Antofagasta Share Discussion Threads

[sir buns up knealing] 29/3/2017 18:41

Hi Damps,

Soi has answered your queries for me.

Brexit: 2 years for a change of mind to happen. It is a long time in politics anything can occur.

Now what frustrates me is that soi started buying ANTO longs today in the top 7s and bottom 8s like a dervish with no apparent indicators to support this. And yet he soon came up trumps. Must have a sonic screwdriver, a light saber or some oracle gadget? Or maybe he is on drugs that actually allow one to perceive the truth in the psychedelic world of the markets?

I note that he said yesterday that ANTO was his most successful play with 1000s of wins in the past 3 years. I still maintain that I put him on to it on the Barc BB, suggesting that he would appreciate its volatility. I'm still waiting for my 2.5% commission.

Could be a long wait, I suspect. Might get some cheap flight to the Canary Isles one day for me and my mates Frank Repo and Thuggie Dougie.

IMHO,

SBK

[soi] 29/3/2017 16:49

Hi

A sad day, seems rather final the UK leaving the EU.
Scant consolation taking many pts from ANTO.

DS

SBK not the only one working both ways trading, yes it does get complicated but there are not any dealing charges with SB trades as I`m sure you know.
I personally feel it is a very effective way of trading, having both long & short positions in the same instrument gives some protection against any sudden swings.

IMO.

Spain sounds nice, I`m already looking forward to Italy in about 3 months time.
If I can find the time, wouldn`t mind visiting Tenerife, a potential winter alternative to Thailand which at times frustrates me.

ATB

soi

[damp seaweed] 29/3/2017 13:47

SBK,
I really don't understand why you hold long and short positions in the same equity for any period.
Does it not get confusing and complicated. And why pay 2 lots of dealing charges.
Life is so much easier if you just play for one side at a time. You can still be fickle and switch on a whim.
I suspect the problem is a reluctance to crystallise a loss ?

DS
Currently enjoying the Spanish sun and wondering if I can claim a right to stay ?. Also wondering if I need a visa to return to the UK.

[jackdawsson] 28/3/2017 23:37

SBK,

So it starts. PM May triggered A50 tonight.

Though some people never expected things to reach this stage, I know May was long-regarded by some with suspicion as a Machiavellian-type who was always a secret Brexiteer. She just didn't want to admit it during the EU Referendum & risk getting on the wrong side of Cameron in case Brexit lost.

In this respect, by now pandering to the Tory right & grassroots support, she probably ensures she'll be PM in 2020. Though a Tory PM in 2020 isn't in any doubt due to the feebleness of the opposition, the Tory leader might have been.

But as you say, there'll be a winners & losers. Most will lose. To the clear winners, we can also add the wealthy elite (Arron Banks & co) who bank-rolled Brexit.

I'll be out most of tomorrow (maybe a blessing), so will catch up later. - All the best!

[sir buns up knealing] 28/3/2017 22:03

Hi Jack,

I liked Kam too. I believe he was involved, in a heroic way, with the Langbar (the largest known fraud scandal in UK financial history), as was I. More on that another time.

A50: tomorrow's winner will be... Vladimir Putin. And he deserves it, master strategist that he is:

Won in Chechnya.

Won in Crimea.

Ukraine pending.

Won in the USA.

I've been musing that the "golden shower" accusation against Trump was not urination by females but a "leak" threat about a rainfall of money Donald got somet
ime, somewhere. It was a convoluted threat.

Won in Syria.

And A50 is a winning hand too. The wedge between the EU states, with the most warlike of them, the UK being taken out.

Clever boy. Mrs May, silly stooge.

IMHO,

Regards,

SBK

[jackdawsson] 28/3/2017 20:03

Hi SBK,

Thanks. Here's hoping those BARC shorts come good for you soon, self-interest aside. ;o) I have 2 BARC shorts, one well underwater, but not so heavily exposed as to be fazed. However, if I saw closer to 210, I may shut both for near B/E. Mostly to spring clean my SB account & gradually work towards a clean slate there. Reasons: so much up in the air with Brexit & the loon in the Whitehouse, extreme volatility liable to remain for ages yet.

Soi's done well again & due credit to him, but as we appreciate, one also needs substantial resources to keep adding positions to more volatile stocks.

You'll remember Kam from iii. He opened a leveraged BARC long at circa 240+. He added at least 11 more BARC longs. Lowest entry I recall was circa 200. BARC collapsed to 121+ lows & dear Kam not heard from since.

I liked Kam. It was genuinely sad that he got a financial hammering, as many others did. But I was also mindful of one of his last comments about the heavy price of breaking his own rules by adding more positions than he normally would.

I was lucky as I kept averaging down by buying real shares & had up to 6 tranches at one time. Sold the last one far too early, but did well overall. But all history now & the leveraged side continues to pose far greater challenges.

I remain 100% in cash with real shares since selling my last VOD & BT shares earlier this month. No rush there & content to sit on sidelines until well into summer.

Re A50: I share your take on it. Frankly, I feel very disheartened about tomorrow. Not least because of all the lies around Brexit. But also, all the gloating from petty-minded nationalists who continue demanding a "hard Brexit", only underscores how people of limited objectivity have been so easily led by populist right-wing media.

Even though I firmly believe we'll have another EU Referendum with a very different outcome in my lifetime, so within 25 years, I still feel we could be facing at least a wasted decade or more of relative chaos. The very thought of that is quite depressing. - Regards.

[sir buns up knealing] 28/3/2017 18:44

Hi Jack.

Glad that you are doing well with UKX. Short is deffo the way to go with that.

My main dealing right now is Barc SBs: a mix of shorts and longs heavily weighted to the short side . I add shorts on every rise of a few points and sell on falls. Been doing this with success for a long time. But wished I'd kept some shorts which I closed in the high 230s. This is really the sort of thing soi does with ANTO. But Barc is a whole lot more predictable, less volatile and nowhere near as scary.

I see that soi has climbed out of the grave on ANTO yet again. The true answer to Apostrophe's question was that he only does all this to annoy us.

Anyway at close of racing today in the Barc COMP I am only 2 wheel lengths behind Ashram Jonny.

Apart from that good news, I am dreading tomorrow and the A50 thing. I cannot believe that my fellow countrymen have been so stupid. A tragic day.

IMHO,

Regards,

SBK

[jackdawsson] 28/3/2017 15:48

SBK,

Appreciate your caution about adding here on top of your existing ANTO positions. Easy to end up with too many trades hedging others, but if we see a sharp move to one side & a break-out from a previous trading range, it can soon get messy with positions underwater over L/T.

But once you've booked more gains, there'll always be fresh opportunities later. If there's one sure thing with this share, it's that extreme volatility makes it excellent for trading.

I've had a decent 24 hours with UKX shorts. Without being over-confident, I feel fairly sanguine about seeing more gains there sooner than later. Some Brexit blues will certainly help.

But my main goal remains to get out of the mess here & release margin for trading less unpredictable equities.

Re Soi: one thing I learned from him today on iii's BARC BB: if ever I'm in Thailand & someone tries to sell me a lottery ticket for over 80 baht, then they've marked me down as another foreign prize sucker! :o) Such info may prove useful. - Regards.

[sir buns up knealing] 28/3/2017 13:23

Hi Jack,

I keep being tempted to go long on ANTO today. But too nervous. And I really don't want to encourage the share price up right now. I'm hoping that soi will keep adding to his underwater massive long string so that eventually he won't be able to afford his landline and internet bill.

I'm also advertising in "The Pattya Times" for local handyman to fix a sign to soi's front gate, reading: "National Lottery tickets sold here. Only 400 baht each".

IMHO,

SBK

[jackdawsson] 27/3/2017 19:27

Hi SBK,

Thanks. Can't go against such open-mindedness. ANTO production report on 26th April; ex-divi date, the 27th.



As we know, 4 weeks-plus is often a long time in markets, especially considering the recent volatility of copper & macro-factors in general. Add Brexit & the Trump factor into the mix & it's akin to shooting in the dark. Without a scattergun, I'll continue to avoid risking further damage here.

Re Soi: I guess he figured that whatever some folk may think of you, no-one who knows you from iii would ever seriously consider you an idiot. A few might have other choice descriptions, but that's how things go for those who are occasionally misunderstood. ;o) - Regards. Catch up later.

[sir buns up knealing] 27/3/2017 18:39

Jack,

I had a little foray at 790.3 but chickened out with a couple of points. My problem is that I have 2 longs in the 830s - the last one added with perfect ill-luck on Friday. Plus one at 842. And my 3 shorts are on upside down. So I'm in stasis right now. My plan was to always stay net short while the strike was on expecting a fall at its conclusion. But its worse than that because the strike is not really over. Maybe 18 months of bad feeling to come first. This dispute may spill over into other Chilean mining companies...

Nevertheless, I actually expect the ANTO share price to go north and south all over the place in range which includes back up to 850. Results next month for one thing.


It was good of soi to leap to the defence of our host from this morning's surprise attack. I did note that he omitted to defend me against the charge of being an idiot. I suppose that was because such a notion regarding my good personage was not worth responding to, no doubt.

IMHO,

SBK

[jackdawsson] 27/3/2017 15:29

SBK,

Note, as well as 830 gap, also one at circa 748 from 10th March. Next day open was 767.

Things up in the air with dollar strength & Trump-effect fading. Also, Escondida's strike over. All that coming together. Extra caution seems wise. - Regards.

[sir buns up knealing] 27/3/2017 12:16

Eadwig,

It is actually 30 nations to negotiate with: there are also Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland!

Beyond the obvious economic and political mess which is looming I am actually more concerned about those of us remainers who want to keep our EU citizenship for cultural reasons. It is madness to lose our 44 year old European rights and freedoms and allow ourselves to be led by the likes of Farage and other small-minded xenophobes. I am particularly angry about the nastiness which has been encouraged to surface against eastern Europeans by such rags as The Daily Express and also the Government's supine reverence for the Trump Administration.

I could go on. And probably will.

Meantime, I am dithering about ANTO. There is now the gap at 830 to fill. But why should it apart from a retrace from a 23 point drop being a routine occurrence intraday? Perhaps the price of copper will recover a bit. Maybe investors' money will move into safe $ earning, foreign - facing stocks with the UK heading into huge uncertainty this week. Then there is soi with his improbable string of longs this morning tempting one to follow him either to 10 point gains or off a cliff. Unsure which at the moment...

IMHO,

SBK

[jackdawsson] 27/3/2017 11:51

SBK,

Good to see your fan club continuing to grow here, too. ;o)

Decent day here having closed one of my 4 UKX shorts for 87+ pts (as on iii), minus a few pts for ex-divis & costs. Closer to 7100 will see the rest of that mess sorted. Then more focus on equities. - ANTO likely to take much longer.

Eadwig,

Probably not far off re timetable for Brexit talks. Little meaningful likely to happen until after Germany's elections in autumn. So 2018 or very late 2017 seems realistic.

Many think that's nowhere near enough time to get a strong comprehensive deal for UK, especially with hard Brexit ideologues like Fox & Davis at the helm. Hard to disagree whilst saner Tory voices like Ken Clarke & Heseltine are being totally ignored.

Regards to both.

[eadwig] 27/3/2017 11:16

Re: Brexit.

Europe is waiting to see the form the triggering of article 50 takes. I.e. the proposed way ahead that comes along with it ...

I wonder if they've told our government that is what is expected.

The balls in our court and we're expected to return it with a long list of proposals as to the way ahead, all of which have to be digested and a formal response to each decided upon, between 27 nations and I forget how many total jurisdictions.

I can certainly see why some commentators are talking about 2018 before actual sit down talks start.

Before we know where we are they'll be breaking for summer recess for 3 months, just like they did after the Brexit vote. Any key politician to this process who goes on holiday this year should be shot for treason.

Along with English cricketers on Winter tours that go home for paternity leave!

[soi] 27/3/2017 11:00

michaei or whatever successfully filtered.

No issue with Chinese Investor and he is the topic starter and as such is entitled to his views.

Debate the views, don`t attack the poster.

Copper down near 1.5 % today.

[sir buns up knealing] 27/3/2017 09:17

Well its goodbye to him then. Guess he must be losing money?

soi,

Completely agree with your political outlook. The UK Government is obviously going to be mired in time and money wasting negotiating struggles for pretty much ever. None of the real issues that concern ordinary people will be addressed. As they will discover. But of course any negative outcomes will be blamed on them "foreigners". I could write the future headlines of the rabid right wing press right now.

Regarding the COMP: my opinion of such behaviour would not get through the ADVFN auto Censor.

IMHO,

Qualified regards,

SBK

[soi] 26/3/2017 15:18

My preferred entry was actually 227.35 with 227.4 and 227.5 as alternatives.
Couldn`t enter any of those, left it a tad late.

A lot will depend on the market`s reaction Wednesday when the UK enters the abyss.
A grim day to come for the UK, particularly when we have a weak government.
Just when we have need for a strong one.


The pathetic lot we now have will be tied up in knots trying to negotiate, for years.
Ignoring what could possibly be done to improve the UK economy and ordinary people`s lives.

The politicians will still get their salaries and expenses though.

soi

[sir buns up knealing] 26/3/2017 11:18

Hi Jack,

227.50. Pretty please, with invisible ink. Or you might as well put soi down for 227.75 I suppose while you are at it!

The praise that I heaped on Eadwig above didn't work. I thought it might have caused him to have a seizure but alas he has still got his entry in.

IMHO,

SBK

P.S. I watched a bit of "Bangkok Dangerous" last night. It put me in mind of soi being a western hit man in Thailand and this scene:

The paymaster behind the assassination:

"Mr soi, I paid you to take this guy out completely but you only shot one of his toes off and one of his fingers!"

Soi: "Yeah, well I was only after 10 points".

[jackdawsson] 25/3/2017 22:00

Hi Eadwig,

Generally agree. Though another pertinent factor is the increase in perennial non-voters, including many younger citizens, who feel totally disconnected from the political process. Perhaps we need a form of PR to better incentivise those people.

Oil dropping helps & perhaps some metals to follow soon if markets start to doubt Trump's ability to deliver his promised massive infrastructure spending plans, as well as huge tax-cuts. Congress's DNA not easily persuasive to taking on more huge debt, especially to appease a populist POTUS who it appears hasn't really thought through even the basic obstacles to fulfilling his grand promises.

That huge fence along Mexico's border that he thinks he can get Mexico to pay the full cost of, seems another clanger that'll come to little.

Re UKX reversing to well under 7000: maybe not disastrous, though if it happened when Sterling was still fairly weak, it'd suggest that the macro-picture for UK was perhaps grimmer than many expected. Then irrational sentiment can do the rest. In perspective, on the UKX BB, I'm reading posts from some long holders about how they see FTSE at 8000 within months.

But for now, other than I think we'll see lower soon, indices remain a hard call as to the next bigger moves in either direction. Really, like ANTO, it feels more like gambling sometimes as it doesn't take much to sharply propel indices in either direction & surprise bad or good news can hit anytime, from anywhere.

Hence I'm sticking to targets. Then I take my gains & I stay away. - Regards.

[eadwig] 25/3/2017 18:59

JD,

no problem ensuring safeguards for anyone who served in the armed forces voluntarily, or in conflict areas in the merchant navy. But that generation has almost gone in terms of the huge numbers during WWII.

The kicker is, just as the grey vote is forecast to be overtaken demographically by the millennials is right around the time I am due to retire. It may not happen with further medical advances ... if we can afford them, that is.

As for shorts, I'm about break-even around 7200ish. I don't think well under 7000 would be regarded as disastrous, especially if it happens over a few weeks. It would only take the index back to December. 10 correction from the high would only take it to about 6700 - we had a 20% drop over 6 months between late summer 2015 and Feb 2016.

US rig count up 21 on Friday. If oil keeps dropping we might see that kind of drop above, which followed the oil price pretty much.

It would be a boon for the Uk economy if it did in terms of keeping inflation under control. I doubt the oil industry will get itself into quite the same problems so quickly again though.

[jackdawsson] 25/3/2017 16:53

Hi Eadwig,

Glad to echo SBK's comment. Much agree with most points made. A previously leaked paper stated that costs to our Treasury of leaving EU could run up to £66BN EVERY year, for many years. Even it's less than that, the overall costs will surely be damaging.

None of this, not to mention the proven outright pro-Brexit lies, was really argued against with sufficient coherence or cogency during the referendum campaign. For that, spineless Cameron, arguably the worst British PM for decades, is mostly to blame.

Rather than ducking a one-to-one live debate with Farage, he should have insisted on having a few of them & destroyed that charlatan accordingly by exposing the lies. As it was, Farage steered the agenda.

Re pensioners: as they say, win the so-called "grey vote" in UK & you win the General Election. No surprise that many more passionate pro-Brexiteers waving flags were retired folk, their dentures gleaming in the June sunlight.

If Brexit leads to a worse than anticipated economic downturn, I agree, that triple-lock pension safeguard should be the first thing to go. Why should our younger generations again endure the greatest economic pain?

Some cite pensioners' sacrifices during 2nd world war. Indeed, there are those elderly citizens to whom we are grateful. But even if one was aged 18 in 1945, one would be at least aged 89 or 90 today. Many pensioners are far younger than that.

Agree that the FTSE may show some resilience for some while yet as regards a truly disastrous correction, ie. to well under 7000, though I think both UK & US indices will go much lower soon. But well under 7000 was never my target when I opened my first short. I intend closing all my UKX shorts on revisiting close to circa 7100, maybe higher. Then I'd focus on equities again as I think we'll find some excellent bargains over coming months. - Regards.