brwo349, I've bought some more at that price today. I would buy more but I'm already in very deep with this one. I just cant think of any outcome that doesn't result in a higher share price than this (unless they spend the cash on scratch cards). I suppose they wont publish the result of the review on April Fools Day but surely soon? That will remove the uncertainty and the shares can be correctly valued by the market. |
lol just look at the prices I'm being quoted for a 10K trade with ii
Sell 10K at £0.73905
Buy 10K £0.739049 |
For reference/the header:
(then click on Energy Efficiency in the Real Assets selection) |
 As I suspected, but had to dig through to pg75 of the prospectus to confirm. Skin in the game usually gets a big thumbs up from me...
Advisory Fee
Under the Investment Advisory Agreement, the following fee is payable to the Investment Adviser:
(i) 0.95 per cent. per annum of NAV (plus VAT) of the Company up to and including £500 million; and
(ii) 0.75 per cent. per annum of NAV (plus VAT) of the Company above £500 million.
During the first year of its appointment, the Investment Adviser has undertaken to apply its fee (net of any applicable tax) in subscribing for, or acquiring, Ordinary Shares. If the Ordinary Shares are trading at a premium to the prevailing NAV, the Company will issue new Ordinary Shares to the Investment Adviser. If, however, the Ordinary Shares are trading at a discount to the prevailing NAV at the relevant time, no new Ordinary Shares will be issued by the Company and instead the Company will instruct its broker to acquire Ordinary Shares to the value of fee due in the relevant period. |
Now 75.95p to buy and 73.48 to sell |
Am I not so optimistic, but at least we've got through 7 hours without the share price dropping.
The seller is getting some volume down here. |
It's possible we've bottom out now. The ask price has moved up slightly and I'm now getting quoted 75p to buy. |
CC2014: Did you receive any response to your request for more information (14th March) from the company ? |
Boystown - because it's mainly cash.
steve - yes, maybe that's it. but nobody's announced a holdings change. |
boystown, Not any that raised funds at 100p at IPO a year ago.
I also bought more today. The review cannot drag on much longer can it. |
Some fund managers do something called 'window dressing' as the end of their financial year approaches. They sell shares that have done badly and buy ones that have done well. When investors read the annual report they see a portfolio full of winners!
If this is the cause the share price should stop falling next month, assuming a 31st of March year end. |
Out of interest CC2014 - why is the discount here so surprising as loads of ITs are at similar discounts? Is it because it's in such an obvious growth area? |
An earlier suggestion you made, that a determined seller is at work, still seems quite likely. The real sells seem well-flagged: large blocks and on the bid. Smaller buys are still below half way. |
I have added to my position 3 times today including the trade at 72.95p.
I've got enough for now.
A 25% discount to NAV is just odd.
I'm not sure how the Board can just watch the share price collapse and say nothing.
Either there is market senstitive information which has leaked explaining the fall which they need to RNS or there is nothing of concern in which case they should issue an RNS saying so.
Edit: there's either something fundamentally gone wrong here in which case the share price is going to continue to fall or otherwise this is easy money.
I shall wait until the discount goes out to 30% before buying any more. (perhaps) |
There is no end in sight to this
You can now buy at under 74p |
It's a puzzle that's for sure. My kids are now the proud owners of AEET in their LISA's at 74.9p. The good news for them is that this is their first purchase of AEET, unlike me who started at the IPO. |
brwo - no, any authority to buy back shares would need to be approved at a shareholder meeting (eg. AGM) which they haven't had yet.
I doubt many shareholders would want that option.
steve - I'm not overweight here, but there should be a significant cash return at this level. The review was announced on 31 Jan, so a decision is well overdue. |
I've just got 3100 at 75p. I would get more but I'm already hugely overweight in this. Surely they have to be a bargain at this level? My theory is that the market now values AEET as a 'special situation' stock rather than a safe income stock. New investors are buying from disillusioned old investors but are doing so at a price that gives them the prospect of big profits. |
Do they have a buyback authority?
There is no point in buying anything other than their own shares at this level. |
SDCL ENERGY EFFICIENCY INCOME TRUST PLC (SEIT) has over £900m of assets and just raised another £100m in a placing of new shares at a premium of about 10% to NAV. AEET has less than £100m of assets and no prospect of raising new capital, it has no future in its current form, it is the investment equivalent of the Monty Python 'Dead Parrot Sketch'. It might be able to continue as a fund of funds where its small size could be an advantage but more likely it will merge with another trust. |
Someone wants out for sure. The trades look to me like the seller is going through It falls again. Whoever was wating for 75p it won't be long now... |
#59. I agree. That's a very simple way to resolve the problem and must be one of the options being considered.
My puzzle is though that it's now 7 weeks since they started this strategic review and that already seems a few weeks too long to draw the report to a conclusion.
It's the nature of these things that the outcome leaks and the share price tends to move in advance.
In our case the movement in share price is still downward. Indeed I suspect most of the share deals are PI's picking up what we perceive as cheap stock. Certainly a few have been mine.
It is possible the institutions aren't interested because the market cap is now significantly below £100m, but what is clear that the volume a few PI's are buying is less than the volume coming on the market. This is always a circular problem of course. If you think you can buy it tomorrow cheaper than you can buy it today, even if you consider the price to be excellent, you aren't in a hurry to buy.
What I can work out is the following:
1. If AEET merges with AERS, we likely get a merger at 97p a share, giving a 26% upside in the 3 months it takes to do the transaction
2. If AEET is wound up we get around 84p within 3 months and around another 11p within about a year allowing for some costs to wind it up. Still around 23% in a year but with most of the cash coming in earlier.
3. If AEET decides to continue as is without or without a wider investment policy it will take another year to deploy the assets fully. At that point the NAV will still be around 97p as I'm broadly saying the income will equal the management fee, but no dividend will have been earnt. From that point forward the dividend will be probably around 4% and ramping up to reflect a NAV return of 7-8%. It then looks like any other renewable trust and will over time get back to NAV and churn the dividends out.
I can't see any other options being agreed to by shareholders, unless the Board are considering removing the fund manager, which when I think about it would be a valid discussion. I would have to read the prospectus about whether Aquila can be kicked out at the first AGM and whether unfilled non-exec posts would impact this. |
The simplest solution might be a merger with AERS. The two aren't so different, but shareholders of both would need to vote it through. AEET shareholders would need to approve change to a simpler 'infrastructure' mandate.
Normally these things are done on the basis of NAVs, and the only numbers I have are AEET 96.92p (on 31/12) and AERS 99.4c on 30/06 (= 83.18p at current forex) so that could become:
1 share in AERS = 1 share in Newco,
1 share in AEET = 1.165 shares in Newco.
NB. AERS is trading around par. |
I don't see how this trust can continue. They'd have to justify their inaction. They've cost shareholders a year of income which is £5 million so unless they can prove the cost of buying their target assets are now 5% cheaper they don't have a leg to stand on. |
Options are;
1. Wind up Trust. Would give shareholders an exit at say 95p in time and after expenses but hard to see Aquila wanting to do that as they lose their fee
2. Broadening investment policy to become more of a mainstream renewable trust. I don't think investors would object to this but I'm not sure this would necessarily speed up investment.
3. Merge with another Aquila fund. This is possible. Could include a cash exit option
4. Keep Trust as is but committ to sorting out slow investment. Possible but would require imho a bit of a shake-up of the management team and/or Board who seem to have too many roles.
My guess is that by the time the review concludes AEET will have somehow magically speeded up the investments and around 25-30% of the cash will be committed and they will recommending continuting as is. Waiving the first years management fee would be helpful. |
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