Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 08/4/2022 15:49

llb - I think your 50musd is a good stab at Q1 earnings. There is such a wide range of possibilities depending upon mine volumes, actual contract prices and delivery dates (do I remember reading that one or more missed the 31st December for Q4 so could be an extra boost?).

I was cautiously estimating $46musd for Q1 but recognise that's overly conservative now - I can agree with Cocopah - 60-65musd at the top of the range.

cheers

[cocopah] 08/4/2022 15:29

#LLB Are you thinking somewhere in the region of $60-$65 million (I don’t know how many deliveries we had from VB in Q1) but that would roughly extrapolate the contribution from the rest of the royalties …🤔9300;

[cocopah] 08/4/2022 15:25

Tomps2 thanks for the share I’ve listened to it. Despite the host being complimentary about the ‘slammer’; I thought the latter was ill-prepared. He should’ve had the knowledge to communicate why JT sold out, able to communicate the detail about how fast the debt was being reduced and a better understanding of the development royalties that will replace Kestrel. Still as they say “no publicity is bad publicity”. 👍🏻😎

[tomps2] 08/4/2022 09:51

Stockopedia/PIWORLD StockSlam - April 2022

Edmund Shing ‘slams’ Anglo Pacific (APF) in the latest PIWORLD/Stockopedia StockSlam at 17m14s

Watch the video here: www.piworld.co.uk/education-videos/stockopedia-piworld-stockslam-april-2022/

Or listen to the podcast here: piworld.podbean.com/e/stockopediapiworld-stockslam-april-2022/

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/4/2022 09:47

Q4-2020 income was USD38M with USD26M income from Kestrel at an average 308 met coal sales price achieved so there is substantial headroom for receipts in our Q1 update coming up..

We know prices hit 600 a tonne for a while, and with +50% income from Kestrel that COULD give us USD50M total or just over with an uplift from the rest of the portfolio..?

What are other holders expectations..?

[illiswilgig] 08/4/2022 09:38

IS that Dalian price cfr (with freight paid) dalian not fob (free on board) australia?

Yesterday prices that I can find

Premium hard coking coal, cfr Jingtang: $503.46 per tonne, up by $55.38 per tonne...

and

Premium hard coking coal, fob DBCT: $406.80 per tonne, up by $19.89 per tonne.......

With prices so high I expect volatility and my estimates (out of date now) were based upon just over 300usd from memory. I'm not raising them - and instead regarding prices above that as a bonus, at least for the next few months until the likely trend becomes clear.

cheers

[podgyted] 07/4/2022 22:38

Seen no comment on this board about this:-



Australian coking coal down from $596 (APF's table on 30/3/22 - which matches the graph) to $416.

However, Dalian Coking Coal futures are stable/rising - at @3,200 y they equate to @$505.

Seems to suggest (given the Australian stuff is premium and the Chinese stuff is not) that the Chinese are blocking Australian CC again - anyone have any info.??

[cocopah] 07/4/2022 19:00

Two of my favourite bugbears today on this board. Firstly I remain unimpressed that the dividend was not maintained and more importantly that the new CEO was very adamant that it will be 7p moving forwards … not even a hint that a special dividend might be paid or of a potential future progressive dividend policy.

My 2022 ISA money is going elsewhere.

I agree with LLB that there is little scope for new royalties or streams at decent value now (another reason for maintaining the dividend) and hope that the new CEO does not try and stamp his authority by jumping in on a deal somewhere. I also agree that getting rid of the debt is important but given the income we are generating this year (and probably the early part of next year) the 9p dividend is easily affordable (and there will be sufficient left for investing more in Incoa).

The decision over the dividend will not attract more investors and therefore I see the share price (despite analysts forecasts) struggling to maintain its current momentum. Essentially we are a dividend play and yet seem to have moved away from this.

As far as SWS are concerned I tackled them about their recent uninformed posts about APF … in fairness they engaged in a dialogue via DM on Twitter (and amended their comments about JT and why he might have sold) … however essentially they stood by their overall comments. I couldn’t be bothered taking the conversation further.

[johnrxx99] 07/4/2022 09:55

SWS is an aggregator site and of little use to active investors. However, I do look at it as I'm reminded of stocks I'd given up on from time to time.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/4/2022 09:13

#SteMis, we will not be adding many new royalties against the current commodity prices backdrop, counter cyclical pricing of royalties is what has set us up for the profits we are reaping now, but there could still be some bargains to be had from struggling explorers..

We can build on the existing royalties with Incoa/Piaui where the price is already locked in for us to do so, we did just add a new panel at Kestrel too, we have yet to see the cost but I expect this option will have been locked in many years ago..

Looking at the income for 2022, if prices do hold up I also expect to see us debt free and cash positive by year end, possibly end of Q3 the rate the debt can be smashed down, a 7 pence dividend and a bonus special is fine by me, but let us wipe out the debt 1st as IMO that is more important right now, the missing 2p for FY2021 could well be coming back at FY2022..

[woodhawk] 07/4/2022 09:08

I agree,SteMiS, a poor decision, imo. The good quarterly divi was a major attraction for me. The yield is now significantly reduced. Had the divi been increased, or even maintained, as I thought it would, I might have continued to hold. However, I have reduced my holding and will move APF to my trading portfolio to play the ups and downs more actively instead.

[stemis] 07/4/2022 09:05

I'd be a bit more impressed with 'Simplywall' if one of their negatives wasn't 'dividend of 3.89% not well covered by earnings'...

[stemis] 07/4/2022 09:03

I must admit I'd have been happier with this share if they hadn't decided to cut the dividend. Net debt at 31 March of ~$60m represents about 28c a share. Underlying profit of 25c should easily be surpassed this year (whether we accept 43c or not) so after paying 9c a share dividend, I doubt there'll be any debt left at the end of the year (probably net cash). I'm sceptical that building a war chest to buy further royalties at the current high level of commodity pricing is really in shareholders (as opposed to management empire building) interests...

[masurenguy] 07/4/2022 08:49

I'm not in the least bit interested in what Simply Wall St has to say. It is only their report upon an average of analysts price targets that has any significance.

[woodhawk] 07/4/2022 08:44

Simply Wall Street are all over the place - this is what they said just 2 days before...

The Consensus Just Cut Its Anglo Pacific Group plc (LON:APF) Estimates For 2022

"The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Anglo Pacific Group plc (LON:APF), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. ..."

hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-apf/anglo-pacific-group-shares/news/need-to-know-the-consensus-just-cut-its-anglo-pacific-group

[masurenguy] 07/4/2022 08:20

A 12% increase in the target price from an average of 3 analysts, and 22% above last nights close!

Anglo Pacific Group: Apr 06: Price target increased to £2.19. Up from £1.96, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of £1.80. Stock is up 34% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.43 for next year compared to US$0.18 last year.

[cocopah] 06/4/2022 19:28

#LLB I hope you are right! I’ll be out (and then back in again in 2024) with a tailwind to (hopefully) my capital and my income.😎

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/4/2022 17:36

#Cocopops, the share capital has not increased as much as you might think, it is up +20% from 181M to 212M with 5M in treasury, so the share price could with a bit of a tailwind from extended prices exceed the broker notes.. :o)

[cocopah] 06/4/2022 17:09

Always tricky to try and read the tea leaves long-term. However given the income will be substantial in 2022 I’m thinking a share price around £2.30 at some stage in the year.

We have a far greater number of shares in circulation now so market cap sustained by a share price of £2.50 seems a little out of reach.

Given that future income streams will not really kick in until 2024 and it’s unlikely that spot prices for our main assets will remain so elevated, I foresee a bounceback from those highs in 2023 before kicking on again in 2024. 🤷‍a94;️ 🤔

[woodhawk] 06/4/2022 16:36

It didn't rise to anywhere near that in 2020, LLB. It went from circa 100p to just over 160p. Don't you mean 2019?

...............

Ah, I see you've edited now.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/4/2022 16:10

There is always room for some selling the news on the Q1 update, but given we are about to report our earnings in the order of USD45-50M for the quarter I would expect the share price to continue to re-rate to somewhere in line with a sensible PE, the Q2/H1 results could well be even stronger with prices are holding up..

This mornings spike was most likely driven by a lot of year end Bed and Isa trades already set to trigger, along with some new ISA money coming in..

Our 2018 earnings of GBP49M (USD65M) were reported late Jan 2019 [edit], after which the share price rose from 145p to a high of 225p over 5 months with 180M shares in issue..

The 2019 record earnings of GBP57M/USD75M did not rally the share as Covid landed shortly after results January 2020 and the share price slumped.

We have just reported earnings for 2021 of USD86M (GPB64M), adjusting for the +20% dilution since and we are about the same EPS..

We are about to report a Q1 the same as FY2020 income when the share price was just 100 pence..

IF prices remain strong 2022 income has every chance of being double 2018/2019.

[otemple3] 06/4/2022 14:27

Seems more likely we'll rise into the trading update as it is clearly going to be bullish and result in long overdue broker upgrades

[woodhawk] 06/4/2022 14:03

Well done to anyone who got 190p+ this morning! Is APF due a pullback before the trading update?

[stavros28] 06/4/2022 09:10

Market makers testing the upside with a spike on the candle stick chart £ 1.92 .

Stavros

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/4/2022 18:21

#Cocopops, we have 2 broker buy notes out at 240p / 250p, these were months back and have not seen the Q1 earnings yet, let alone the Q2 which could exceed Q1, I think I will reserve my estimate for after our Q1 update 27.04.2022, but hopefully we will see those predictions and more…

A long way to go, and commodity prices could fall back just as quickly.., BUT the way the year has started with conflict/sanctions, prices could remain elevated for some time yet and 2022 income could be around 40% of our current MCAP which would be nuts at 180p a share…!

The VB debt could be gone in Q3/Q4 a year or 2 ahead of expectations, setting us up perfectly to add to existing royalty tiers, and we now have another Kestrel panel to smooth the royalty exit in hand for 2023/2024..

190/191/192 pence paid this morning after that really strong closing UT and new ISA day buyers adding ahead of the Q1 update ..