Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[soulsauce] 14/6/2019 07:14

Thanks again Graylyn.

[catsick] 14/6/2019 04:14

The new website is very impressive for such a tiny company with a minimal corporate overhead, they have had excellent discipline from the years with no money and now they have the relative luxury of strong cashflow I think they will really surprise with the exploration done on the cheap, I also think they will be able to do some very good deals with buying into other junior projects from listed companies with zero cash ...

[paul280i] 13/6/2019 22:37

sfs, Kerim and MDV have said on several occasions that they have received interest in Salinbas, but would not consider a JV or sale until Ariana had investigated the extent of the deposit further. Kerim compared it to the piano stuffed with gold coins that was sold without the seller investigating its true value. The recent drilling may have given the information that the company need to realise the true value of our asset. Hopefully the shareholders meeting may shed more light on this.

[swallowsflysouth] 13/6/2019 20:45

Plas, regarding your 14586 post, you have raise a very interesting point, another meeting ! hmmm. One can only speculate. They are adjacent to a very interesting property owned 30/70 by Sandstorm/Lidya Madencilik. I have on many occassions wondered how the share price has remained sub 2p ? Profit taking ? 3rd parties accumulating shares ?
Who knows. Would it make sense for someone(s) to show a serious interest in our little old AAU's Salinbas property ? Anyone got any thoughts on the subject ?

[graylyn1] 13/6/2019 18:45

soulsauce...no probs, think this stock has legs! just my opinion.

here is a link to the full note

[soulsauce] 13/6/2019 18:07

Thanks for posting Graylyn.

[charles clore] 13/6/2019 15:34

JD - lol you may have a point there!

[jaynesdad] 13/6/2019 15:31

Charles - Bro, you always seem to be waiting for AAU to be just a little bit cheaper than they are. 1 reckon if they opened at 1.91 tomorrow morning you'd wait all day to buy at 1.90, if it were 1.86 you'd be waiting for 1.85!!

[charles clore] 13/6/2019 14:40

cats - I agree it does look rather cheap but this is normally the case with under the radar small caps like AAU. Tried to grab a few yesterday but MMs weren't playing ball. After this note I can't see the price dipping below 2p offer again. If it does I'll be waiting.

[graylyn1] 13/6/2019 13:57

Ariana Resources d Grande opportunity (from June BUY note)

Ariana offers investors something not often seen in the small cap precious metals
mining space: a profitable, cash generative precious metals production company
with a realistic and achievable growth profile. As noted previously, Ariana is the only small cap mining name that carries a Panmure Gordon Buy recommendation and
recent updates from the company provide no reason to change that view.


We have
refreshed our last virtual Q&A to revisit some of the questions we have been asked.
􀁦 Q1 Update – Ariana’s Q1 update gave us cause to increase our production forecasts
once again. Plant feed grades continue to exceed reserve grades at 4.83g/t vs 3.11g/t
whilst metallurgical recoveries at 93.7% continue to exceed our 92% assumptions. Gold
production in Q1 FY2019 rose to 7,296oz (Q1 FY2018: 3,762oz) significantly exceeding
our 5,980oz estimate whilst silver production of 84,109oz (Q1 FY2018: 15,985oz) also
exceeded our 70,890oz estimate. Operational costs at $399/oz also exceeded our
$450/oz target but more impressively, we estimate all-in costs for the Red Rabbit JV
(inclusive of project finance repayments) remains below $1,000/oz.

􀁦 Model updated – Following the positive Q1 Operational Update, we have undertaken
a review of the Ariana portfolio. After applying our new commodity forecasts as per
our recent commodity sector note “The Quarterly Nugget” and using a 10% discount
rate, we estimate that Ariana is currently trading on a P/NAV of 0.6x. In our view, this
discount is excessive given the low-cost and profitable nature of the operations at
Kiziltepe. Further supporting our view is that, at our 10% cost of capital, the long-term
price of gold to justify the current equity valuation is below $1,000/oz, further
providing support to our positive recommendation.

􀁦 Reiterate Buy recommendation with increased target price of 3.18p (2.82p) – Our
valuation, generated by using a blended average of NAV per share, earnings per share
and cash flow per share implies a target price of 3.18p (2.82p). Our approach to
evaluating Ariana has been changed to use the same methodology as that applied to
our senior gold equity valuations. The rationale for this change is to reflect, what we believe, is the final evolution in the Ariana investment case, from an exploration and development company to one that is also profitable and cash generative and is
therefore an acknowledgement of this evolution.

[catsick] 13/6/2019 13:49

Reads ok , everything conservative and heavily discounted, To me looks like its worth 5p

[soulsauce] 13/6/2019 12:37

Hey don't get me wrong Plasybryn I am just happy to see something finally 😉.

[charles clore] 13/6/2019 12:34

I wonder why someone is marking plas and soul's posts down. Can't understand that.

[plasybryn] 13/6/2019 12:25

Give it time soul. The people who need to read this and make decisions to buy in are busy folk. It will be on there to do list, perhaps over the weekend.

[soulsauce] 13/6/2019 12:23

Ahh there is life after all. A big 0.3p added after all that has happened yet they say exceptional value.

Small mercies and all that.

[plasybryn] 13/6/2019 12:20

Well not really Charles. It's usually close on annually. I must say I was expecting it after the Salinbas Phase One results, but they probably agreed to get it out earlier for the meeting on 27th.
Extracts from the Note I liked:
Still the only small cap mining name that carries a PG Buy recommendation. And now in with the big boys!
" Our approach to evaluating Ariana has been changed to use the same methodology as that applied to our senior gold equity valuations".

All forecasts beaten.

Target Price of 3.18p up from 2.82p will do for starters!

Like - " the shares continue to offer exceptional value".

I see the 2nd Ball Mill issue is raised again!

Production and gold figures used still pretty conservative. Easy to exceed imo.

Good stuff

[charles clore] 13/6/2019 12:05

blimey thats a turnup plas!

[plasybryn] 13/6/2019 11:57

New Panmure Gordon BUY Note dated 12th June out on the Web Site. 3.18p target

[soulsauce] 13/6/2019 11:29

Yes of course it is a requirement lol. But one that fits the bill surely. As your post quite clearly suggests they have not been until of late.

No I won't be going. I am going quite a bit further north than I already am during that week.

[plasybryn] 13/6/2019 10:05

Unfortunately as you know it is a statutory requirement to have a broker and a NOMAD.
Will you be coming to the meeting to express your thoughts face to face soul?

[soulsauce] 13/6/2019 09:26

Interesting final comment Plasybryn. So now should have been the time to have brought them in and not having paid them for over 3yrs for doing little or nothing, including not helping getting a better final raising away.

[plasybryn] 13/6/2019 09:16

I don't think this has happened before where we have had two Shareholder meetings so close. The last one was on 30th April, so just two months later we get another. OK there was the Annual General meeting, and normally Ariana use this as an opportunity to have an exchange with shareholders, but I see this decision as very encouraging. Given Salinbas Phase One results aren't due till early July, I'm wondering why they think it is so important to hold another full shareholder meeting before those results? What news do they want to discuss? This is clearly a very important time in the Co's development, with so many key milestones on the horizon. I'm sure they want to keep us closely informed about progress and future business direction, ensuring long standing shareholders, in particular, take full advantage of any long overdue re-rating. Just my supposition of course. I'm delighted we have been invited to Panmure Gordon and can see the recent award wining Kieron Hodgson face to face. He was the top ranked sector analyst in the Extel 2019 survey by corporates for the second year running and 3rd in the highly competitive institutional vote. It is now and in the future that we should expect P.G. to start to play their important roll. We are lucky to have such a long relationship with one of the best commodity brokers in the sector imo.

[graylyn1] 12/6/2019 18:44

Love or hate KWN a breakout will happen in PM`s you cannot keep repaying debt with more debt and expect to get away with it. Companies like AAU should really start to benefit when the gold price breaks through US$1400 this has been a long time coming and will catch a lot out imo.

[bigglesbingham] 12/6/2019 17:11

MMS building their book

[parvo] 12/6/2019 16:25

cant even get quote and deal - Barclays