A 250k trade appears at 80.8p. Unless some others arrive later it's hard to see it as anything other than a delayed sell from yesterday
It's the sort of size which would have accounted for the fall and if so one of the MM has plenty left to shift.
At least it probably puts a bottom on the share price |
At least there is now a cheap investment Aquila can spend all that cash on: Aquila shares! Seriously if a closed end fund doesn't buy its own shares in this situation then when? |
I am quite interested to see what happens now. A purchase at 81.3p plus stamp duty compared with the NAB at 97p is a discount to NAV of 15.8%.
That sort of discount to NAV for a trust which is 80%+ in cash doesn't seem right to me.
It's hard to say how much volume the seller has left to shift if any. I can see 2 decent sized sells at 82p and 80p but in the scheme of things to an instiutional investor that's nothing. |
Took 81.5p instead. If TRIG could make a bid at 95p that would do me fine. |
you should have waited. Now 81.9999p |
Getting stupid now. Just taken some more at 82.9p |
I've decided to write to their investor relations. I don't think the current situation is good enough. Amongst other things I shall be asking them to waive or reduce their fees for the first 8 months. |
Just bought 3000. The problem Aquila have got is that they've become a speculative investment in a sector where investors usually look for certainty. Aquila need to do a deal somewhere near NAV and quickly. |
Now 84.6p. I don't understand why they went quiet for 8 whole months with no update. It's like they didn't give a toss. Even if there was little activity they could still have updated the shareholders. |
85.4p to buy now. |
Cynicalsteve is correct- people have invested in a slowly diminishing pile of cash and now some non execs have resigned on principle which is rare and a red flag moment for Aquila management. The discount is tempting but justified by events. No reference to the IPO pipeline again. |
The fund manager had a huge pipeline to look at but yet has deployed only 15% of the cash. Either he's just incompetent or has been outbid or the deals on deeper investigation doesn't meet the return or credit quality.
My gut feeling is that there's alot of money flowing into this sector and it may be driving asset prices up which is good if you are already invested in something like TRIG but not so good if you are looking to deploy cash. A cautious and careful approach may not have been a bad thing if indeed that is what is going on.
I cannot see the large institutional investors putting up with the slow deployment though. They are either going to bail or force a resolution. I would bet the latter |
Thanks for flagging this up CC2014, like you I'm going to hold and perhaps even buy a few more because of the discount to NAV. It's interesting that the share price hasn't moved so far, it seems everybody already knew except for us small investors, maybe because of the resignations from the board. |
What happened to the 210m Euro advanced pipeline of deals mentioned during the IPO?!
Despite only raising £100m instead of the £150m they hoped for only a tiny fraction of the capital has been invested.
At least we know what we are investing in now: cash! |
Well now we know the reason.
I'll continue to sit in this position. The discount to NAV supports the share price to some extent.
The fund manager should better explain the reason for slow deployment or get a wriggle on. |
I also bought a few (first buy). One to forget about completely imo |
hmm. Someone is either giving these away for whatever reason or there is a problem.
I added. Again. I'm not sure whether I want it go lower so I can add again or whether I would prefer it to bounce! |
I see the poor share performance is due to the lack of updates. Certainly as an investor how do I make good decisions when there is a lack of information?
However, Aquila's other energy fund AERS is doing fine. £400m market cap and running at a 2% premium to NAV.
Sure, the 2% premium isn't what some of them are running on but I see a premium of 10% as excessive anyway.
In addition AEET isn't currently paying a dividend although this is due to start shortly. I think that puts the income investors off.
My guess is that the investment manager is quietly going about his business and slowly deploying the capital. In time as the dividend kicks in I trust the share price will return closer to NAV and I'm not bothered whether I get dividends or capital appreciation.
So, that's my rosy glasses scenario. Of course the fund manager could be sitting on the cash in which case the share price will go lower yet. |
The discount is what brought the trust to my attention as it compares unfavourably with other new Trusts in this sector.There may be misgivings around Aquila as their other Trust compares poorly as well. Needs an RNS |
finally figured out how to add the charts and other bits |
Hi Boystown. I was looking at SDCL ENERGY EFFICIENCY INCOME TRUST PLC (SEIT).
They floated in 2018 so they are fully invested and paying dividends. They are at a premium of about 10%
Aquila's investments are all European, it's smaller, it has no track record and is not fully invested (I assume) but even so I'm surprised that it's dropped to 90p. |
Many thanks CC2014.
This should be trading at a premium to NAV - why cynicalsteve? |
This should be trading at a premium to NAV (whatever the NAV is).
Either this is a bargain or somethings gone wrong.
If the IPO didn't raise enough capital a takeover from a similar trust around NAV would be a way out. The factsheet due next month should clarify things. |
I use this |
What's the discount and yield CC2014? I used to get my initial basic info from Morningstar, but they seem to have stopped doing this for ITs now, AFAICS.
Do you know a good source? |
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