX a tailwind
on EPS. For 2016, we model US$ Royalties to grow 15% yoy, below consensus
at 20%. Specifically for Smartphones (~55% of Royalties), we model 17% growth
in Royalties which assumes 5% smartphone unit growth, 5% decline in chip
ASPs and royalty rate rising from 1.75% to 2.05% due to increasing penetration
of 64-bit and multi-core processors. Given we expect limited benefit from royalty
growth in newer verticals like Networking or Auto in the near term (as it may take
longer to benefit), we believe consensus at 20% Royalty growth may prove a bit
high. But on the other hand, GBP/USD has moved from 1.52 for Q415 to 1.45
currently, so a 4.5% move in FX can theoretically imply around 7% potential
upside to our EPS estimates, which are 5-7% below consensus.