Aortech Share Discussion Threads

[bones] 22/11/2018 16:04

Landy90, thank you for your detailed explanation which sheds a lot of light on the processes.

[the stigologist] 22/11/2018 14:53

re 2078

There are about 15m shares in issue

[landy90] 22/11/2018 14:51

The message regarding the valve leaflet is not that the old valve design did not work and we have to start again... that would have been bad news. I read this statement that they have something that works, they think they can make it better, be able to understand why it is better and be able to prove it to regulators. If they can also strengthen the IP position, that is a benefit too.

[bones] 22/11/2018 14:49

To be fair, I don't believe they are discarding their previous work on the valve entirely, but rather focussing on the ability they now have via VFT with all of the computational 4D modelling techniques and the knowledge of the experts now on the board to design from first principles the valve leaflets. These are the "flappy bits" in the valve. This decision seems to be in conjunction with ensuring that they have "start to finish" documentation fit for use with today's standards of approval.There are contributors far more clued in than I on this board (Landy90?) who may correct me but that seems to be the position.

[cfb2] 22/11/2018 14:09

£2.6m in the bank and 11m shares issued give a price per share of 24p alone. Throw in the existing IP (including a couple this year) and they are only 6 months into a 2 year plan. I would describe your prediction of mid 20s by EoY to be unlikely.

I have been reading through their interims again and trying to relate it to the 10% drop in the share price. I think their decision to redo their approach on the heart valve was "brave" but likely a sensible one given the background of their new team. AorTech had previously been touting the amount already spent and discarding that would not be taken lightly. Just using latest advances in computer simulated modeling are likely to overshadow previous research. Their goal is approval and my experience with medical device approval is that mistakes made at the start can easily lead to insurmountable or expensive redoing of trials at the end.

[bones] 22/11/2018 12:39

I prefer to focus on paragraphs like this:

”We have also made good progress in confirming both market need and interest in our products. At a recent European Cardiothoracic meeting of some 3,000 surgeons and industry players, we engaged with a number of parties, including key surgeons, large industry players and product distributors, and explained which products AorTech would be bringing to the market. Feedback was very positive and the market need was confirmed for both the valve and polymer coated textile products.”

[zoro9791] 22/11/2018 12:27

Belive me if the market see value it wouldn't drop 10%!!! I am not ashamed to say that I was wrong with timing but it is going nowhere just done. If some thing more reassuring not coming out soon from BOD that is back to mid 20p.I know people will say that I'll top up than, I say never catch a falling knife especially not in AIM.

[bones] 22/11/2018 12:16

No progression? This is a two year strategy and the heart valve is stage one in that period. The RNS today describes plenty of progression in that but this is still early in the process. That has always been made clear and everyone on here that is serious has also been clear on this.You got your timing wrong on your purchase and we are currently in a bad market where everything sells off that doesn't pay a big dividend. You have to be patient and trust in the management or, as Stig suggested, move on to something less stressful.

[zoro9791] 22/11/2018 12:16

It is like Brexiters. If somebody state the obvious get slaughtered. People feel they missed to cash out so their let the frustration talk. I have no significant amount of invested here so if I sell out 50% loss than I am fine with it.It's more about that I have to swallow the bitter pill that I was wrong.

[donalc] 22/11/2018 12:13

The word "but" did not appear in the report- Good.

Lots of small detail in report which worries me a little.- bamboozle with tech words medical jargon which can impress so we dont need to get to bit that really matters- Is the patient going to do well or not.

[zoro9791] 22/11/2018 12:02

I do not know why people need to be so rude. It is my opinion. Everyone have one. I didn't expect ten folds but no progression the last half year not good either.

[harrogate] 22/11/2018 11:38

Hi bones. I didn't say that licence income hadn't gone up but that the thought that there were lots of imminent NEW licences has slid off the narrative. I am ok with that is all I am saying as I didn't believe it on the first place! We may have some big hitters on board which is why we are all here after all. My view for what It is worth is that if this tech is what we hope then someone big will come along to fund it and do the trials etc. Time will tell of course

[volsung] 22/11/2018 11:24

Whenever I see a flurry of posts on AOR on ADVFN and twitter I just know there's gonna be a fall.

[cfb2] 22/11/2018 11:22

I was at a roulette table in Helsinki a few years ago and saw black come up 18 times in a row. It’s amazing how often people believe a red is ever more likely on the next spin!

Clearly black is much more likely, as the table is fixed :)

Only negative in the results is the increased burn rate but that's expected due to the larger team having had the company come out of hibernation. Fund raising covers this, I'm pretty sure the regulars on this board know that this is not going to be a short term investment.

[bones] 22/11/2018 10:56

On top of everything else, the stock market stinks right now!

[bones] 22/11/2018 10:52

Harrogate, the licence fee income did increase but that's not the fish they are now frying. As far as I can work out, the current medical devices strategy seems to be developing well and in plan. The grafts (not skin but internal organs?) represent 50% of the current price target of Stockdale in terms of anticipated developments over the next two years. I don't see that side as immaterial at all plus there is a line up of other devices to be exploited in the course of time. Of course the heart valve is the long term whale in the sea, that goes without saying.In the meantime, the licence fees are still covering much of the basic overhead albeit spending will increase on the new developments.Naturally, we all want to see bigger players collaborate but we have many big hitters on our side now who will be well placed to cultivate the relationships as things develop.I prefer to have a glass half full just now.

[bones] 22/11/2018 10:43

Zoro, you are in the wrong game I think. I was at a roulette table in Helsinki a few years ago and saw black come up 18 times in a row. It's amazing how often people believe a red is ever more likely on the next spin!

[zoro9791] 22/11/2018 09:57

Well I that was the BIG news than I well disappointed. Absolute no progress since July or at least not noticeable.It beginning to looks like another AIM share from the pump and dump scenario.

[harrogate] 22/11/2018 09:47

The key point in this RNS is what isn't there - there is absolutely no mention of any new licence deals or progress towards them on the core technology - this was despite some positive noises about this at the time of the fundraise. I am not surprised at all about this as I always thought that was just fluff. This is now a bet simply on the heartvalve ( I am not sure that the skin graft area is such a potential home run ) which I always thought. If it is real then this price is silly but we will need more money I would have thought and we need a little more news than "we have had to go back to square one as what we did originally isn't up to scratch" if we are to get that funding done at a decent price. All that sounds negative but I am not - All we need is a mention of some serious discussions / collaboration with a big league device player and we are sorted - we can't go too far on our own with this I wouldn't think.

[bones] 22/11/2018 08:59

All seems to be on track and it is good to read about some of the details as given by Bill Brown.

One or two headless sellers early on that seem to know nothing of the nature of their investment (longer term investment into the future).