Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jbe81] 12/10/2016 09:39

Can sell 150k at over 20p

[csmwssk12hu] 12/10/2016 09:37

Holding with both hands

[jbe81] 12/10/2016 09:28

Shares very tightly held

[2sporrans] 12/10/2016 09:24

Hope your Alpine tour continues well Mattjos.

Don't overlook I retain what is, for me, a solid stake in AAZ.

"the next question of what to do with your profit?"
Albeit the continued fall in the £ is concerning in some ways, it's not altogether bad; neither for my portfolio nor for the UK.
For example, I'm very light in Sterling assets and what i do hold are largely $ earners.
Hold a lot of Asian income equities that have made me good profits over recent weeks but past years, indeed ['sadly'] decades now.
Mind you, taking profits out of these too as went decidedly overweight as their prices plunged late Summer-Autumn last year.
{For whatever reasons....there was much fear about Chinese assets/debt/currency/capital flows, ditto 'Emerging Markets'[eh?, like they are hardly homogenous.]. Yet European assets were spared the rod, as if they were relatively safe and American $, assets curried favour as if the American Consumer can always be depended upon to prop the whole show up.}
As for the UK, well one silver lining to the depreciating £ may well be a healthy rebalancing of the economy: Increase in Manufacturing and some tradable services, mirrored by decline in financial services; this reciprocated in relative boost to regions beyond London zone.
Good for import substitution, even if exports slow to pick up.
Hopefully helps Current Account: deficit=7% of GDP; underwritten by foreign investors....main reason for ongoing £ weakness as £ acts as the immediate adjustment 'valve'.
I voted to remain btw but not wholly Brexit phobic.
Political Union a step too far; far too soon at very least.
And Eurozone somewhat dysfunctional.
One suit does not all fit.
Conceivably, we may simply be 'first out of the door'.
My No.1 concern before the vote has been realised:
There is no solid, well knit Leadership team, with well thought through and cogent strategies to accomplish the job of negotiating an optimal solution.
Plus although as much as 60% of UK trade is now outwith the EU, our interests with it remain intertwined; so best to extent remain aligned, not opposed.

5% base rates, this year or next?
No way.
2% conceivably; that's if the US raises by a few 1/4's first.
Pointless trying to defend the £ by raising rates.
Cure worse than the ailment.

If you're that bothered about the £, best hope for the school of Hammond to prevail.

[csmwssk12hu] 12/10/2016 09:10

If it clears 20p then has even normal production figures I think 34p will be very quick imho

[jbe81] 12/10/2016 09:07

A good q3 followed by some drilling news and this could be over 40p in the next month, thats without any BIG news.

[csmwssk12hu] 12/10/2016 09:00

Ooh twitchy time buy button at ready

[cast_no_shadow] 11/10/2016 23:48

Leaving the Eurozone should lead to much lower prices as we will no longer be paying a high tariff on goods bought from the rest of the world. Models suggested as much as much as 20% lower assuming WTO world prices.

This obviously assumes the pound remains in its historical trading range. We'll have to see... lot of hot money short the pound right now.

Anyway right now it's very good for AAZ investors.

[zhockey] 11/10/2016 23:32

Like I said the bailout would be the result of sustaining the GBP, i.e. a Greece scenario. The alternative is letting the pound go and living with the inflation.

[zhockey] 11/10/2016 22:31

Like I said before the referendum, the world economy is a house of cards and a brexit would lead to the UK being the first to fall, this is now starting to unfold. Raising rates to protect the pound will lead to a depression in this country and IMF bailout, I hope the politicians are smart enough to see this.

The only way this will work is if they let the pound go, the standard of living will drop for many but that is what the leavers voted for, you made your bed...

P.S. this was all likely to happen anyway but the UK could have been a rock of stability, instead we have the Brexit that has put us at the front of the queue for economic destruction.

[wrighty46] 11/10/2016 22:11

Oh and I'm nearly in for nothing. Happy days. GLA

[wrighty46] 11/10/2016 22:11

News has been early every time this year, so expecting news tomorrow or Thursday. GLA a few may be caught out. My 294k is going nowhere for at least a year.

[mattjos] 11/10/2016 21:05

Slovenia tonight :-) .. snow on the way over the Alps from Austria. Just enough to hilight the stunning scenery.Price action reminds me of last time we breached 20p ... its all set up to trade much higher from here, given the right stimulus!All down to the expected Q3 newsflow this week now.If Gedabek has performed as anticipated & there is a whiff of +ve exploration / asset development then, stock will be like rocking-horse excrement & the MM's know it full well.The downside looks to be 25% at present but, the upside could be past 80p.Most of the regulars now likely have plenty of stock and waiting for the right catalyst to add some more. With all his shares & a further $4m in the game, I believe Reza & his excellent team will deliver soon enough. Give me patience .. I want it now! :-)

[terropol] 11/10/2016 20:31

World debt at all time high...$ 230 trillions, interest rates going nowere...
Debt still going up all over the place...
Gold is got to be the safest wealth preserver...You can not print it overnight....

looking forward to the next lot of news here.

[cast_no_shadow] 11/10/2016 20:06

I can't see 5% ever again. We're essentially a bankrupt country like most indebted western nations.

If base interest rates were as high as 5% we'd be spending most tax money repaying interest on our national debt.

Or more likely the yield curve would be massively inverted and the entire economy would crash.

We're all in a debt trap.

Agree the BOE were foolish to cut rates. There was no economic data to necessitate that and I was furious at the time it was announced.

Having said all this it's good for AAZ valued in sterling as the value of gold in pounds goes higher and higher. No doubt this is contributing to our recent rise. Price of gold in sterling is close to at all time highs now!

[mattjos] 11/10/2016 18:56

I suggest it will fall on the rumour and then stabilise on the fact

[csmwssk12hu] 11/10/2016 18:34

I can't see boe cutting again if anything the scale of drop in pound is concerning, I think they may regret early rate cut as they may well have to reverse rate cut and increase rates back towards a more normal 5% to stabilise pound

[ilostthelot] 11/10/2016 18:15

I would have thought increasing the Base rate is more likely to stabilise the pound .

[mattjos] 11/10/2016 18:09

2Sporrans, a profit is a profit so, understand the desire to bank some, albeit much too early in my opinion.However, that then raises the next question of what to do with your profit?Sterling's continues to get caned in the market.It's not that straightforward a calculation but, in the case of AAZ, it's revenues and earnings are in US$, much of its costs are in AZN.The bottom line is in US$, converted back into GB£ for reporting purposes here.GB£ is at 30+ year lows to US$ & still falling & I assume will continue to do so until such time as Carney cuts our rates to 0.1% or even less.Still fundamentally valued far too cheaply here and the rationale for investment get stronger each week. That's how I see it

[cyberbub] 11/10/2016 16:45

The 'real' spread today seems to have ended up around 19.90 - 19.95. A bit more buying and we could break through 20p IMO. Needs POG to hold up, and good news on production. I reiterate that 30-40p is a fairer price here, IMO.

[celeritas] 11/10/2016 15:52

Taking 20p as parity then the upside should be about 60p to follow others.
Licence news and maybe resource updates could take it a lot higher than that.

[celeritas] 11/10/2016 15:48

AAZ never followed gold up in the first place. For me its just about back to parity had Bashirov not sold.
Plenty going on in Azerbaijan being the only gold miner, I'm expecting to pick up at least one new licence.

[2sporrans] 11/10/2016 15:45

Thanks Jbravo

I saw that retrace to 15p as very likely down to a poor production figure for July; at least that was the obvious association and one generally accepted here [+ a seductive profit take opportunity for some that bought in mostly between 4 to 7p.]
Selling on basis of just 1 month's low production is daft though.
So I topped up on that; getting ~15.0p was lucky.

You might also say something similar wrt reacting to short term POG movements.
Then again, there's a lot of traders/momentum-investors that pile onto AIM stocks such as these; in this case usually as a geared play on the POG.
Not that AAZ strikes me as the most suitable choice for this particular gambit.
Such fickle enthusiasm leads to rapid selling when momentum stalls and/or the newsflow goes a bit sour.
So, while I accept I may well miss out to extent I've reduced my holding, it remains the case that if there is a substantial 'correction' to the POG [let alone something worse] that the AAZ price may well dive some way below that 15p mark.

Guess, at root, although I really like what I see with AAZ as a company, I'm not as convinced of the Bull case for Gold when its price advances far above the level that attracts heavy duty physical buying - mostly out of Asia.

[cyberbub] 11/10/2016 15:40

Nice delayed 50k buy there at 19.90...