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[meanreverter] 06/9/2019 13:36

A quote from 2tyke: “Gold has followed the same cycles through it's [sic] history”.

From the context, it seems that the cycles 2tyke is referring to are cycles in the price of gold. However, through most of its history as a monetary metal, in particular throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, gold did not have a price, because gold was money. Only after 1971, when the final explicit connection between gold and the US dollar was finally severed, releasing gold to find a realistic level against the dollar, could gold could be said to have a real market price in terms of fiat currency.

The initial 1971—80 ~20-fold bull run was a singular explosion from the artificial level created by half a century of price suppression. The 1980 level was an overshoot, against a background of hyperinflation fears, which did not materialize — thanks to Paul Volker's imposition of unprecedented interest rates well into double digits. Since then, gold experienced a 20-year bear phase until ca. 2001 and a 10-year bull phase to 2011.

By comparison with the ~30-year 1980—2011 cycle, the 8-year action from 2011 to date looks like a sideways drift (as indeed it roughly has been in most currencies). From the above short history, comprising one full cycle (or arguably 1½ cycles at most), it is not possible to infer a regular pattern in the price of gold.

[jc2706] 06/9/2019 13:18

I think that comment was addressed to backmarker.

[bigglesbingham] 06/9/2019 12:48

I'm sure there's lots no one knows about !!

[bigglesbingham] 06/9/2019 12:45

Did I say that??? I said 2.8 - 3 p by Oct 18th. I certainly did not say it was a high! Early next year debt paid off, salinas tarsvan updates etc so no I don't think this will be a high. I do think there may be profit faking around this point as there always is.

[8rad] 06/9/2019 12:27

Anything else Biggles?!

[2tyke] 06/9/2019 12:26

backmarker
Sounds like you agree then that AAU is close to a high ?

Charles
The A-B-C ended late June at 2.6p

[bigglesbingham] 06/9/2019 11:50

I'm not ramping but if you look at what's due and next quarter results will reflect gold silver price , having good quarter production. Kizulkuck , mining results kiziltepe , poss tarsvan, JV updates, investment in alternative prospect. Looks excellent to me. Oh and debt reducing below 10m !!!

[charles clore] 06/9/2019 11:10

biggles - I will try for another 100k before then!

[bigglesbingham] 06/9/2019 11:07

I dont do charting but rnss due combined with the consolidation above 2p should take this between 2.8 - 3p by 18th October! Just a little prediction for you there!!

[charles clore] 06/9/2019 11:01

backmarker - so when does the A-B-C start?

[backmarker] 06/9/2019 10:59

ah, good, we get a clear wave 5ii after all. so now we can look for a wave 5iii to start soon and take us up towards 2.8p

[jc2706] 06/9/2019 10:41

Possibly there is but the market makers will be quick to mark it down given the fact that the price of gold came off sharply last night and in the absence of much buying.

[d1g3y] 06/9/2019 10:35

Big drop for small volumes this morning, unless there is a big sell that will show later

[1candc] 06/9/2019 10:11

It's your own collective fault if you persist in feeding this guys ego by engaging with him, he thrives on it, ignore him

[2tyke] 06/9/2019 08:53

Yes dixi

And it's even worse if you're looking in the 'wrong direction'

[2tyke] 06/9/2019 08:47

JC

I think I've worked out what you are trying to get over to me about the gold cycles.
But what i'm saying to you is this.
It doesn't really matter if the gold commodity bull cycle is 10 years, or 9 years or 11 years. Yes, it could easily vary by a few years, cycle to cycle.
Likewise, I don't need to know for sure that the gold bear cycle will be 20 years or 19 years or even 22 years....to know that gold is still almost certainly still in it's secular bear market.
Is that better ?
I suppose that if I were Esther Rantzen, i'd be calling you a ' jobs-worth'

[dixi] 06/9/2019 08:46

Yes - and as ever it fall harder than it rises. Makes forward progress painful. Shame.

[thanksamillion] 06/9/2019 08:44

Hopefully helpful suggestion:

Can we please get back to postings concerning AAU.

[jc2706] 06/9/2019 08:16

2tykes,

For goodness sakes, I have already shown how you cannot possibly state this for gold.

Enough is enough. Try using your head to actually think rather than using slavish doctrines that you clearly do not fully understand.

[soulsauce] 05/9/2019 18:06

Zźzzzzzz!!

[2tyke] 05/9/2019 17:10

JC

All commodities ( of which gold is one), follow a very very recognisable cycle.
This is generally 34 year cycle ( 13 years bull followed by 21 years bear). All commodities follow the cycle but with slightly differing bull/bear cycles. Crude oil for instance topped out in 2008, before gold in 2011.
Gold cycle is 10 year bull and 20 year bear. The bear cycle runs longer in ALL commodities and involves a lot of sideways movement. Silver is very consistent and predictable, although volatile.
I'm not surprised you don't agree with me about where gold is heading. At this point in the cycle....virtually nobody should.
Think contrarian....you'll be right.

[jc2706] 05/9/2019 16:13

Ok, one last attempt to build understanding. Gold has only been free to price discovery since 1971. You can argue against that as much as you like but you will be wrong. If you consider that gold has a 10 year bull cycle and a 20 year bear cycle then you have seen less than 2 complete cycles. You may consider that to be a sufficient sample. You would be wrong. You can choose to bury your head in the sand if you wish but that won't change the case that you are still wrong in assuming that this will be the way it is from here on.

[2tyke] 05/9/2019 15:02

The current consolidation could move a little higher Charles, yes.
But 61.8% is a very common re-trace level.

[charles clore] 05/9/2019 14:50

consolidation between 61.8 and 78.6% then? Let me get the old calculator out...

[2tyke] 05/9/2019 14:41

JC

Gold follows well established cycles. You won't change that by burying your head in the sand like the proverbial ostrich.

AAU

Now reached the 61.8% re-trace level of it's prior drop.