Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davidspringbank] 04/11/2019 12:06

Things are looking up so I've doubled my investment here today.

[pauliewonder] 04/11/2019 11:40

May have times a purchase right for once ;)

[charles clore] 04/11/2019 11:36

Financial figures this month should be interesting.

[alwaysevolving] 04/11/2019 11:23

Looking better

[thanksamillion] 04/11/2019 11:20

11:45 timing fits in with one of the share price lifts on friday.

another 250k just gone through.

[mcmather] 04/11/2019 10:53

Is that 2 further late 1m trades from friday?

[thanksamillion] 04/11/2019 09:19

Hmmm, delayed reported trade of 475k, I had wondered what give the share price a lift.

[crossfirecssf] 04/11/2019 08:49

2tyke, appreciate your take. Not sure if you were the one that also called premature on my own last breakout call at $1330 breaking to $1440, and I certainly don’t make any claims to being a chartist, but it did (probably more luck than judgement) pretty much happen to the dollar.

Again, let’s see what happens... only time will tell. We have varying opinions, which is what life is all about. Happy to be proved wrong or right, it’s no big deal to me. All that matters is that sooner or later, it’s happening.

[2tyke] 03/11/2019 16:22

Crossfire
Gold is in a contracting triangle and had definitively NOT broken out yet.
It won't break out yet for about another 8 sessions.
The thrust higher on breakout probably won't reach your target.....but it will be golds final move in the upwards direction....for many years.

[bigglesbingham] 03/11/2019 11:17

Thanks for the projections they reiterate my thoughts that when This breaks out the price won't drop back violently as it would be backed by sound fundamentals. Interesting that your prediction via accounting methods is very similar to Panmure gordon's short term target price of 5p but calculated totally different method via value of individual assets. Very exciting times ahead imho.

[crossfirecssf] 02/11/2019 17:49

Dejavu. Gold right on the cusp of breaking out towards $1650-60. Very surprised $1500 didn’t quite get us moving, but I’ll eat my socks if $1660 fails to ignite us and the whole sector.

However I’ve given up applying fundamental stock behaviour to any share that I own.

In terms of the breakout, gold technically has already, but $1520-30 certainly confirms in my view. Getting slightly excited again...

[m20ash] 02/11/2019 17:44

Hi Mick, yes I do. They just have to get to a position where the Plc has distributable reserves i.e. retained profits.
I don’t expect them to go down the route of a Court Order to allow a capital reduction to release share premium reserves as this requires purchasing shares at the nominal value of 0.1p per share, which is obviously below current market value.
Also, with the right permissions, a share buyback, involving repurchasing shares from the marketplace is possible, but this has to be done at a price lower than the original average issue price in order to realise a gain and release share premium reserves to reduce retained losses and the average issue price (calculated by adding the values of share capital and share premium by the number of shares in issue) is less than the current market price.
So unless there is an additional mechanism of which I am unaware, the only route is to pay dividends from the JV up through the group to the Plc, which will create profit for the Plc and reduce retained losses. Once these become retained profits, a dividend can be paid.
It is important, therefore, to understand future JV profit and cash flow in order to understand when sufficient dividends can be paid to created those retained profits.
Cheers, Ash

[bigglesbingham] 02/11/2019 09:04

They have six their intention it to pay a dividend. The first step is an accountancy issue to remove certain obstacles to facilitate the future doc payment. MDV and Kerim have stated they are looking at doing this and I've no cause to doubt them.

[mick1909] 01/11/2019 20:45

Mash like the projected figures which I would say is being conservative on the silver and gold could reach over $2000 plenty rise left in the share price do you think they will pay a dividend eventually?

[swallowsflysouth] 01/11/2019 18:50

DJ, cannot remember, to long ago. Was near a horseshoe shaped sandy bay which had a sole large hotel where we were staying. The bay was surrounded by mountains, i remember a amazing storm where the lightning was bouncing from one mountain top to another, the rain so heavy it was difficult to breathe if outside.

[the deacon] 01/11/2019 18:48

Ash, thanks for the link on LSE. Makes very interesting reading.

[desertjoe] 01/11/2019 17:58

Swallows - That casino wouldn't have been in the Maestral by any chance? I was there in '77 (two years before the dreadful earthquake which wrecked Old Budva).

Casinos are prevalent in Nevada (as well as other things we won't talk about!). There are even slot machines in Las Vegas airport and in our village grocery too. We have a saying here that "casinos weren't built for winners". Nevertheless, with care you can have a little fun, enjoy chatting with visitors from all over the world and take advantage of better value meals than in "tourist traps" and of course have your fill of complimentary free drinks while you are playing your favorite slots...or roulette!

Hopefully AAU has today got over that dip so Ya'all have a Great Weekend. Regards DJ.

[m20ash] 01/11/2019 16:57

Hi Mick, if you or anyone else are interested, I have posted a link on the LSE board in the last 24 hours to my updated projections, together with the rationale behind the numbers. The updated version incorporates the interim results together with the Q3 production numbers with estimates for Q4 and H2 costs giving a projected JV profit for the year of c. £12m - £6m to Ariana. The forecast also projects forward through to 2025, incorporating Tavsan with profit forecasts, cash forecasts and potential impact on the share price Obviously, much of this is speculative based on the future POG and production numbers together with timelines for Tavsan, but it is a working document and will continue to be revised over time as information becomes available.
Format is in excel, but can be downloaded or edited in your browser, if you want to play around with the numbers.
If anyone has any questions, please just ask.
Cheers, Ash

[pauliewonder] 01/11/2019 16:24

Picked some up for my SIPP.

[bigglesbingham] 01/11/2019 16:18

Increase in silver production and the increase in gold price compared to the previous quarter, I may be slightly out but there or thereabouts

[pauliewonder] 01/11/2019 15:59

Thanks very much JD.

[jaynesdad] 01/11/2019 15:49

Hi Pauiie, hope Biggles wont mind me butting in to answer you. I think he is referring to revenue collected by the JV in Q3. We know the production figures in Q3 as they were published last week. Taking an approximate average price of AU and AG over the period 1/7 to 30/09 (the metal is sold as soon as produced so an average will be obtained) you get around the figure he quotes

[swallowsflysouth] 01/11/2019 15:45

Plas, yes i think 40p is feasible, not for a while however. Long haul still ahead.

[pauliewonder] 01/11/2019 15:31

What makes you say 11.5m. Is it an estimate given the increase in production and increasing price of gold? That would be a big leap.