One look at the chart which only ever falls and that's probably reason enough not put most people off. That and the red flags from last year around slow deployment of capital and them taking unusually long to get the accounts done.
The share price looks like it's on a one way trip to the centre of a black hole. |
Added few, think size of fund probably biggest issue here, cant see easy solution to that. Maybe they could add say 20% gearing, not that I would be in favour |
3 lots for me this morning.
One crazy stock |
So another dividend (1.25p xd 17/11 paid 9/12). I'm usually against dividends being paid out of capital (it's how many investment scams work!) but when every 100p of capital is valued at 75p by the market I'll let it pass. I'm assuming the NAV hasn't fallen of course. |
I agree that the new NED looks very good. I guess the weakness in the share price in the last few weeks reflects the decline in SDCL. I would buy more (and may yet do especially if the decline were to continue) but don't want to put too many eggs in this one basket. It looks attractive to me but... And the trust is perhaps rather small for institutional interest. But can't help feeling that the discount is going to narrow sharply one way or another - and there is a continuation vote in Feb. Can't see investors wanting to hang on if the discount is any where near as large as currently provided the NAV is seen as reliable in the context of possible liquidation / wind down. |
 And some more at 70.6. It seems I'm the only buyer facing down the whole market. Perhaps I should ponder that a bit more.
A new NED today. A good appointment by the look of her CV. Maybe some of the premium to NAV at HEIT can rub off here ;-) Anything would help really.
"Janine is currently a Non-executive Director and Audit and Risk Committee Chair at Harmony Energy Income Trust plc. She holds an additional role as the Non-executive Chair at Public Power Solutions, a company which develops solar, battery and EV charging sites in the UK.
Recently at Accident Exchange Ltd, Janine spearheaded the development of a new electric vehicle services offering. And prior to this, Janine worked for three years as a Director at PwC within the Deals team, where she led on Net Zero Investment Strategy & Deals. This work at PwC included a focus on investment in the European energy efficiency infrastructure sector.
At National Grid plc where Janine spent 16 years, she was a member of the UK Executive Committee and System Operator Executive Committee as Director of Corporate Affairs. She has also worked as an independent adviser on clean technology M&A to investment funds. Janine achieved her Chartered Accountancy qualification (ACA) at Deloitte & Touche, where she worked within both the audit and restructuring departments." |
hmm. Some more for me this morning at 70.056 and 70.72
MM's seem to have plenty. |
Brought an initial tranche @72.5, seems very weak |
There is no indirect gearing. |
Does anyone have a handle on the indirect gearing via the investments AEET have ? |
What are people's thoughts on the Feb vote? Won't the vote either sharply narrow the discount beforehand !quite likely) or lead to a decision of shareholders to wind up (less likely, but highly profitable given the massive discount at present?). I am minded to add for this reason alone. Difficult to believe that the NAV is far off the true value. The vote is only 4 months away but seems not to have had any effect yet... |
CC2014, I fully agree with your assessment.
Now we need to convince the market, or at least 1 institutional investor to start buying shares and bring the price back up |
3.5p dividend for this year, which I assume will be 1p for the first half year, 1.25p for the third quarter and 1.25p for the fourth quarter.
Extrapolating that will be four lots of 1.25p for next year = 5p which is line with the original prospctus and makes sense given AEET will be substantially invested by around March and will be churning about a 8% return so paying out 5% is well covered.
5p dividend on today's buy price of just over 77p can't be bad, around a 6.5% yield plus a decent discount to NAV to close. |
I guess I have my answer.
Aquila buy 195k shares in relation to their investment fee and someone is happy to supply them without the share price moving an inch.
I guess Investec only have 23.5m left to shift now......... |
I thought the market reaction would be much stronger, but the large fund managers take far longer to think about things than you or I. Maybe they will appear later. That's why I went rushing in at 8:01 to buy. I guess 76.2p is a good price but with AEET you never know.
The most frustrating thing is there is never enough volume to really test how determined the sellers are here. It's hard to tell whether a flow of buys would push them back or not
It's also hard to tell how much of the sellers is Invesco wanting to shift perhaps millions or whether the sell volume which has mostly been small has been coming from elsewhere.
I do not know what to think really. All I know is that the sellers have been going on and on for months and months and it really would be nice to find out the level of committment from the sellers to keep going.
Thanks for pointing out AERS. I hadn't realised those trades at 88.5p were sells. I'm not really up for selling at that price but it's kind of in the area I might be tempted if I see some crazy low price on something else. |
Bought 4000 this morning at 77.8. Raised the cash by selling the other Aquila fund AERS because they are not my favourite fund manager at the moment. Dare not buy more because I've got far too many. On the other hand that 1p dividend is going to be several hundred pounds for me. CC2014, I think you're right about them being in the dog house but thought there would be some market reaction. |
Regrettably the floundering share price shows what happens once investors lose confidence. It's going to take a long time to shake that off, although I suspect once the dividend reaches 5p and it's 100% invested all will be forgiven.
SEIT is a large fund, around £1.25bn, fully invested and has delivered what it set out to do. The liquidity is good and it deserves it's premium share price.
TENT is a bit all over the place and I believe is suffering by having too many eggs in one basket with about 30% of it's revenues from one company, the largest tomato supplier in the UK. Obviously that's a challenging business to be in right now with shortages of labour and very high heating costs. It's market cap is small at around £100m, but has some interesting investments including Hydro and in deployment battery storage. I own a few. I paid 96p. The discount seems a bit harsh to me.
The investments in AEET look better than TENT to me. Certainly less credit risk and more diversified.
I would hope that by March 23 the discount here is down to 10% and I would expect it to continue to close slowly after that to less than 5%. The difficulty is that AEET really needs to get to a premia so it can issue more shares and I don't see how that's going to happen. Sure I can see it taking on some debt and getting the invested assets up to £125m but it's hard to see it getting anywhere near the AUM required for FTSE250 entry.
The immediate question is whether Invesco, the largest shareholder will stop selling out now they will get and income stream through dividends or whether they have lost the plot with the Board and just want out regardless. |
Thanks CC2014, at last some news that isn't bad.
I wonder what the 'normal' premium/discount to NAV will be. There are two other funds that are similar to AEET, although energy efficiency/transformation is a very diverse area of investment. TENT is on a discount of 10%, SEIT is at a 6% premium. I think we can all agree AEET is going to trade at a discount.
One thing in the half year report that slightly annoyed me was the comment 'The disappointing share price performance has yet to reflect the increasing level of commitments that the Company has achieved post period end'. I don't think they have the right to complain about OUR slow response to events!!! |
On the basis on the RNS of the dividend starting I bought some more this morning.
I've been adding too since my last post.
3.5p dividend this year plus 55% now committed and 32% deployed with substantial committment by year end all at a 8.1% return surely means the share price will go up at some point in the future? |
Bought a few more today. Felt like a safe place in the current environment. |
CC2014, if I had not invested in AEET the money would have gone into other Renewables/Energy Efficiency funds and US Treasury ETFs, definitely not the other 95% you mentioned! You do raise a good point about selling Renewables funds, when do we sell and even more important what do we buy? I agree that at this time AEET could be a long term buy, assuming Invesco isn't trying to get rid of the whole 25%! If they are voluntary liquidation of the whole fund should be at least considered. |
Or you could have picked on of the 95% of the other stocks which have all fallen since February as the markets collapsed and be very grateful to be sitting in AEET.
I see you point of view though. I've recently sold my FSFL and NESF bought in Feb and some other renewables and switched some into AEET.
A 20%+ gain on FSF plus some dividends along the way were enough for me on FSFL and at current prices I think the risk/reward has changed. |
Even if things go well from now on it's not going to make up for the opportunity cost of holding AEET. If I hadn't invested in this I would have invested much more in funds like JLEN. The small amount of JLEN I did buy in February is up over 20%, AEET is never going to be able to catch up, the relative loss is permanent. |
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