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[dontknowitall] 03/12/2003 12:28

dell314

I thought somebody would ask!

:)

Bear in mind this: when one deals at well over normal market size (NMS), you can negotiate a price with the market makers. This does not mean that a deal will appear within the spread of the price at the time the trade is registered.

You could well be correct at this causing the drop from 19p.


My thinking is this.

I've tracked the trades since the beginning of Sept and on 5/11/03 the buys and sells matched each other. Since then, net selling reached -800k shares just before this trade. The lowest point occurred on 26/11/03 when net selling reached -1.6m shares.

This 1.6m shares equals the trade today and if today's trade was a buy, then the market maker books would balance again.

That's my thinking but there are other things to bear in mind and these will make today's trade appear to be a sell.

On 26/11/03 there was a 500k buy (at 18p). There have also been the odd hefty buys since eg 200k, 100k but these have been offset buy a hefty sell of 250k on 1/12/03.

It is anyone's guess, but I mentioned it because one can never tell for 100% certainty as to whether these large trades are buys or sells.

If this 1.6m trade was a sell that means they now have around 2.4m shares which is by far the largest number of shares they've held since the beginning of Sept.

[dell314] 03/12/2003 12:13

dkia - I don't follow your logic that it could be a buy??
I'm guessing that it may actually be the sell that caused the drop from 19p to 17p a few days ago(as the price appeared to fall far too far on smallish trades IMO) but WDIK.
The MMs dropping are after the sell time so are possibly the result of seeing the sell appear.
All guesswork so DYOR.

rgds
dell

[jak1] 03/12/2003 12:12

Ouch, just seen that trade. Dont look good....

[dontknowitall] 03/12/2003 12:10

Risky, maestro.

But, as the saying goes, buy low, sell high. It ain't been lower than here before and the indicators are turning upwards.

[maestro.] 03/12/2003 12:04

is this the key to get in?...rise long overdue...

[dontknowitall] 03/12/2003 11:59

Actually, and I'm not being silly, that could have been a buy.

[nur0mancer] 03/12/2003 11:58

MM's are dropping and comdirect online Sell size has fallen to a paltry 10k

[kiwihope] 03/12/2003 11:56

Thats a big holder getting out - but it must be a matched trade. Otherwise we would have fallen by now. As you say nur0mancer ... not good.

[dontknowitall] 03/12/2003 11:55

But why no drop in price?

Perhaps the market makers have a buyer for these?

[nur0mancer] 03/12/2003 11:51

At last summat of interest, but it ain't good - 1.5M @ 16.0 delayed one hour

[nur0mancer] 03/12/2003 10:07

Anyone have any insight into bizarre behaviour of the MM MLSB prior to market-open? They seem to open their Bid above the preceeding closing Offer, then drop it down for 8am. It happened this morning, & also on the 24, 25, 26, 27 November.

Find those MM moves here:

[kiwihope] 03/12/2003 08:10

maestro ... there's been good news in this sector for weeks now. ARC is oblivious to it. The only thing that will move this is a rise in reported sales, or a positive trading update... sometime!

[maestro.] 03/12/2003 07:54

chip manufacturers forecast massive growth next year...might just get a little rise today but not banking on it..

[nur0mancer] 02/12/2003 10:27

AFX just out:
'FTSE 250 risers
...
ARM Holdings 134-1/4 up 2-3/4
Nasdaq influences; vague Intel bid talk; Chartered Semi upgrades Q4 outlook'

[kiwihope] 02/12/2003 09:14

nur0mancer ... Do you think that's the reason for the rise over the last couple of days?

[nur0mancer] 02/12/2003 09:12

kiwi, rumours of INTC interest in ARM (yeah right!)

[nur0mancer] 02/12/2003 08:57

anyone know which day the Intel statement is due?

[kiwihope] 01/12/2003 16:45

Your spreadsheet is probably pretty accurate dkia ... after all buys and sells must balance in the long run. But as you say, the lack of a price rise is probably because of a sell order(s). Maybe Paul Scott is getting out earlier than he said!

[dontknowitall] 01/12/2003 16:40

Oops - 250k sell.

I didn't think of a T trade coming in.

[dontknowitall] 01/12/2003 16:21

Hope you don't miss a rise. My spreadsheet's screaming for a price rise. Since I've charted this the mms have upped their price when net buying has been around 50k.

Since the last price change, there's been net buying of 615k shares, so far. It should have ticked up ages ago.

[nur0mancer] 01/12/2003 16:16

dkia, still watching but that's all I'm afraid ;-)

[dontknowitall] 01/12/2003 16:13

nur0mancer

Have you been tapping your keyboard again?

100k buy just gone through...