Arix Bioscience Share Discussion Threads

[lennonsalive] 24/8/2023 09:43

Starting to drift, closed my small position in profit. Good luck to all holding

[makinbuks] 22/8/2023 10:26

Well they've got to come up with something pretty positive because this has held up pretty well in the recent market weakness which is because action to substantially close the discount is expected. If it doesn't happen these will quickly return to sub £1 cash on the BS or not

[mr hangman] 22/8/2023 08:51

Well while the BOD are picking up full salaries, I would imagine,..years

[lennonsalive] 22/8/2023 07:06

Wonder how long a strategic review will take?

[reabank] 07/8/2023 12:56

I've held this for a couple of years now and nursing nasty losses. I bought in hoping that one or other (or both) of the large drugs companies with development deals with Artios would decide to trigger their rights under the contracts and we get a significant increase in NAV. However, we are still waiting on trial results from Artios which were supposed to be released in the first half of 2023, Mark Chin the CIO forced out by shareholders and then forced back in by Accacia has (again) left the company to pursue other business interests and Arix has announced a strategic review, I have no firm evidence but I am less confident that there is significant additional value in Artios. I'd say a realistic but cautious break up value of the company would be cash of £100m, quoted equities at a 20% discount to market = £50m and unquoted at a 50% discount = £30m. Total value of £180m which is a 20% premium to the £150 MV shown on the LSE site. I'll hold for the moment but suspect sometime fairly soon will look to cut my losses.

[mr hangman] 07/8/2023 12:35

Deep down we all know the outcome of the "review" the directors will do absolutely nothing, but keep taking their cash

[makinbuks] 07/8/2023 11:01

77p of the £1.84 NAV is cash.

NAV is up 3.4% this year to date

[lennonsalive] 07/8/2023 10:59

Nav down last mouth by a few pennies. However still wonder what the outcome of the review will be.

[makinbuks] 01/8/2023 14:05

Yes I agree. The trouble with a cash redemption for DSM is the liquidity of their microcap holdings albeit they hold a fair bot of cash, 16% or so without checking. In Arix's case the cash is so great I see no point in delaying

[ohisay] 01/8/2023 12:41

For interest this is what DSM (an investment trust)decided to do about its NAV disconnect.



The board of Downing Strategic Micro-Cap (DSM) for example have bought back an amount equivalent to c 4% of the number of current shares in issue over the past 18 months and this has contributed to the discount narrowing from a nadir of c 26% in October 2022 to c. 16% at the time of writing.

However, there are other more radical steps a board can take which have the potential to add significant amounts of value in the case of a stubborn discount. DSM’s board has gone one step further by reaffirming its commitment to a cash redemption point in May 2024 and promising a strategic review of the trust if this is fully subscribed. Next year’s cash exit facility will allow investors an opportunity to redeem half of their shares in cash at NAV in just 10 months.

Maybe good idea too - to do it in around a years time when some of Arix's investments are nearer inflexion points?
Arix already up 17% since they announced the Strategic Review .
Intentions matter!

[makinbuks] 18/7/2023 10:30

Strange one for Ruffer to hold and even stranger the timing of their disposal. Must be kicking themselves

[skyship] 17/7/2023 16:23

"Ruffer sold 80,000 shares".

Thanks for that - somehow missed the important bit!

[makinbuks] 17/7/2023 15:24

"Ruffer LLP now controls the voting rights over 6,440,000 shares (less than 5% of the voting rights) of Arix Bioscience plc which are held by the discretionary clients of Ruffer LLP and its subsidiaries (the voting of which is all controlled by Ruffer LLP). This change from 5% to less than 5% is due to the sale of 80,000 shares by Ruffer LLP on 14 July 2023."

Ruffer sold 80,000 shares, what doesn't make sense?

[skyship] 17/7/2023 15:05

Can anyone make any sense of that Holdings RNS?

[makinbuks] 14/7/2023 09:26

I agree, I like SKYSHIP's idea of around a third at £1.75. Could probably go further if you sold some of the quoted shares. Seems an easy and obvious first step

[value hound] 14/7/2023 08:45

If that's the case (and I'm sure you're right Makinbuks) then it's the ideal time to put all that cash to work and do a tender offer?

[makinbuks] 14/7/2023 08:38

I think we are all frustrated by the discount but the valuations attributed to the investee companies are not an Arix issue. We are in a bear market for biotech surely it is the wrong time to sell out. What's the hurry? I think what disappoints me is that they haven't found opportunities in this bear market to deploy the cash.

On the other hand if the board sold the quoted portfolio and found a buyer for the private stuff either in whole or part I would applaud their efforts. I imagine that would raise 80 -90 % of the current NAV

[ohisay] 14/7/2023 02:12

In a nutshell....


Arix’s assets include a £71.2mn (55p) listed portfolio of mainly Nasdaq-quoted biotech companies, £65.8mn (51p) unlisted portfolio, £2.8mn (2p) of legacy assets, and a £101mn (78p) cash pile. The listed portfolio and cash are worth 25 per cent more than Arix’s market value, de-risking the investment case.

[value hound] 13/7/2023 15:43

Re-tipped (inevitably) by Simon T.

"It’s a classic Ben Graham value play, hence why I included the shares, at 110p, in my 2023 Bargain Share Portfolio. Arix’s cash pile backs up 73 per cent of its £137mn market capitalisation, leaving a £140.8mn portfolio of biotech investments in the price for £36mn, or 75 per cent below their carrying values"

[lennonsalive] 13/7/2023 07:44

What did he tip it at originally? 180-190p

[spectoacc] 13/7/2023 07:40

Ramper Tommo will absolutely love it, will get repeated mentions (with little mention of the price when he first tipped it).

[lennonsalive] 13/7/2023 07:39

I suspect this will get picked up by tipsters and sheets over the week

[ohisay] 13/7/2023 07:23

Nav in June was well up ..but listed unlisted assets discounted by almost 80 per cent (after allowing for cash) prior to this announcement.Bought some this morning.