Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 02/10/2023 06:44

I'm not sure given the fact they are quite closely intertwined (Kemexon hold shares in Aleph International Holdings Ltd), and Aleph have been named as an advisor to Anguish Energy and arranged the Nijmegen Bridge Loan with Kemexon that they are individual shareholders. The issue of whether they are acting in concert is something very relevant and something that Anguish ought to comment on. In my view this fall in share price has been engineered to facilitate a lower conversion price and potentially a low ball take over down the line.

[ja51oiler] 02/10/2023 06:20

Well, this isn't going to please some!!

Recently answered questions

Hello, are Aleph and Kemexon engineering a take-over at this level?

Thanks

Simon Asked on 2 October 2023

We cannot comment on the plans of individual shareholders.

[jtidsbadly] 29/9/2023 21:48

1347: well, shareholders are overdue the end-September Investor Questions and the answers to them. Perhaps we’ll get some discussion of the flow rates when these are published early next week. I don’t suppose anyone will ask a question about the pricing of the conversion of the £3mm. bridging loan. If they do, Mr. ‘Erbert may feel entitled to point out that the original convertibility terms were described last March by the previous Pen Holder, for whom he has little respect, not by him. He wasn’t even on the Board.

There’s a lot of poorly informed comment in Kansas about yesterday's RNS. I’m at a loss to understand how the lower conversion price can be given a bullish interpretation. Still, look at Vast over the past two days. Anything can happen in these AIM companies, for a while at least.

[jtidsbadly] 29/9/2023 11:12

JA51: yes, Carlos will be neither here nor there to Mercuria, in my view. They’re sitting reasonably pretty. They’d like their loan money (which Angus didn’t need) back as soon as possible and get their 8% of turnover royalty. The rest is noise.

I think Lucan was pushed out. I’m not sure the new Pen Holder realised that he’d have to make certain compromises with his amour propre in order to keep the share price even reasonably stable. His performance appears to have been pretty poor so far. He’s been like a Trappist novice selected by his superiors to defend the indefensible at whatever cost to his own reputation. Mostly silent, and obfuscatory when he has to communicate. And it hasn’t worked.

[ja51oiler] 29/9/2023 10:40

Actually thinking about it, he is probably very popular with Mercuria!!,,,, Not sure if they would want him in the team moving forward though!

[ja51oiler] 29/9/2023 10:37

JT
I dont think Carlos being replaced as company secretary is coincidental to the £3 million being converted. He and Lord "Seven Fingers" (Apologies) are very much the old guard and probably aren't very popular wth, Mercuria, or Kemexon. After all pretty much everyone is underwater now.

Was "Lord Melton Mowbrey" pushed, or did he leave of his own accord?

I think a wholesale clean out of the dross is inevitable, whatever the outcome.

[jtidsbadly] 29/9/2023 10:25

JA51: I’m not sure about the Carlos bit or Mercuria. Carlos is in this deep, in my view. And Mercuria would, I’m sure, like to retain their royalty, so any deal would need to accommodate them.

Also, I don’t agree about “Lord Nine-Fingers”. It’s seven fingers, surely? He still has a pair of opposing digits, or thumbs, what?

[jtidsbadly] 29/9/2023 10:14

1347: I’m not arguing that they’re innocent victims of circumstance. I’m actually in full agreement with you on this. None of stupidity, inexperience, greed or dishonesty is an excuse for a company Director who transgresses the laws and regulations nor would any of these constitute a valid legal defence. I think Angus is AIM in microcosm and would therefore make a useful test case, if the FCA could be bothered to pursue them.

[jtidsbadly] 28/9/2023 21:43

1347: I think they’re in a cleft stick. One of the June RNS’s on the subject of the bridging loans said they had no intention of issuing more equity. Things have clearly developed in a way not necessarily to Anguish’s advantage since then, what? Mercuria are probably getting fed up and playing hard ball, albeit they’d like their royalty as early as possible (or perhaps they’re not, perhaps Anguish are a bit desperate to avoid that kicking in for as long as possible?). Kemexon has used the opportunity to twist Anguish’s arm and get a far better deal for converting their £3mm. than was stipulated in the original loan terms. The very late disclosure of this poor deal and the fact that they’re talking about the new year as the possible date for the signing of the loan to end all loans, including the £12mm loan they didn’t need, suggests Anguish have a very weak footing all round in the loan discussions. Mercuria are still in a position to veto more loans if they feel they need to protect their position. So we may see the £6mm. being converted into equity in due course at an even lower price level, prompting some kind of bid. Which would, of course, endorse your long-held view of the likely outcome. Though whether it was all planned this way by Anguish or whether the incompetents in charge of it have just blundered from one expensive short-term expedient to another to try to keep the thing afloat remains, to me, a moot point.

[jtidsbadly] 28/9/2023 19:12

1347: re the loan conversion, it seems to me they’ve just made it all up, six months after taking the £3mm. Maybe it just emphasises the weak negotiating position in which Anguish finds itself. I read the March statement as putting a floor of 1p on the conversion price. 0.66p is rather more favourable to Kemexon. Anguish seem to be paying off very little of their debt from the cash flows that their gas operations are throwing off too.

In the March RNS, they also said this:

“In line with that earlier announcement, and the Company's commitment to deliver returns to shareholders through the appreciation of the share price and distributions, the Company will resort to equity finance only to support accretive acquisitions or projects, Angus is pleased to confirm that it has now entered into a GBP 3 million junior debt facility (the "Bridge Facility") to manage costs arising from the extended drilling operations as well as initial studies around the development of natural gas and hydrogen storage at Saltfleetby.” Admittedly that was the work of the earlier Pen Holder, but his replacement has not had a good start, has he? They’d clearly have been better off holding another big equity placing early in the Spring. I seem to remember we were right about that at the time too.

I hope someone is watching the percentage of issued shares in the hands of Aleph Commodities, Kemexon, the Aleph pop-ups and the Aleph group associates. At some stage, they will be required to make a formal bid.

[bionicdog] 28/9/2023 15:52

12M
Has one of your sources explained it all to you?

[1347] 28/9/2023 13:27

JT Yes converting a £3 m (plus interest, plus fees) loan is not really any different than a £3 m placing, it amounts to the same thing, as I pointed out when that ridiculous and misleading statement was made in the first place.

Anyway, as you are one of the few on here that have the ability to understand written English properly then what is your view on the conversion price? This is part of the original terms:

"The Company has the option to repay the junior loan in shares at a 25% discount to the 30 day VWAP, subject to a floor at 1p and this same option is also available to the lender but only in the event of default."

I know the use of the term floor is ambigious as it could mean the floor price for the actual conversion or the floor price of the VWAP used as the reference for the 25% discount, i.e. a 0.75p conversion floor price. However the conversion is at 0.66 p, well below both.

It's also interesting to note that Kemexon only had the right to convert in default so Anguish have initiated this and done so at a price lower than what they informed market would be the case?

As for the flows. I don't recall them stating more maintenance was required in September and the flow line was supposed to be commissioned at the end of August, so why have they not informed market what's happening? Halving the flow rates will surely have a material effect on revenue?

PS: Oh and I expect a concerted ramping effort now that they've dialled the share price down as low as they could for this Related Party (aka Mates Rates) conversion. I see after an absence the ocebot has been re-deployed, always a reliable technical indicator and who I still suspect is linked to the company in some way, like onetomany.

[jtidsbadly] 28/9/2023 13:01

Well, this is essentially a placing isn’t it? I thought we weren’t going to be seeing any more of those under the new management. Mercuria seem to be taking their time in agreeing terms on a successor loan to the one Anguish didn’t need. Their covenants give them the whip hand. Mr. ‘Erbert is new to this, no one told him about all those SS panzers Mercuria had hiding on the other side of the Nijmegan Global loan re-financing.

1347: re the lower flow, this could be to do with linking up the new permanent flowline, or it could be due to the existing plant needing more downtime for maintenance than the new management imagined it would, (the CPR said five weeks plus per annum), or it could be a problem with the flow of this already heavily depleted field (the CPR said the flow should start to reduce by 10% after 12 months or so and continue at a similar rate p.a. thereafter). Perhaps someone will be asking a question tomorrow on the topic.

[onetomany] 28/9/2023 12:29

Really exciting times now. Very smart move converting the debt. Couple of months to arrange the larger finance agreement and meanwhile significant immediate cash flow benefits from high gas prices, reduced finance cost and permanent flow line connect next week. Balance sheet looking very good and confidence in the company at an all time high. Will start to see a rerate very soon and expect dividends can't be far off.

[onetomany] 28/9/2023 12:15

You've misunderstood

[1347] 28/9/2023 12:13

Oh and gas flows are even lower today, they haven't informed market why that is, have they.

[1347] 28/9/2023 12:12

Also as I predicted they've knocked the Warrants down to the same price 0.66p. Pretty clear to me what's going on here, equity wipeout in favour of the related parties. The lock up period is also meaningless if they can still sell the shares they already have, as shares are fungible. Same old Anguish Energy, disgraceful company in my opinion.

[1347] 28/9/2023 12:01

"The Company's 12.5% shareholder, Kemexon Ltd ("Kemexon"), has agreed to convert its £3m Junior Bridge Facility, together with interest and fees, into equity in the Company at a price of 0.66 pence per share. Kemexon has also committed to a one year lock-up of those shares."

I thought the floor for the Nijmegen loan was 1.00 p? This is below that price and even below a 25% discount to that price 0.75 p (if you interpret 'floor' in that way).

What the hell, is this a new level of disingenuity and trickery by Anguish or have I misunderstood something here?

[bionicdog] 27/9/2023 16:06

You should have sold VAST for 0.8p.