Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ja51oiler] 23/11/2021 11:51

JT
When you look at the planning permission it's hard to see how they can actually build the pads for new design before they have done the sidetrack works. That's if the new design is even allowed under the consented permission? It's tripled in size after all. So if they cant build the pads beforehand they definitely won't be able to do them when the sidetrack is being done as the equipment for that takes up most of the site. Six weeks minimum for the sidetrack up to 16 weeks as well discussed already..LOL!! Then 30 Pads and associated bunding to build, the Flare, The HGV fill-up points for water and condensate,(again bunded presumably) and that's assuming they have managed to fit the 3KM of pipework before the sidetrack starts. Then the 30 pieces of equipment need to be craned in and connected and the thousands of other smaller widgets that they will need and know doubt overlooked!

Peter over on the other site should have a bet on Newcastle! His odds would be about the same as far as I can see!!

[sincero1] 23/11/2021 11:42

rastuss i thought you had filtered me ..tut tut lying again.... try posting without the negative supposition .... i bet the posts would be considerably shorter ... probably blank as you have nothing but negative supposition hence the weather, pipework, project managing desperate posts ... you are just embarrassing yourself further which is quite an achievement considering the discredit and ridicule you have already suffered.... do try harder... and keep off the crayons....

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 11:30

Yes, Jonny, project manager. Don’t want the sidetrack drilled from the wrong place. Or things done before approval is given? There’s a bit of history here, what?

[solo4yous] 23/11/2021 11:26

Short Seller Observation 7: “Come July, even if the well is producing at 5 mmscfd, ANGS's revenues would then drop to sub £1m”

Actual Reality Observation 7:
As of November 2021 Angus Energy revenue is £0m yes NOTHING. To imply that £1m monthly revenue is a ‘drop’ is so laughable I am having kittens. If we extrapolate that out to 12 months that is well over 25% current market capitalisation levels already! The company has said they believe the pressure around the well heads to have improved over time. Therefore any initial fizzy bottle job could improve INITIAL revenues, heck even exceed expectations! A pathetic illogical short seller argument, demonstrates their desperation at finding pseudo flaws in any investment case that is positive!

Short Seller Observation 8: “…strongly suggests to me that ANGS believes it needs a successful sidetrack to be able to deliver sufficient production.”

Actual Reality Observation 8:
The company has already answer this question. They do not believe a sidetrack is essential to deliver sufficient production, in a recent Q&A they have responded with their judgement, Id rather go by their technical expertise than a keyboard warrior who is more than likely a local, short seller or both!
From Angus Energy:
“The lenders technical advisers and Angus evaluated the deliverability of the existing two wells as being likely to be greater than 5 mmscfd. The reasoning was twofold. In the last years of delivery to the old Conoco refinery, average production was constrained by persistent issues with the main compressor at Theddlethorpe. Secondly it was the view of technical experts that, following a prolonged shut-in, the two wells should have improved deliverability in the first 18 months or so of operations. This is because prior to shut in there was an area of reduced pressure around the producing wells. Since then the pressure has equilibrated across the field resulting in significantly higher pressure around the producers. So it is our view that the hedged production should be able to be covered by these two wells in the event of failure of the sidetrack”

[sincero1] 23/11/2021 11:23

jtisadly - project manager added to the list of this disingenuous old fools specialities to help try and be negative .... meteorologist, pipework specialist , project manager ..more to follow as he gets ever more desperate .... the non and never been shareholder who only posts on this share and only negatively ...... sounds really genuine doesn't he ....

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 11:19

JA51: yes, I agree about the hedges, as you know. I’m not sure either what will happen with the multiple small contractors. Have Anguish got them all on some kind of rolling contract under which they turn up as each relevant bit of kit arrives? What happens if the small contractors arrange to do other work, for someone else? It only takes one specialist not to turn up on time to cause further delays to the whole thing. Who’s doing the project management?

[ja51oiler] 23/11/2021 11:10

JT
I have always said the Hedge kicks in from July for a reason. I think even this date may be pushing it a bit now though with the amount of work and regulators involved.

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 10:14

JA51: thanks! That’s the kind of wording one would expect, what?

Do you think their silence may be the result of being required by the EA to answer a longish list of questions to do with the changes to the plan they submitted earlier?

[ja51oiler] 23/11/2021 10:08

JT
It's bad news presented in the middle of a couple of bits of every day/good news!

Something like We are pleased to report The top of the rig for the sidetrack is on route and drilling is slated now for mid-Jan. However, we have delays with equipment blah blah blah....and in anticipation of our Geothermal works we are proposing to raise £??? Million as an equity buffer as the lenders would expect, After consulting our partners it was decided not to proceed with an appeal against the Balcombe decision. Ended with we continue to discuss and interpret the new data at Lidsey with our partners.

A Shix Sandwich!!

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 09:51

JA51: what’s a Shix sandwich?

[ja51oiler] 23/11/2021 09:29

Is a quadruple decker Shix sandwich inbound?

[jtidsbadly] 23/11/2021 09:26

HITS: PeterAshbeck appears not to have been following this company for very long. If his assumptions on start date were correct, or anywhere near being correct, which of the following things would you be doing with the share price at 0.8p?

1. Buying as many shares as you could get your hands on.

2. There’s isn’t really a 2 is there, or a 3 or four? Why have the Directors bought next to no shares? It would get the share price up and give them huge returns if these assumptions are correct.

The facts are as you describe. I’d be surprised if they do the sidetrack first now, unless they’re allowed to do it simultaneously with building the plant. They can’t afford any delays, they’ll be better off getting to first gas as soon as possible. If they’re really confident of a sustainable 6-7mmscfd from the two existing wells, they’ll be able to get the benefit of the higher prices before July and meet the hedge conditions thereafter.

They’re almost five months behind the schedule announced after the debt signing and key pieces of kit are either still in the sea lanes or awaiting shipment. Other bits of kit are in factories somewhere being refurbished. They’ve got multiple contractors due to come on site at some stage. The pipeline has to be finished and the NG has to be satisfied that it’s all working safely. Has the design work been completed? What can be the reason for their preferring not to keep shareholders informed? Are they on budget? Why are they not filling their boots with shares?

If they’re short of the money they need and short of gas in June, it will probably be over for them. If they're short of the money but have gas flow sufficient to assure shareholders of a return, they’ll be able to access the share market for money. AIM shareholders don’t seem to realise that a doubling of the no. of shares in issue represents a halving in the value of their investment, unless it’s going to double net profits. With Anguish, placings have been made to date in order to bail them out, not to increase earnings. This looks rather like it would be another of those.

[headinthesand] 23/11/2021 08:59

This is all total bollix. It's actually brutally simple.

There are two near-term milestones that both need to be hit without fail.

1. Poundland (the field in total, forget the split) needs to be producing enough revenue come June to meet the first swathe of already committed-to debt funding costs.

2. Poundland needs to be producing enough gas come July and onward to meet the hedged volumes already committed to.

That's it.

The fact that nothing seems to be going on onsite (according to the company's own very recently tweeted pix) is concerning, because it shows that further schedule slippage has already occurred (but the company hasn't informed the market of this as of yet).

According to its own issued information, ANGS is meant to be starting its sidetrack in just six weeks' time (Jan 4th)... but there's still no equipment onsite and the required groundworks don't seem to have been started yet.

Every week of delay/inaction that goes by adds another week to sidetrack date and to first gas date. And let's not forget, first gas is already at least 14 months overdue against ANGS's first assurances...

This looks like it's going down to the wire - and the possibility of ANGS producing any gas and banking some much-needed revenue prior to the hedge kicking in becomes less likely every single day.

ANGS FINALLY needs to deliver. How much gas, George? And by when? Those are literally life or death questions for the company.

[jtidsbadly] 22/11/2021 16:20

1347: yes, I do know you know! A couple of amusing posts elsewhere about placing.

It’s all looking good in the Weald, what? Knees bend, arms stretched ra, ra, ra. All vaguely reminiscent of events in Perth before the riverbank encounter

[sincero1] 22/11/2021 16:19

13reallyneedsahobby47cptmainwaring " Stops timer at 1 minute" - pahahaha...this pompous old fart actually thought i had replied to his post.....embarrassed again.... what a complete tit.... an irrelevant nobody not worthy of a reply ....