Antofagasta Share Discussion Threads

[sir buns up knealing] 25/3/2017 09:52

Eadwig,

That was an excellent read.

Thanks.

IMHO,

SBK

[eadwig] 25/3/2017 05:11

JD & SBK,

"Agree re Brexit. By the time the EU convenes on 29/04 & then agrees a collective response, we could well be headed into June."

I heard that real negotiations, actually sitting down and officially starting to discuss issues, are unlikely to start in 2017. Which comes as no surprise to me.

I heard a politician on the radio the other day saying that 'Its just beginning to dawn on some people that each business sector requires its own representative and many of those have sub-sectors which require the same. Otherwise, anyone not represented is very likely to have advantages negotiated away.

You could probably find virtually the same sentence written by me on the ii BP board prior to the vote. How can our politicians really be so thick?

The WTO rules aren't such a big deal compared to the additional paperwork and hold-ups at the borders. E.g. Some industries currently have components imported and exported several times between different factories in the EU for various specialised work. They simply wont be able to compete due to extended lead times because of border hold ups. The easiest thing for, say, a German auto parts manufacturer will be to simply cut out any border controls.

Something I had not realised is that, in effect, some services do exactly the same things, but will no have to have data protection agreements with every single country involved. Previously, one EU agreement covered all countries, in or out of the EU, those outside the EU just had to conform with the EU regulations. That could take years to get in place, or very much more money to negotiate several agreements in parallel.

The details of the budget were very telling. Where it had projections maximum 5 years in advance, that included costs for the department of breit - in other words, Hammond and the treasury are under no illusions that the Brexit department will still be working at the same rate in 5 year's time as they will be in 2017/18.

Why none of this was absolutely forefront in the 'debate' pre-vote, I don't know. Probably because most people don't have a long enough attention span to focus on it. Brexiteer politicians dismissed such concerns when they weren't brought up as 'scare mongering', 'project fear' and 'other countries manage just fine', ignoring the fact other countries have evolved their own procedures over decades and have negotiators who have spent whole careers doing such things.

I think it will only gradually sink in over months after article 50 has been triggered, maybe only after exit has happened, and the only way I can really see it filtering into the national consciousness is through continual and incremental lay-offs of workers with causes for same cited as a result of no longer being able to compete due to X and Y resulting from Brexit.

It'll be way too late by then. Except, those politicians who helped bring about the situation, including Cameron, should be held accountable in some way. That's just a fantasy on my part though.

I note another 2 years is already to be added to pension ages, and there is even now serious talk of doing away with retirement age completely. No one has mentioned Brexit specifically, but they have referred to 'changed circumstances looking forward'. Of course, the one section of the public better off are pensioners, whose triple lock means an RPI linked benefit rise. RPI is currently 3.5% and rising fast. ONE person who worked on the committee that has come up with the pension recommendations has talked about removing the triple lock as it is patently no longer fair. I'd like to see a hefty cut in state pension linked directly to Brexit and a politician with the balls to say 'that's what you voted for, here it is'.

Instead, we still have several years of pension rate rises and real cuts to every other service until at least 2020, as well as stealth taxes which don't fall under rises to income tax, VAT or N.I. now the government knows it can't discard its own manifesto.

With the health service ring fenced so that cuts only come in the form of 'rises' in spending under the rate of inflation, and promises to reduce corporation tax to attract business investment (like other countries wont compete by doing the same thing), we're going to see much bigger cuts to defence spending, more pay freezes in the public sector and probably a second decade of falling living standards to follow the last decade which resulted in the rise of 'populism', or stupidity as I like to call it.

The Uk is on the fast track to becoming a second class nation. Our '5th biggest economy in the world' has already been overtaken by Russia, Brazil and Indonesia by some measurements. Canada, France, Italy and S. Korea will likely go past us too and probably others. Then where will the argument be about the 5th biggest economy being able to stand alone?

And none of it likely to happen quickly enough to affect the FTSE 100 and its international companies in any great way.

A man could get depressed if he dwelt on it for too long.

Eadwig, off to bed. Has to be up in an hour. Been researching rare earth elements all night.

[jackdawsson] 24/3/2017 22:10

Hi SBK,

Despite my dismal showing in Comp this season, compensations abound. Not least, as you've noted, enjoying proceedings in Congress & Trump, supposed master of the business deal, increasingly being exposed as a straw man president & useless at making any deals. I imagine much more of the same lies ahead.

Can't deny I'm also more than a little relieved that indices have lost momentum past few days & things on the macro-front look poised for further falls soon. Anyone going long too heavily during recent weeks probably deserves all they've got coming. Markets have been unusually irrational & we seem due further corrections.

Agree re Brexit. By the time the EU convenes on 29/04 & then agrees a collective response, we could well be headed into June. Even a full 2 years was never going to be long enough, so it'll take huge compromises to avoid being stuck with costly WTO rules.

By the by, on iii, Rhino notes that Escondida's copper strike ended today. Too early to know what effect (if any) on Cu prices, but Monday could be interesting, as will be the rest of next week. - Regards.

[sir buns up knealing] 24/3/2017 21:37

Hi Jack,

Glad you picked up a couple of points in the COMP. I'll have more to say on that tomorrow.

The good news is that Trump has fallen at the hurdles on the Obama Care issue. His Moslem ban is in the bin already, second time around. Then we have the A50 fiasco on our doorsteps. The markets are also at ludicrously high levels.

Therefore, why not be short on most stuff right now? Like me. Its simple, simply simple, simples.

IMHO.

SBK

[jackdawsson] 24/3/2017 12:48

Hi Eadwig,

Thanks & you're welcome. No doubt I speak for many in my appreciation. Good research alone is time-consuming, even if experiences helps one to better identify the gist. That's without actively trading as well. Doing both isn't easy for any individual. Hence, great value of shared info on BBs.

It's also easy to become discouraged when things go against & rewards delayed by far longer than anticipated. Many people need a break. We've all been there.

I did exactly 62 small SB trades on Wednesday alone. A HUGE number for me, but of no value to others as no time to post anything. All scalping indices both directions. Last one just before 9 pm. I couldn't do that most days, even if I wanted to. But I emphasise, these were small lower-risk trades. I hold much bigger SB positions underwater.

To get maximum rewards from markets, it really needs a full-time approach. For eg. as Soi adopts. But focusing more so on basic TA actually saves time from a day-trading perspective. Not least as markets can be sentiment-driven & irrational, whilst fundamental news is more important for mid-to-long term traders & investors.

It's unfortunate for longer-term holders of NXT or any other retail stocks with Brexit ahead, et al, & yet to fully play out. That's one of a few sectors that really can't avoid greater challenges for the foreseeable future. I'm sure we'll see more focus on cost-cutting & moving more business online where possible. I agree, that'll be key to any strong recovery of many retailers future profits. Sadly, that'll also entail job-losses elsewhere.

My trading approach just days before Brexit trigger remains as before: not that there haven't been temptations to buy again, but I'm 100% in cash with real shares. Key thing: I need to exit bigger SB positions sooner than later, even if I bolster my account via small-stake scalping. My bigger issues can't be delayed indefinitely.

I probably won't buy anything more until after EU convene on 29th April, as they try to agree a collective response to PM May's A50 trigger on 29th March. Presumably, meaningful talks won't start until at least well after April. Maybe even as late as June has been mentioned by EU sources.

Considering that even 2 full years after A50 triggered is seen by many as nowhere near enough time, it's hard to be very optimistic. No trade deal leaves reliant on more expensive WTO rules & that'll be another clear negative for much of UK PLC. Interesting times ahead & no doubt some good trading opportunities.

Ah, the Comp: for first time in its history, I sit back & enjoy proceedings with total neutrality. Never been in the running this time & I'm sure that my 2 BARC shorts (one well underwater) has more to do with that failure than even irrational, Trump-driven markets. ;o) Regards.

[jackdawsson] 24/3/2017 08:20

Hi Eadwig,

Thanks & credit to you for noticing any anomalies on said presentation. I'm surprised iii didn't get back to you, even if from mere oversight, but I still prefer iii to here for other reasons, including layout & the posters I know well. Once SBK re-registers with iii, my visits here will again diminish. :o)

By the by, it's not gone unnoticed by me & others on iii that you've also done excellent, in-depth research on a fair number of sectors & equities. That input always appreciated. Some of that presumably would otherwise escape most casual traders attentions.

Same reasons here for forgoing Level 2.

I recall when I traded via eTrade that it was very useful seeing live trade orders come through on my screen, especially bigger buys & sells. However, I'd need to guarantee I could be trading full-time again without increasing obligations away from my desk to justify it. That's far from the case right now & for the foreseeable future. - Regards & GL. Catch you on iii later.

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 23:43

PS,

I was in the local convenience store yesterday, and you can buy a pay as you go sim card, with new number, for a quid here, and no registration process at the checkout as far as I can tell, and you even get some internet data time for that too.

I like those off the shelf pay-as-you-go sims. you can check through all the available numbers and pick one you can actually remember when someone asks you for your mobile number.

Eadwig

[jackdawsson] 23/3/2017 21:41

Hi Eadwig,

AFAIK, posters highlighted in blue are paying subscribers with access to L2 & ADVFN's other services. Posters in black are, presumably, a bunch of tight-fisted skinflints who'll make do with what whatever they can get for free.

A bit harsh, but probably not far off the truth for someone like JD. ;o) Though in truth, I don't trade anywhere near enough to justify regular fees for L2, though I've used it previously when with eTrade. - Regards.

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 20:16

bionicdog, "If you are not blue , it will block it"

Good tip, I'll remember that. I'll just think about my FTSE 100 shorts and I'll be so blue I'll be able to paste images as well as include links ... which is what I tried first. I'm feeling completely unvalidated.

How did you get blue?

[sir buns up knealing] 23/3/2017 19:32

Well that was amusing! Eadwig is Polish Irish you know. And was brought up in Yorkshire where they are "strong int arm and thick int 'ed". He used to work in computers in the days when they were steam- powered or driven by water mills.

IMHO,

SBK

Like to see ANTO down to <816 tomorrow and Barc up to 229 and no more. TIA.

[bionicdog] 23/3/2017 18:20

Seriously , it depends where the link is from. If you are not blue , it will block it from many other sources. You can get round it by changing one of the "t"s to a capital. Don't tell them I told you though.

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 18:17

no idea, didn't have trouble posting links previously. Ta!

Just an interest thing - the software doesn't have a good track record.

[bionicdog] 23/3/2017 18:07

Whatever's wrong with you?

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 18:06

I give up.

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 18:04

ffs!

hxxp://site.recognia.com/recognia_news/serve.shtml?page=event&eid=UKvwmeAAQw4wANgABAACAAAD6CQg&amp;lang=en

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 18:03

hxxps://site.recognia.com/recognia_news/serve.shtml?page=event&eid=UKvwmeAAQw4wANgABAACAAAD6CQg&amp;lang=en

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 18:01

Antofagasta PLC forms bearish "Head and Shoulders Top" chart pattern
Mar 07, 2017

Recognia has detected a "Head and Shoulders Top" chart pattern formed on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO:LSE). This bearish signal indicates that the stock price may fall from the close of 781.00 to the range of 666.00 - 687.00. The pattern formed over 31 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Tells Me: The price seems to have reached the end of a period of "distribution" at the top of a major uptrend; the break down through support signals a reversal to a new downtrend. The Head and Shoulders Top is created by three successive rallies in the price following a significant uptrend. The highest high (head) is in the middle, flanked by two lower highs (shoulders) at roughly the same level. Volume is highest as the price makes the first two rallies, then diminishes through the right shoulder. Finally volume surges as the price closes below the neckline (drawn between the two lows) to confirm the reversal.

This bearish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Recognia proprietary pattern recognition technology.

hxxps://api.recognia.com/api/securitychart?iid=137329208&;eid=UKvwmeAAQw4wANgABAACAAAD6CQg&wid=575&skn=blue&amp;ucl=T&lcl=T&amp;iem=T&iel=I&amp;cst=B&cht=price:tall,volume:short&zom=tighttrend&amp;tid=93w4PN6LrdcJc589mi%2Bu2WE9Pyn09PnnpPd0v0MMhGkfh0BV9lZwv0G0x3v8hcdKc4LTN3RFY%2Boj93cnSRT0LDRxSKqtxapdr%2B2qUHZ8DCxTmC5I%2FysAVTfAVsLnvRZ3WL0NIJCcoI2KPEdF%2FR1SzA%3D%3D&lang=en&mnt=

[sir buns up knealing] 23/3/2017 10:33

I too sense an end to the Escondida strike from the newsflow.

One would then expect the price of copper to slip given revived production hitting the market in the foreseeable.

But it may be that if BLT has struck a deal advantageous to the company this will rub off on other Chilean miners. Then with their usual perversity Cu and ANTO will rise.

The likelihood of the above happening is bolstered by my short positions. Sigh.

IMHO,

SBK

[doug stamper] 22/3/2017 16:34

Closed small loss after good profit?? ??

Clearly. I'm misunderstanding the situation. Ex div is way away.

It's a case of "I'll be back". But for now it's "get to the chopper"

[doug stamper] 22/3/2017 13:44

FFS. Short underwater. Expecting LME to shake the hell outta copper. Congress jitters. Why up?
Escondida back to work tomorrow in all likelihood.
???

[jackdawsson] 21/3/2017 17:14

SBK,

Naturally with enough short positions here (& UKX) & markets selling off, I've had a half-decent day. Just a sense of relief, no more. US also looking a bit jittery past few days, on top of today's sharp drop so far.

But nothing taken for granted until the real proper fear enters markets over Brexit & Trump's bluster coming to little, et al, that's if he's not impeached sooner than later.

Even if it takes a few weeks for markets to turn decisively, so be it. But market cycles tend to repeat & this latest bull run seems based at least partly on pure BS. - Regards & GL.

[doug stamper] 21/3/2017 16:25

Anto will take us down to chinatown if we're not bloody careful. We're awash with the cursed red stuff!

This could be the start of my 720 forecast. Everything is falling into place. Gap down tomorrow?

imho pdyor