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[diku] 12/1/2010 12:35

1022p short closed at 1000p..

[elssworth] 11/1/2010 20:29

The Prof remains unconvinced and see's manipulation as the main driver of the markets!!...UNTIL, they realise that we have found out...then its drip..drip.......drip................BANG £4.27!

Hope it helps
Fanks
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Is Fed Buying Behind the Stock Rally?
By Alex Dumortier, CFA
January 8, 2010

o we have the Federal Reserve to thank for the recent stock rally? The only logical answer is yes, according to TrimTabs, a research firm that tracks money flows in and out of the stock market. As I read the title of their report, I thought it might be a mad-hatter conspiracy theory, but the analysis is rather compelling. If they are correct, it could have significant implications for the longevity of the powerful rally that lifted the market from its March lows last year.

Following the cash
Here's the line of reasoning: U.S. stocks gained $6 trillion in aggregate market value starting in mid-March. According to TrimTabs, historically, increases in stock market value require a net cash inflow into stocks equivalent to 10% of the increase, or $600 billion in this instance. However, the firm couldn't trace the origins of anything close to that sum from among traditional market participants.

If TrimTabs is right, we're far short of the $600 billion needed to fuel the rally we witnessed. But would a central bank intervene directly in its equity markets? Although unorthodox, this has occurred (at least) three times -- in two advanced economies, no less -- since 1998.

[omalaha] 11/1/2010 17:56

This is baffling! I would let it run, only because of that 30pnt drop, we haven't seen that for a while. Maybe mug instis bought this up first thing and then some crafty hedge gang piled on the shorts.

[chillwill] 11/1/2010 16:25

well, been out for most the afternoon (taking battery off my car... recharging it, refitting it... starting it up and then getting stuck in the snow about 5m away from where i started haha).

Didn't expect the mines to be down when I got back! On my xta in the morning I was 55 ish points down, now i'm 20 odd up?

Question is... do I close and take that as a warning or look at the very bearish candlestick formed by being so high then closing negative? Hmm, think I'll let this one run and aim for the gap at 1100.

[omalaha] 11/1/2010 13:36

I did say to beware the buying - lots of traders ignore overbought/sold signals and you can clearly tell by the intraday that instis are going long and the scalpers are following and then shorting at the HOD. I will go back in short but the entry isn't looking obvious.The smarter move is probably intra-day if you can screen watch.

[chillwill] 11/1/2010 11:48

Well... someone said china in the news and everyone bought copper lol. Good day for the miners, although not for me being short on xta, it's a risky one - the traders love it, they'll thrash it up or down nearly as quickly as the ftse (ftse up 30pts, xta up about the same at the moment).

Just need it to turn the other way lol, but being 30pts off its high looks good, would be very bearish if closed long way off its high.

[diku] 09/1/2010 14:16

RSI on Miners have already turned...I think XTA could be heading to 1120p first stop!..surely even those who took up the RI/Placing on XTA last year must be tempted to sell out completely if they are still holding...(No Advice Intended)...

[chillwill] 09/1/2010 00:18

Slipped a short on xta this morning at 1244, it has gone to the top of its trend in a very tight steep upward trend, most likely fall more quickly when it does, targeting 1100, possible less (think there is a gap around 1090 which is a nice target).

EU unemployment 10% now (same as US), maybe weekend press will get hold of that a spread some doom & gloom, or maybe the market will carry on willy nilly.

[goldigler] 08/1/2010 17:29

most miners are over-bought at the moment so shorts should be rewarded.

[goldigler] 08/1/2010 17:27

short at 1028, looking for 980 or possibly 950next week.

[diku] 08/1/2010 14:16

short at 1022p...

[diku] 08/1/2010 13:12

1025p short closed at 1019p..will be looking to short after US stats..

[diku] 07/1/2010 10:22

2nd or 3rd week of Jan is when stocks tend to revisit the prices they were just before Christmas...No guarantees but have noticed that last few years...and most of the rise was on the back of low volume during peak festive season '09...

[chillwill] 07/1/2010 10:02

well set my stop at break even and limit at 960p for now, shall see how it goes, if ftse closes below 5500 and mining index under 23000 i may consider adding to position

[diku] 06/1/2010 17:37

Looking for near 980p short term..

[chillwill] 06/1/2010 15:46

It's ok Omalaha, unless another run on the dollar starts I doubt the miners have much puff left in them. I'm only in small amounts anyway, I usually build into positions but only keep it small when shorting things trending upward.

XTA just hit top of daily and hourly trend around the 1235 mark.

[diku] 06/1/2010 15:44

Commodity casino is disconnected from main street...when the stock goes from 920p to 1000p between Christmas and New year...and it still keeps going up in 2010...with thin volume across the board this looks like a feast for programme trades to manupilate the market to their advantage...first week of the new year tends to be an up week while some of the big fundies are still away until Monday..

[omalaha] 06/1/2010 15:38

Careful, I don't like the buying that comes on on any pull back. Miners really in favour,. This is starting to remind me of that ridiculous oil rally when shorters were sucked in and whipped all the way.

[chillwill] 06/1/2010 15:22

back into overbought territory, short closed at break even and re-opened at 1040.5, looking for 100pts at least

[omalaha] 06/1/2010 14:33

Hhmm...more upward wouldn't surprise me, still within my stop range, don't mind losing some to gain more.

[chillwill] 06/1/2010 12:03

Just coming off overbought levels and looking to come back into the trend?

Short yesterday at 1025.5 and now set my stop at break even but think it might get stopped out quite easily, shall keep my eyes on it. If it breaks below 10 squid i'll add to the short and see how it does.

Mostly keeping my eyes on the ftse hourly chart, looking for a short at top of range a little over 5550 at present

[omalaha] 05/1/2010 15:45

very unusual - i'd say some insti is buying dips - indices have surprised many shorters today (see FTSE thread) but i did say that IG and co wouldn't let them get off lightly all diving in at 5400-5500, its not that easy a game.

"According Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at institutional brokerage
firm BTIG LLC in New York, last week's sentiment data from the American
Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that 68 percent of investors
are bullish on U.S. stocks, which is close to the sell signal threshold of 70
percent.
"Coincidentally, that reading was registered just before New Century went
bust, which we deem to be the inaugural event of the credit crisis. At that
time, the S&P 500 registered a 3.5 percent down day, which was a big move back
then."

[diku] 05/1/2010 15:34

Just look at the spikes up and down intraday on low volume!...

[omalaha] 05/1/2010 15:02

I'll put the house on it........not

[binladin] 05/1/2010 09:09

Check out HAWK.L worth looking at....36P share price now.

The analysts remain bullish. None more than the oil experts at Hanson Westhouse, who reckon the company's net assets are worth 268p a share (current price 47p). Ambrian Research has a 62p a share price target.