Arix Bioscience Share Discussion Threads

[rimau1] 09/1/2024 10:05

We are essentially RTW paper holders now so i am personally feeling the benefit. I even topped up my Arix position this morning!

[makinbuks] 09/1/2024 09:54

No benefit for Arix holders, just sweetens the deal for RTW

Wonder if ST read my post703

[rimau1] 09/1/2024 09:46

Sale of Harpoon (5.8% ownership) nets Arix approx £31m. Very nice return on a high single digits investment (maybe £9m post latest funding round). Biotech has started the year well with plenty of M&A.

[rimau1] 08/1/2024 17:26

ST column tonight highlighting the arbitrage opportunity here, should kick-on tomorrow.

[hpcg] 08/1/2024 14:48

Big pharma recognising that biotechs were at multi-year lows and have probably turned the corner.

[pejaten] 08/1/2024 14:20

Harpoon got taken out by Merck today at 23 per share, 2x price of Friday and 3x price last October. Pity it was only a £4m investment

[makinbuks] 05/1/2024 09:40

RTW is being tipped in a number of periodicals , notably Questor in yesterdays telegraph. It would seem a no brainer if you were minded to buy RTW to do so by buying Arix

[mirabeau] 05/1/2024 09:25

PRTC next to be taken out after ARIX

[hpcg] 05/1/2024 09:22

djderry - I will very likely be voting in favour now, though I would really like to hear what Weiss recommend. To be honest though, my default is that they have bought in happy with the deal as is. Biotech has been in a 2 year slump. RTW has 8% in cash per the November factsheet, and has been making NAV accretive buybacks, with an enormous amount of headroom left on its authorisation.

Price action shows willing buyers absorbing willing sellers and sharpening price to encourage more of the latter. Not a huge number of trades per day though, it should be acknowledged.

[houseofpain1] 05/1/2024 07:40

Notorious activist Weiss popping up on the register yesterday with just over 5% of the company. Things about to get interesting...!

[djderry] 05/1/2024 07:18

No,I don't want shares.I want a cash return.And valuing Arix at £1.50 is preposterous. Do minority shareholders have any rights at all?

[frazboy] 21/12/2023 08:59

We're due an update from the company soon (see below). Given the value of RTW's stock it's very compelling to vote in favour (as we currently stand). I note that no approval is required from RTW's shareholder, only Arix investors need to vote it through.'It is currently envisaged that the Circular and notice of the first general meeting setting out the details of the Scheme and seeking shareholder approval for the Scheme and liquidation will be sent to Arix's Shareholders in the fourth quarter of 2023, at the same time as the publication of a prospectus by RTW Bio in respect of the New RTW Bio Shares. The first Arix general meeting is expected to be held in early 2024.A full timetable and further details of the Scheme will be set out in the Circular to be published by Arix in due course.'

[ohisay] 19/12/2023 10:55

More Arix buying this morning against the 'RTW paper' price of £1.50 which is nominally more than Acacia are getting !

Maybe the market just thinks (in RTW's case) that they get the Acacia stake (and the extra cash) without the rest of Arix
And in Arix's case that the Arbitrage is currently just too large to ignore ?!

[ohisay] 19/12/2023 01:42

Yaron Werber, M.D., managing director and senior analyst at T.D. Cowen was a bit more blunt: “Capitulation has happened.”

2023 has been defined by a seemingly never-ending cascade of poor market performances and indicators. More than 180 biotechs and pharmas collectively laid off thousands of people, while others shuttered entirely. Private financing dropped substantially. A select few braved Wall Street with IPOs but the vast majority held out hoping for better signals to come. The federal government ramped up its fight against drug prices and the surveillance of biopharma deals.

The industry may have finally reached a bottom, according to Werber

[sphere25] 15/12/2023 16:35

You can't get the civil, etiquette following buyers in this day and age ohisay. Friday afternoon?

Imagine if Harry Enfield were in the pub talking about this at the weekend: "Oyyy buyer....nooooo......you don't do that on a Friday afternoon....you do that on a Mondayyyy....you complete and utter.....*"

Well, we can't quote the rest but it looks like this will go 116-119 and then maybe 116-120. It will then depend on if this buyer wants more or the market thinks there is something more to this and wants to buy through 120.

It could go stale at 116-120 too.

Find out next week.

Hopefully this is a good calculated position for you ohisay and others.

I'm done.

All imo
DYOR

[ohisay] 15/12/2023 16:17

Sphere you are a man after my own heart!

[sphere25] 15/12/2023 15:50

I was trying to switch off but then someone decided to come in and buy 600k @ 117p here and I thought....who does that...who does that on a Friday afternoon when we are all just trying to get into the weekend....and......oh spew, have to follow that in for a little go.

So I'm in at 117p to see if that means anything and a possible repeat of the last go here up into mid 120's.

Exit if it doesn't push on.

Worth having a go nowadays, most long trades seem to be working.

Watch it go dead now!

All imo
DYOR

[ohisay] 15/12/2023 13:25

Yes if the Fed is signalling a more benign interest rate environment that is very positive for Biotechs which I know to my cost have been hammered across the board these last 2 years.
Equally on the face of it with a paper deal worth 146p per share to Arix on current RTW share prices the arbitrage 'gravy' is starting to look attractive (to use one of your descriptions)
You cant buy Arix now below 117p.
Its not a bad punt ...leaving aside the shenanigans around the BOD.
So one way or another its not a bad idea to have a position here.

[hpcg] 14/12/2023 09:22

I'm getting more positive on the deal. It is not inconceivable that biotechs could get out of their multi-year slump, in which case exposure would be much more better than cash.

[ntv] 14/12/2023 09:16

RTW nett assets rose by 11% in the last month

[skyship] 13/12/2023 13:59

85p/share CASH!

[skyship] 13/12/2023 12:55

That 177p NAV figure published today is a false figure. It's not a con deliberately
lowering the NAV to make the RTW bid look more generous than it really is, as
they've always done it. But in the current bid circumstances they should declare
that the net assets of £229.1m has been divided by the issued shares of 124.175m
PLUS the unissued 5.08m restricted shares (see Note 10 of the 27/09 Interims).

It's a false figure because if you include those 5.08m shares then you should add
the capital to the Net Assets for the sum raised by their issuance, ie 5.08m x 180p
= £9.14m.

Either way you cut it, the NAV should be declared at the true figure of 184p!

[frazboy] 13/12/2023 09:35

And I’m not sure I accept that there will be a significant short/medium sell off in RTW’s shares should the offer go through. According to IG RTW futures (if that’s the correct term) are trading at a premium to current pricing. May just indicate incorrect pricing of those too.

Interesting times.

[frazboy] 13/12/2023 09:31

Indeed. Current value of the bid is around £1.44. Market seems to be saying it's not going to happen but it won't be replaced by anything better. In fact, significantly worse. Odd.

[nakedmolerat] 13/12/2023 08:05

when you see the nav report of GBP1.77 and then what is being offered by the board, jeez