Arkle Resources Share Discussion Threads

[nur0mancer] 04/12/2003 08:40

I'm in for an initial stake on today's news

[maestro.] 04/12/2003 07:23

latest directorate change...see rns but quite a good assessment of the business and they seem quite positive for the future...could this be the trigger at last

[latifs100] 03/12/2003 20:55

cheaper than iqe, and has more cash balance, must be bargain, i will need to average down npw, bought 22p, now 16p .. first thing tom

[kiwihope] 03/12/2003 16:00

I don't think there's anything sinister about. This has had bad sentiment for 3 months or more. In some people's minds there are better opportunities elsewhere, so a continuous drift out. There hasn't been anything positive to stimulate buying.

Funny enough this doesn't actually worry me (even though I bought in at 21p or so). Nothing about the company has changed. Don't forget - the share price at any point in time is just a reflection of the balance between the numbers of buyers and sellers - it does not reflect the value of the company.

[jak1] 03/12/2003 15:58

Well, there's no support and peeps have been saying that since 4.00.
Just because a stock has fallen big time, does not mean that it wont fall no more. ( Quote Peter Lynch )

[playmaker] 03/12/2003 15:48

it wont get much lower than this in my opinion

[toffeeman] 03/12/2003 15:42

Just glad I set my stop at 18 - It's gone to where it should have (kot) and I would expect to see more people baling out now.

[jak1] 03/12/2003 15:38

Maybe another profit warning on the way, who knows. The small guy is always the last to know.

[nur0mancer] 03/12/2003 15:35

Looking for sub-16 Offer, will be interesting with Intel guidance tomorrow night

[dell314] 03/12/2003 15:27

Is everyone jumping ship or have we become the shorter's favorite trade?
Surely, this stock will appeal to the recovery funds soon?

Rgds
dell(battening down the hatches and manning the pumps)

[quraishim] 03/12/2003 15:24

Further drop...guys any opinion, as I did not expect my entry level so soon, or is it going to drop further??????????. IMHO....I suspect this could be the floor price but can be proved wrong...I will still be on the sideline.

[dontknowitall] 03/12/2003 14:11

And, as if to back my thoughts up, look at the price drop with tiny volumes (in comparison).

[dontknowitall] 03/12/2003 14:06

I'm still not convinced that 1.6m was a sell.

Having seen another large trade come in (850k), and putting this in my spreadsheet as a sell (with the 1.6m as a buy), this puts the market makers' books just about in balance again with them being -230k shares long since 5/11/03 (presumably in addition to whatever they had before then).

The price did not fall (today) in reaction to the 1.6m trade but only to the trades after this was reported. It didn't rise either, my theory being that the transaction mopped up the market makers' holdings from the last month.

In most other shares, a single trade of 1% of the company would have much more reaction than a small drop of 3% of the share price. It would have been nearer 10-12% in my experience.

Whatever, it's definitely puzzling.

[kiwihope] 03/12/2003 13:54

There's little doubt this market sector is recovering. ARC certainly has the money to take part ... has it the products and skills?

[quraishim] 03/12/2003 13:49

Dell and Nur....thank you very much for the information....My opinion is that it is in the verge of being an very over sold stock, I am monitoring hopefully wishing to get in....

[toffeeman] 03/12/2003 13:35

I am merely watching having exited when it went through my 18p stop a few weeks back, but I would have thought that if the market took the stock at 16 then they have a buyer at that level, or slightly higher. Otherwise I would have expected to see the mark-down to 15.5-16, bwtfdik

What I would say is that the previous lows have now been taken out and I see no support.

[mad4it] 03/12/2003 13:23

From the figures they released for results to 30th September and with cash burn taken into account from then I reckon there is approx 27p cash p/share.

[dell314] 03/12/2003 13:08

Q - from last quarterlies:
NAV 35.85p
NAV without intangibles 32.45p
Cash 28.25p
All from my spreadsheets, so hopefully I put the right figures in!!
You'll need to do the calcs yourself if you want to update for recent cashburn.

Seeing those trades certainly doesn't help sentiment but I'm still convinced they are old trades from the 19p to 17p fall or possibly matched trades, as I can't see MMs paying 16p for those kind of volumes after the recent minimal trade volume.

Rgds
dell

[nur0mancer] 03/12/2003 13:04

quraishim, agreed, 16p may provide a floor of some sort if we ever get there. Problem with this share is lack of Beta, it just slides at a rate comparable to continental drift - no obvious downspike climactic bottom.

Gotta be a few peeps fixated on this share awaiting the moment to strike, but will we recognize it when it hits?

[quraishim] 03/12/2003 13:00

Could someone give me the NAV for ARK....as I understand they have a substantial cash reserve......Thanks in advance.

[quraishim] 03/12/2003 12:57

Who ever is selling is a fool and it looks to me a forced sell.....present price is definately under pressure.....well I will wait myself for an entry point at 16p if it happens.

[nur0mancer] 03/12/2003 12:51

re. post 311 - question is why would an MM be willing to offload a (relatively) huge portion of shares at well below prevailing market price? To sell them @ 16p, an MM would be looking to buy in shares at BELOW that price to cover their costs & generate a profit on the trade. Thus the Bid would have to fall sub-16.

I reckon a likely scenario is a matched trade, one party wanting out at any cost - 16p - & MM having found a willing buyer at that price, else price would be hit harder. Whoever that buyer may be, wish I had their clout ;-)

[kiwihope] 03/12/2003 12:49

Whether it's a buy or sell is largely irrelevant. The trade occurred at 16p which is lower than the posted bid. That indicates the current price is under pressure.

[dontknowitall] 03/12/2003 12:28

dell314

I thought somebody would ask!

:)

Bear in mind this: when one deals at well over normal market size (NMS), you can negotiate a price with the market makers. This does not mean that a deal will appear within the spread of the price at the time the trade is registered.

You could well be correct at this causing the drop from 19p.


My thinking is this.

I've tracked the trades since the beginning of Sept and on 5/11/03 the buys and sells matched each other. Since then, net selling reached -800k shares just before this trade. The lowest point occurred on 26/11/03 when net selling reached -1.6m shares.

This 1.6m shares equals the trade today and if today's trade was a buy, then the market maker books would balance again.

That's my thinking but there are other things to bear in mind and these will make today's trade appear to be a sell.

On 26/11/03 there was a 500k buy (at 18p). There have also been the odd hefty buys since eg 200k, 100k but these have been offset buy a hefty sell of 250k on 1/12/03.

It is anyone's guess, but I mentioned it because one can never tell for 100% certainty as to whether these large trades are buys or sells.

If this 1.6m trade was a sell that means they now have around 2.4m shares which is by far the largest number of shares they've held since the beginning of Sept.