Hi Gopher,
Hopefully, the CFO has undercooked the 25 forecast and they can start to beat and enter an earnings upgrade cycle.
Got the ingredients, whether they've got the momentum is an open question. |
Thanks SimonThis is a very interesting acquisition and as I have said in the past the Company remains somewhat under the radar with its potential not baked into share price.Looking forward to Jenny Winters next update on investors meet platform, of course execution is everything. |
 Panmure - 23/1/25:
Randlab sells a range of equine generic pharmaceuticals as well as some over-the-counter (OTC) products, primarily in Australia but also in New Zealand, Japan and the UAE.
It serves all equine markets (recreational, sports, farm) but is primarily focused on the sports market, covering racehorses and polo ponies. Randlab has four sales reps in Australia, one in New Zealand and a sales office in the UAE and is well known in the sports equine market. Products are primarily shipped to customers via a range of wholesalers, although there is some direct business. The portfolio consists of 58 brands, of which 47 are veterinary pharmaceutical brands owed by Randlab. The balance are third-party pharmaceuticals and OTC brands, but these only accounted for 5% of revenue in the year to June 2024, with 95% of revenue coming from owned brands. This means that Randlab shouldn’t face any headwinds from brand owners shifting priorities.
Given that Animalcare doesn’t have a presence in Australia, integration will be relatively straightforward. The Randlab founder, Angelis Vasili, will be stepping down post-acquisition and his role will be taken over by Bruce Bell, who has been with Randlab since 2020 and who has a broad-based background in animal health. In addition, Brad Saunders will be joining as Finance & Operations Director for ANZ. There is always some risk when a founder steps down, but we take comfort from the fact that the new General Manager has been in place for a while. Angelis will also be retained on a consulting contract and he and the other shareholders have all signed five-year non-competes, which provides an additional level of protection.
The equine market is the fastest-growing veterinary pharmaceutical market, travelling at an 8% CAGR and growth in Asia Pac is even higher. Post the acquisition, Animalcare will generate around 23% of revenue from equine and 14% from Asia Pac. Randlab should be able to boost revenue growth through product launches, with two approaching launches, while there are also opportunities to register Randlab’s products in Europe and vice versa. Lastly, Randlab gives Animalcare a beachhead in Asia Pac from which to expand into companion animals and, with a number of potential deals in the pipeline, we may get news on this front sooner rather than later.
Our forecasts for Randlab are cautious, assuming revenue growth of 5%, below market growth and a steady EBITDA margin. We’ve assumed that the change of ownership slows growth in the short term and have not taken into account any of the potential revenue opportunities or future product launches. Our model suggests that the acquisition is 20% accretive in FY25E and 21% accretive in FY26E. We expect cash generation to remain strong, and not only does Animalcare still have around £20m of acquisitions / licensing deal firepower, but the balance sheet should be largely de-geared by FY27E. In short, the financials are compelling. |
I don't have proof but am of the opinion the Equine side is fairly recession proof looking at the type of people owning and taking care of and spending on horses in the developed world and Mid-East.
If so, the Randlab acquisition may have also helped de-risk Animalcare exposure to the wider economic winds. |
Ahead of 85-90%.
Beautiful. |
Excellent.
"There was continued improvement in cash generation through the year with cash conversion at a rate well above that of the prior year and ahead of prior guidance of 85-90%." |
Panmure - 23/1/25:
2025
-EPS: 14.1p
2026
-EPS: 16p
Valuation remains attractive – While the share price reaction to the acquisition has been relatively muted, we think it has moved the valuation on from one based on the potential from acquisitions, to one based on reality. We remain of the view that Animalcare’s growth trajectory warrants a premium rating, and we value the shares at 330p based on 13x FY25E EV / EBITDA. This is supported by our DCF and sum of the parts valuations. The recent trading update was encouraging, with the numbers in line with expectations. In terms of risk, while acquisitions are never riskfree, we take comfort that the management team has learnt from the Ecuphar experience and structured the deal in such a way that Randlab will still benefit from the founder’s input, particularly around new product development. |
TU due usually by end of January. |
Yes, will relook at 260 and 359.
Yes, could fly, in no rush. Sensible management building for the long term.
Was surprised the price they achieved for the tagging side of the business, was an excellent move.
A bit overweight ANCR but see no reason to trim it, one to ride to see what happens.
It also has something the likes of Zoetis need, decent growth potential with margins to be proud of along with increased geographic spread after recent acquisition. ZTS are OK geographically but a bit stale. Held them a few years back, Decent run 2018 for 3 years. They are also very active in Equine but ANCR would currently be noise to them as an acquisition. That may change in a few years, at a much higher price. |
p1nk,
Your target price of 359p looks doable in 25 and 400p+ in 26.
The unpredictable factor remains the equine nanobody news. Should the updates be positive, the stock could potentially double. Chris Mills anticipates an eventual five-fold increase in value if the nanobody's effectiveness is confirmed. |
EI,
ANCR now has the rights to sell Plaqtiv throughout Europe all channels, Amazon and the likes of Viovet should see some good growth. 36%+ in H1, and it sounds like they are going to put marketing spend behind it.
I see Scott Galloway has Shein down as the IPO of the year - 7.15 minute mark:
Raspberry Pi has rocked hard since flotation. |
Thanks Simon, it was a very nasty shock, however more than 10 years ago now.
The vet initially tried sedation but the issue was too extensive for that too be viable. |
It looks like a great product that will hopefully prevent many premature deaths. I'm sorry to hear of your loss! Will you get some for the cats you have now? |
Thanks.
I lost a beautiful cat sometime ago to a stoke, while recovering from a GA which the vet administered to deep clean his teeth. An issue that arose because of plaque causing gum problems. |
EI,
Latest data is in the fundraise RNS - 3/12/24: |
Do the BOD hold in quantity?, any recent significant BOD transactions.. Thanks |
Some good reviews for Plaqtiv on Amazon:
Amazing Water Liquid
Unbelievable. Cat was likely to have teeth removed due to plaque and build up. 3 months after using liquid, not only drinking more and crunching more but at vet follow up they were amazed at this product. Have shared name of brand with many pet friends. Thank you. |
Now Randlab has closed, maybe a broker note in the coming days? |
c3,
Cheers! |
post 91 above should read concizumab approved 21/12/24 |
A good idea to pick an appropriately sized market and look to dominate first.
Afterwards branch out from a solid core foundation. |
Chat GPT: are there any in-market VHH antibody products for health problems?
Yes, there are VHH antibody products (nanobodies) that have been developed and approved for use in healthcare. These products leverage the unique properties of nanobodies, such as their small size, stability, and ease of engineering, to address various health issues. Here are a few examples of nanobody-based therapeutics that are on the market:
- Caplacizumab (Cablivi): This is the first nanobody-based therapeutic approved for clinical use. Caplacizumab is used for the treatment of acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (aTTP), a rare blood clotting disorder. It works by targeting von Willebrand factor, a protein involved in blood clotting, thereby helping to reduce the formation of unwanted blood clots.
- Concizumab: Although not yet approved, Concizumab is a promising nanobody in late-stage clinical trials. It is designed to treat hemophilia A and B by targeting tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI), which is involved in the regulation of blood coagulation.
- Brolucizumab (Beovu): While technically not a nanobody but a single-chain antibody fragment, Brolucizumab shares some similarities with nanobodies regarding its small size and targeted approach. It is used for the treatment of neovascular (wet) age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and works by inhibiting vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), which is responsible for the formation of new blood vessels in the retina leading to vision loss.
The development of nanobody-based drugs continues to be a dynamic area of research, with many potential applications in treating a variety of diseases, including cancer, inflammatory diseases, and infectious diseases. The unique properties of nanobodies make them particularly suitable for targeting difficult-to-reach antigens and for applications where traditional antibodies might not be effective.
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Caplacizumab, marketed under the brand name Cablivi, was first approved in Europe in August 2018 for the treatment of adults experiencing an episode of acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (aTTP). Following its approval in Europe, it was also approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in February 2019 for the same indication. This approval marked it as the first nanobody-based therapeutic available for clinical use, providing a significant advancement in the treatment of this rare and life-threatening disorder. |
Monoclonal vs VHH antibodies:
Chat GPT
Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and VHH antibodies (also known as nanobodies) are both types of antibodies used in research, diagnostics, and therapeutic applications, but they have distinct structural characteristics and properties.
Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs)
Monoclonal antibodies are derived from a single clone of B cells and are therefore identical in structure. They are large molecules, typically composed of two heavy and two light chains, and have a molecular weight of about 150 kDa. Monoclonal antibodies can bind to specific epitopes on antigens, making them highly specific in their action. They are widely used in the treatment of various diseases, including cancers, autoimmune disorders, and infectious diseases. The production of monoclonal antibodies typically involves the use of mammalian cell cultures, which can be complex and costly.
VHH Antibodies (Nanobodies)
VHH antibodies, or nanobodies, are a type of single-domain antibody derived from the heavy-chain antibodies found in camelids (e.g., camels, llamas). Unlike conventional antibodies, nanobodies consist only of the heavy-chain variable domain, making them much smaller (about 12-15 kDa) than conventional antibodies. This smaller size allows nanobodies to access epitopes that are typically inaccessible to larger antibodies. Additionally, nanobodies are more stable, easier to engineer, and can be produced cost-effectively in microbial systems (e.g., E. coli, yeast).
Comparing Therapeutic Applications
Both monoclonal antibodies and nanobodies have their advantages and limitations as therapeutics:
- Efficacy and Specificity: Both mAbs and nanobodies offer high specificity towards their target antigens. However, their effectiveness can vary depending on the nature of the disease and the target.
- Penetration and Distribution: Due to their smaller size, nanobodies can penetrate tissues more effectively and reach dense tissues or intracellular targets that may be less accessible to monoclonal antibodies.
- Stability and Production: Nanobodies are generally more stable and can be produced more cost-effectively than monoclonal antibodies. They are also less likely to elicit immune responses.
- Modifications and Multivalency: While monoclonal antibodies are used extensively in their traditional form, nanobodies can be easily modified to create multivalent or multispecific constructs, potentially enhancing their therapeutic effects.
Which is Better?
The choice between monoclonal antibodies and nanobodies as a therapeutic agent depends on the specific application and the desired properties of the antibody. Nanobodies might be more suitable for targeting hard-to-reach antigens or for applications requiring high tissue penetration or stability. Monoclonal antibodies, on the other hand, have a well-established track record and are preferred in cases where full-sized antibodies are proven to be effective, such as in immune system modulation or targeting of cell surface antigens.
In conclusion, both monoclonal antibodies and VHH nanobodies have their unique strengths, and the choice of which is better depends on the therapeutic requirements and the specific context of their use. |
IMC - 15/4/24:
Jenny Winter
Orthos, which is the VHH antibody-based agreement, is a Dutch company we partnered with a couple of years ago. It was really early stage but very exciting, and actually, since we did the deal, we've seen many more competitors trying to get into this field. Originally, we were focused on just the dog indication, and that's because you can see how big the dog osteoarthritis market is and it is a big market. It also will be a very competitive market.
This year, one of the things that we've done is initiate studies in horses, and that's for a couple of reasons. One is for us, the equine portfolio and the equine business is really the right sort of size and scale. We're smaller than the big guys, but the vets who manage horses, you can see, it's a smaller group, it's a more focused group, and so for us, that's really good. It might not be such an enormous opportunity, but it's a really clear opportunity, and we know that these products should be effective, so we can never tell till we've done the studies. That's why we took the decision to go into equine as well. There is a chance, although no guarantee, that the regulatory process might be a bit quicker as well, and so what we'd like to do is get moving really. We'll go into dogs later in the year; dogs will be a little bit more complicated because of the route of administration, but it's a huge market and we're really excited, but we're also really clear that these are, today, if they are in the clinic, they're only just in the clinic, so they're really pre-clinical. So there's a long way to go before these actually launch in 2027-2028.
But we have the license for two targets at the moment that we're working on. We also have the option to license other targets that Orthos comes up with. So Orthos, you know, the potential is enormous. It could be cancer, it could be, you know, any range of things, so we have the option to license those. We're not going to do that and exercise it until we know the first two. So that's what we're doing with the antibody-based agreement, and the reason why we did this was because the later stages that drugs get to, the more expensive it is to buy into. So we thought we'd start nurturing early, and we've also, the funding is built on that premise, so early funding, small, and it grows as you become certain of the outcome. So this is exciting, but we're really careful about it, and we'll see what happens.
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Zoetis CEO mentions their in-market monoclonal antibody product for cats and dogs:
Bloomberg TV - 4/3/24
Zoetis CEO: Owners Willing to Pay 'Whatever it Takes' on Pet Health
Kristin Peck, CEO of Zoetis, on how Gen Z and Millennials are driving the increase in spending at the vets. Kristin joins Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on 'The Pulse'.
Quarterly chart since company spun out of Pfizer:
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
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