Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bionicdog] 04/10/2021 13:30

No it doesn't.

[whocares765] 04/10/2021 13:27

Looks good

[1347] 04/10/2021 13:22

HITS Given the length of time it may take to get that EA permit and given that they'll need to book a drilling rig and there's not that many of those around, I think they would struggle now to drill and complete before first gas in February 2022, unless of course first gas gets pushed back yet again. It's now just 17 weeks to the end of Jan 2022 and their plans show 16 weeks for the drill programme (dimwits please note 'programme'). I also don't think they can afford to risk delaying generating some revenue to have any chance of hitting that first onerous loan repayment in June.

[jtidsbadly] 04/10/2021 13:16

HITS: I think it’s very clear that Angus had no say in the hedges and, as you know, I’d be surprised if the Lenders didn't write the contracts. I don’t think Angus will make money from Poundland, unless production surprises to the upside. All the operating profit, even on decent production, may go to the Lenders.

If the EA doesn’t fast-track them, I’ll be surprised. But all these regulatory bodies seem to have a safety responsibility, judging from their websites and their guidance as to where to go to ask specific types of question. So you never know. Angus have shown themselves to be a bit of a rabble, haven’t they? I wouldn’t want to live within a few hundred yards of a gas plant operated by them.

I don’t understand why there’s been nothing on Twitter about progress at Poundland. LCC have not been informed of the start of any work there. Weren't the groundworks to have been done in August in preparation for kit being delivered in late September? We know what happens to groundworks there once it starts raining seriously, what? An accurate update would be nice.

I agree that the timing of the sidetrack will be a difficult decision, but it may turn out to be dictated by the timing/availability of kit.

[headinthesand] 04/10/2021 12:57

The whole question of the benefits/necessity of the sidetrack continues to interest me.

Leaving aside ANGS's petulant incompetence over how long the sidetrack will take (where they amusingly got incandescent with rage at posters quoting from their own document back at them)...

ANGS has now stated its belief that a successful sidetrack would roughly double production volumes from Poundland.

Now although even the cheerleader cretins next door can no longer pretend that the hedge is for a mere percentage-based amount (of course it's for a fixed volume amount), nobody outside the company, its lenders and Shell knows what that fixed volume actually is (as I've said, I suspect between 2.1 and 2.8 mmscfd - if only because ANGS would have been madly optimistic to base it on any higher level of production).

So, two questions are begged:-

1. Will either the hedge commitments or the already incurred debt funding commitments (or both) require a successful sidetrack to be drilled or not? (That of course partly depends on the fixed volume hedged versus the total amount of gas that can be coaxed consistently out of Poundland without a sidetrack).

2. Given that drilling a sidetrack will delay or interrupt production for some length of time (somewhere between 4 and 16 weeks, depending on which version of ANGS's own statements one relies upon), there's an argument that says drilling it as early as possible would be beneficial (if it really is going to double production volumes) EVEN IF this delays getting to consistent production and EVEN IF this means ANGS cannot take advantage of selling gas pre-hedge.

Reading between the lines of recent ANGS burble, I still think George seems pretty keen on going for the sidetrack ASAFP (with the grant of planning permission being presumed). Either because of 1 above, 2 above or both.

I guess we can only wait and see. There'll still be no clarity forthcoming on any of this until well into 2022 IMO.

[jtidsbadly] 04/10/2021 12:13

Oh good, he’s disappeared again. Good job, bionicdog!

[jtidsbadly] 04/10/2021 12:11

1347: yes, all is quite well now, I’m sure. I hope responding to questionnaires, if any, from each of OGA, EA and HSE will not serve merely to distract the part-time Interim MD from the demands of uncovering Cornish patsies etc, and worrying about how he’s going to get those Rouser Trousers off, what?

HITS: it’s going to be a long wait for the answer to that. It seems to me, by the way, that the bulls in Kansas(!) haven’t worked out yet that the Lenders are probably on the other side of the hedges - the terms of which are an important part of your q.1.

bionicdog: did we speak too soon?

[clottedq] 04/10/2021 12:08

Excellent news. Perhaps we can get back to having a grown up conversation here now and debate the FACTS?

CQ ;-)

[jtidsbadly] 04/10/2021 12:00

bionicdog: well done, thanks very much.

[whocares765] 04/10/2021 11:25

Angus Energy look odds on to First Gas Q1 2022 :)

They will do marvellously IMO
Getting to 4p per Angus Energy share faster than saying boo!

[headinthesand] 04/10/2021 11:21

ANGS will rerate (or not) based on the answers to just two simple questiosn:-

1. How much gas can be consistently produced from Poundland, once it has entered production?

2. When will Poundland start consistent monthly production?

As any investor with more braincells than fingers and toes has long known, it's exclusively and solely about "how much and by when?" I'm not expecting the answers until well into next year.

[bionicdog] 04/10/2021 11:19

All your posts are gone you plank.

[whocares765] 04/10/2021 11:17

Its very important to understand that Angus Energy will NATURALLY re-rate with or without shorters

But they will be doing me a service...

Getting to 4p per Angus Energy share faster than saying boo!

[1347] 04/10/2021 11:06

JT Indeed. If only those internal documents hasn't been leaked to the LCC and EA all this confusion could have been avoided eh? As a shareholder in the company I'm none too happy about that, thankfully though LL's cleared it all up, what?

[jtidsbadly] 04/10/2021 10:50

1347: concern raised with HSE now. That’s me done! Their statement last week doesn't seem to say they’re planning to undertake any kind of well test or clean-up, does it? I’m not trying to give them a hard time but, since they’re not interested in informing the market on any matter of importance, I feel the safety and compliance issues should be aired. I’m sure they will have answers and that the various regulatory agencies will be fully satisfied but it's as well to be sure, isn’t it?

[jtidsbadly] 04/10/2021 10:08

1347: I posted that before I saw yours. Yes, this is exactly what I have queried. I’ve asked whether the well test was a condition of the pp and whether there are safety considerations in the decision not to conduct the well test to which they seemed to commit themselves. I should have added “environmental considerations”;. I’ll attach here a link to the EA comments request site next.