Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 23/11/2021 21:53

JT "..unless the Lenders agreed to them." That's the point isn't it, would they or wouldn't they? I don't know but I do know that if they have to make a significant repayment in July 2022 (I know we don't have the repayment schedule but it would be normal to make a repayment plus interest at one year for this type of loan) and yet maintain that cash buffer and pay for all that gear and work etc., as detailed in the latest CPR, they will struggle, so one way or another a solution needs to be found doesn't it?

[solo4yous] 23/11/2021 21:51

Dont forget the whole JTI Local NIMBYS love a failed project

Further info:

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 21:42

1347: but all these options other than equity are precluded in the loan agreement documentation, as I understand it, unless the Lenders agreed to them. The problem with an equity issue would be that the share price would have taken a toss as the risk of default became apparent, and investors might jib at putting up millions more merely to repay a quarter of an outstanding loan and associated interest. Their gas prospects would have to look very promising. It would amount practically to a re-capitalisation.

[1347] 23/11/2021 21:28

Oh I thought you meant those in your bathroom. Anyway OIL didn't call that out as a risk so I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

Yes a refinance is a possibility but anyone who does due diligence will see what we see and given that they seem to have had Hobson's choice first time around and haven't exactly kept to the revised, revised timescales since, I struggle to see who would advance them the funds, either by asset backed finance or a significant equity stake.

Maybe a pay day loan or the normal pump and dump to retail PIs or maybe Paddy has some connections that would like to channel funds through the London laundromat, or could the (unidentified) entities behind Aleph be interested? Either way the existing shareholders get wiped out, unless they are part of it, so where would those major shareholders such as Knowe and Forrest stand on that?

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 21:21

Jonny: the above post is largely supposition, yes.

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 20:59

No, it’s hydrate plugs in gas pipelines that have been abandoned for a while and that have been associated with a significant water content. The detection and treatment of them is quite complicated. Perhaps it’s one of the aspects of running the plant in which their resident team of technicians is being trained. Let’s hope they don’t encounter any when they open the valves.

Re the loan, I don’t understand why the loan documentation is so detailed, restrictive and complete, and took five months to “negotiateR21; even after the terms had been agreed, if the Lenders don’t intend to exercise their option to take Poundland in the event of a technical default. They’ll have given Anguish plenty of time to complete it. Anguish will have only themselves to blame if they default. And do you think the Lenders are impressed with the Anguish management and want these bozos running a business with which they’re associated in the long term? They’ll give it to a junior chap in their natural gas department to run, I expect. Someone a bit too cerebral to make it big in the commodity trading division.

It’s more likely, I think, that Anguish will try to go to the market to get themselves out of a hole. If they can show a gas flow sufficiently strong to enable them to predict positive longer-term returns, and demonstrate that they’re just suffering a temporary embarrassment, it’s possible they may get an equity issue away, but it may have to be a very big one.

[1347] 23/11/2021 20:34

JT - If you use silly predicates then you can get the figures to show whatever you want them to. In my view stating first gas in February and 7 MMSCFD is so optimistic at this stage of affairs as to be classed as fantasy, at least by me. Also assuming all revenue is available to pay down the debt (and from from day 1) is just plain wrong. I have my model, I can tweak it fairly quickly when the new plan is out or some new information comes to light, people over in Kansas don't influence that at all. After all the ocebots been trying that approach for ages, it's totally discredited (also at UDOG). The timing of loan repayments (which I expect will be re-negotiated anyway [the alternative being default]) and the type of hedges are the main bits of information that I'm missing. What's your worry about plugs, is it a form of konsentophobia?

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 20:00

1347: if PeterAshbeck can’t get the price up, they’ve shot their bolt, what? He’s done his sums but not looked into the background. So not this week. I’m worried about hydrate plugs too!

[headinthesand] 23/11/2021 18:03

DaveMarn/Solo4Yous/EchDelta/HelloAmora/UltimateJustice9/3Put/CantRememberThis2/CuddoThisNow and numerous other fake IDs...

When it comes to dishonesty, you and your numerous multiple IDs all spamming and pretending to talk to each other across several different share discussion boards win the deception title hands down. Anything to attempt to drown out more cautious opinions with another flood of copy n paste nonsense and barefaced lies, eh?

The jury's out as to whether you're a paid boiler room stooge (and not at all a competent one), or a short-term trader who got his buy-in point wrong (and thus not at all a competent one either).

Either way, your sole motive is very obviously to pick the pockets of more unwary PIs. The contempt you invariably show for genuine long-suffering ANGS PIs precisely shows you up for exactly what you are - and frankly, yours is a sick way to attempt to earn a few bob at the direct expense of others.

[headinthesand] 23/11/2021 17:21

JTI's "not allowed on this board", eh?

That's the trouble with being a bare-faced liar, "DaveMarn" of 1,000 faces... it's so hard to keep track of which of your IDs is meant to copy n pasting what on which bulletin board.

You really are breathtakingly incompetent.

[ja51oiler] 23/11/2021 17:19

HITS
It's amazing isn't it how as the weeks go on those who called better-informed posters liars have come round!

If the 2 wells are turned back on without any issues (Highley unlikely) They will probably hit 5 to 5.5 MMFCF after a couple of months' build up at lower levels as demonstrated when they were last switched back on. They will start to fall away again after this back to around 4.4 MMSCF looking at the historical figures and water cut going up so rapidly. They will continue a rapid decline and massive increase in that expensive water cut from then on. That pays the loan back just about. Nothing leftover though.

For them to make this a success the sidetrack is critical in my opinion and is going straight into a depleted reservoir. 9 previous failed sidetracks doesn't fill you with confidence but my guess is they are hoping to get around another 3 MMSCF if they get lucky.

As you say we probably wouldn't know the actual figures until the OGA report them three months later. Angus has form for telling porkies in that regard! See the Lidsey production RNS and the reality that eventually came out.

That would be September next year in my opinion!

Of course, they will run out of money before then, so expect a raise of one sort or another in the next few months!

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 17:19

Jonny: no, still no good. What was that supposed to be? Why do you suppose Poundland will be brought to successful and profitable gas production in February/March by Anguish, the first success they will have achieved since they listed? In by far the most complicated project in which they’ve been involved and for which they haven’t got the necessary permissions yet. And which is already way behind schedule. And where in the CPR is the budget for Anguish’s own annual expenses? Where is that going to come from?

[davemarn] 23/11/2021 17:03

Hits your team's effort across here is worse

All negative suppositions to drive share price lower is worse in my books.

You don't hold stock not does your local friend JTI who isn't allowed on this board

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 17:00

gaffer: yes, you’re right. If they get to first gas in March and it flows anywhere near a sustained 5mmscfd, and if gas prices are still high then, they should be able to meet the loan terms (assuming they’re for annual repayments and interest) this summer. Thereafter the hedges will be the issue but with a successful sidetrack, they will be OK on that front too. It's all a question of how much reliance you put on their ability to do these things. They're way behind schedule. There is no kit on the site (a good thing, it’s not been prepared and is nearly five months late) and once it’s delivered, they have multiple small contractors turning up to fit the bits together. Not Halliburton. And look at the record to date. An update is due. There have been no Director purchases since the two non-execs bought a few in July/August. There are just four working weeks between now and 4 January. They haven't got the two important regulatory approvals yet. They have a sidetrack to drill and a hundred yards of steel pipeline to meet the NG connection point.

[headinthesand] 23/11/2021 16:55

DaveMarn/Solo4Yous/EchDelta/HelloAmora/UltimateJustice9/3Put/CantRememberThis2/CuddoThisNow and numerous other fake IDs...

When it comes to dishonesty, you and your numerous multiple IDs all spamming and pretending to talk to each other across several different share discussion boards win the deception title hands down. Anything to attempt to drown out more cautious opinions with another flood of copy n paste nonsense and barefaced lies, eh?

The jury's out as to whether you're a paid boiler room stooge (and not at all a competent one), or a short-term trader who got his buy-in point wrong (and thus not at all a competent one either).

Either way, your sole motive is very obviously to pick the pockets of more unwary PIs. The contempt you invariably show for genuine long-suffering ANGS PIs precisely shows you up for exactly what you are - and frankly, yours is a sick way to attempt to earn a few bob at the direct expense of others.

[sincero1] 23/11/2021 16:34

jtisadly - again no ... ok if i must ... supposition " a belief held without proof or certain knowledge; an assumption or hypothesis"

now crayons out and start colouring in.

ja51contractvoidoiler "If it produces enough to pay the lenders back which it should everyone is happy. "which it should" are you feeling ok ? did you miss your mouth with a crayon and stab yourself in the head instead ?

[ja51oiler] 23/11/2021 16:33

Moron

Sorry, I should correct the statment regarding being happy!

Everyone except the PI's who were misled (Insert an alternative word if you wish) and paid for the trip to get to nearly a Billion shares!



Its quite simple. Angus has taken out the loan. SEL has guaranteed the loan with a debenture in all its assets to the lenders as have Angus.

Neither company makes any money until Saltfleetby produces gas. If it produces enough to pay the lenders back which it should everyone is happy.

Every day of further delay is not good news around £15/£20k down the pan......If they get to a point where the loan is due and they can't pay, the lenders can take the assets of both companies......Simple isn't it!