Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[nov31] 02/5/2024 13:30

Here, Here Temujin. Ironically, given the pasting some have given MDV over recent months there were signs this morning that he understands shareholders concerns (not least perhaps because he owns 6% plus himself). MDV at least pressed Kerim on AAU remaining an AIM listed company and got that commitment. I think as Chairman he needs to consider the share price reaction to the presentation and convince Kerim that he needs to put more substance around this deal - something concrete re future dividend policy that the Company will adhere to (or alternatively be frank that their won’t be any) and something re financing and to what extent he is prepared to dilute present shareholders in that regard — a clear commitment to a limit on dilution for a number of years (ie bank financial outside that) might provide a) a base to the current share price and b) more confidence amongst current shareholders who wish to be persuaded that they should vote for the deal.

[sharenotes] 02/5/2024 13:28

At this rate, I wonder as to what extent Rockover has received notices from dissenting shareholders? Could this be stopped in its tracks?

[soulsauce] 02/5/2024 13:22

Quite right Temujiin but Charles forgets what he posts and swings wildly between positive and negative. It was only the other day he was back agreeing with me.
Good luck whatever you decide to do.I haven't fully made my mind up yet but given it has dropped again I might hold on for a bit in the hope the pfs lifts it.

[temujiin] 02/5/2024 13:10

Charles Clore, don't be so quick to dismiss the concerns of the disgruntled on this forum. I've been in AAU for many years with between 700k and as many as 3.2m shares, I had 1.5m this morning and now am thinking I may sell up completely.

I invested and did well, for the 50% we owned in mines Kizi and Tasvan, not 14% in the above and a potential mine in Zimbabwe in 3 or more years time.

If management are losing many like me then it's right to ask hard question of their plans imo.

[soulsauce] 02/5/2024 12:52

I have Charles 'we anticipate advancing to production within the next 3yrs' what more do you want me to say.
Believe what you want but you know Ariana have never been close to getting a project in on time.
Do you forget what you post Charles. I suggest you go back and read your own diatribe of recent days.
🙄

[charles clore] 02/5/2024 12:47

Soul - you still haven't answered the question of the deep divergence between the company's summary of where the Dokwe project is as of this morning and your estimate of the time to production. I have seen some naysayers in my time but never have I seen such a bunch of absolute non believers like we have here. Kerim will achieve his dream but it seems that nothing will satisfy the impatience of those who would rather sell up and invest in premium bonds, thereby losing value every year equivalent to inflation and watch the price tank rather than support our company.Watch what happens when the gold standard is reintroduced and assets like Dokwe, Tavsan, Kiziltepe and Salinbas come into their own.

[shortarm] 02/5/2024 12:46

The current 'churn' is AAU exchanging short term view shareholders for long term view shareholders.Whether that is by choice or by current age is a different matter!

[sharenotes] 02/5/2024 12:36

As one example, the comment:

*Furthermore, we are encouraged to note the significant interest that this has generated amongst our existing partners, and we look forward in conjunction with our partners to explore opportunities by which they may become involved in the development of Dokwe, as the project progresses towards feasibility.”

…. could be presented in a much more cogent and expansive manner.

[sharenotes] 02/5/2024 12:08

Dixi, of course, you are quite right. AAU needs a real professional to present this company in its best light. Such an individual won’t come cheap, but we need such an individual now. If more paper is to be issued then the share price needs to be maximised – this has to be part of the strategy moving forwards.

[dixi] 02/5/2024 11:59

I'm not so bothered about dividends, but it is the company that continues to stress this point for some reason. So to a degree it's about what they say / what they do. Capital appreciation would suit me just fine.

[soulsauce] 02/5/2024 11:57

'Advancing towards production within 3yrs'

Charles you have been invested long enough in mining shares to know how long pfs, bfs, obtaining funds and building plant takes and that is without any bumps in the road and with Ariana’s usual delay coefficient.

[soulsauce] 02/5/2024 11:49

Charles the guidance in the original rns said 3yrs but we know Ariana always take longer.
Go back and take a read

[sharenotes] 02/5/2024 11:32

If you are predominantly interested in dividends then there are plenty of options for you to invest in – I don’t see AAU as one of them. So, share price appreciation has to be the order of the day. Whilst the ‘Pinky and Perky’ show leaves a lot to be desired in that regard, there is enough substance here to propagate this desired outcome. The appointment of a ‘front-office’ chairman would be a good start!

[konil] 02/5/2024 11:29

jaynesdad, thanks for input.

yes he said c.a$100m.

seems a stretch to assume share price will remain at this level once 688m new shares issued, bwdik.

[jaynesdad] 02/5/2024 11:29

Charles
Good posts but I would point out that if you aren't dividend paying that may restrict the institutions interested in investment.

[charles clore] 02/5/2024 11:28

You say Dokwe won't be producing for at least 3 years hence? How do you work that out soul? We were just told that it's virtually ready to go to fs and it will be a straightforward extraction process. So it would be interesting to see calculations of your estimate to production of 3 years.

[shortarm] 02/5/2024 11:17

100 000 oz from Dokwe profit 1200 is 120 million dollars. PE of 7 divided by 2 billion shares allowing for some dilution is 42p a share. Then add in the current 2.5p lol

[jaynesdad] 02/5/2024 11:17

Konil
re point 4, if I remember correctly (and I was half asleep so may have misinterpreted)
KS said that post ASX listing the Mcap would be expected to be c.AUD100m. Approx AUD2 / £, so say £50m. Currently MCap is about £28m, so post Rockover issue $42 MCap if the share price remains the same. So another £8m to raise via ASX listing, maybe 350m shares?
That was very much back of envelope, feel free to shoot me down.

[jaf1948] 02/5/2024 11:15

Biggles,

In answer to your question earlier, I sold all on the belief that Ariana would not make me any money this year either through appreciation or dividends, and that I may be able to get back in later this year or early next year at the same price or lower.

I may be wrong but that is my rationale.

[soulsauce] 02/5/2024 11:13

And when do you expect these share price gains Charles, when Kerim admits earnings per share will be falling until Dokwe comes on line.
We didn't get an answer of when he expects it to be in production but we know it won't be 3yrs hence.

[charles clore] 02/5/2024 11:03

Why so pessimistic re. dividends? I'm more interested in the share price gains with institutions and other investors buying into the ASX listing. The divis will come later. People here seem very narrow minded and want to remain in the junior camp. Think big and it will grow big.

[temujiin] 02/5/2024 11:03

Fwiw, although we all know KS ability re finding hold, I've never been in the camp about him not caring about SH's, but essentially selling off our gold production again, this time to buy a long term project, doesn't do it for me, so have sold a third, ie 500k today. Will see whether to hold or sell after Q n A.

[jaynesdad] 02/5/2024 11:02

Soul
I am not super critical about the decision to buy into Cyprus as it seemed an affordable toe in the water away from precious metals into a more diversified asset which was aligned with the high profile green agenda. Copper has been a bit more bullish lately, though that could change. But, as far as I/we know, AAU didn't have a battle to get hold of its shareholding there which implies they may also not find it easy to unload, copper price is up but hasn't gone though the roof. Which is why I think that gaining full control and selling as a virtually turn key operation including Apliki is attractive, that would itself generate a chunk of cash towards the Zimbabwe operation. Although the presentation was in many ways bland, KS did explicitly mention Apliki which I liked. Dokwe could be good, but it could be a bridge too far but at least its shows ambition. Many, including me, have complained that AAU with attitude wasn't happening. We cant have it both ways, safe and prosperous rarely happens.

[dixi] 02/5/2024 11:02

I'm sure Kerim and Co will pull this off. But shareholders have to accept they are an irrelevance.