Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 24/9/2015 01:12

Tuesdays volume was the 4th highest daily volume since the company listed 10 years ago at 2.5m. over 90% of that were buys so, lets say Bashirov dropped 2m into the market on the day.

17 Oct 2013: He went from 18m to 12.7m
(Suggests to me that he started a long, long time before Oct 2013.. more like 12 months previous to that when the share price was in the 40-50p zone)

08 Jul 2015: He went from 11.5m to 4.5m (sales from 10 April to 8 Jul)

Between 8 Jul and 22 Sept the volume was such that it looks like he dropped another 1m into the market (ignoring the small PI trades).

Cantor are the MM that have been glued on the Offer here since the 40p region back in 2012. They are the MM that has his SELL instruction.

I believe he's down to his last 1.5m shares now, possibly a bit less.
The trading action suggests Cantor are willing to accept 5p for the stock - only £75k worth of overhang left to go.
That is now in the ballpark where one PI could take the lot, albeit Cantor will probably want to eek that out in 100k-200k tranches to maximise their transaction fees on the deal.
Given the results information now published and the growing realisation that the share price is down at this crazy level simply as a consequence of Bashirov selling and not that the company is going bust ... I believe he'll be cleaned out of these remaining shares within the next 2-3 weeks max.

There has not been A N other entity or, one other MM that has taken them off him .. it has been virtually exclusively PI's that have taken the stock so, it will be interesting to see what sort of liquidity and trading levels return after the rest of the stock has been taken up in the market. I imagine there will be some short-term traders that are on this now, scenting a overhang clearing for quick gain but, most PI's tend to hang on to shares for far longer periods & there looks to be no shortage of good reasons to do just that.

[brasso3] 23/9/2015 22:23

Looking at the volume since Bashirovs declaration there is no way he can be finished yet. I expect there is still 1m shares to shift. The Q3 numbers will hopefully generate the last bit of volume needed to clear him out.

[cordwainer] 23/9/2015 22:21

i guess we're still under the radar then. skimming the ground at low altitude. as well as digging, crushing, sieving, flotation-ing the ground etc.

[cyberbub] 23/9/2015 21:51

The borrowings here are still fairly high, so the EV is of course a lot more than the market cap. The key point is that the company seems to have managed to turn itself around and is now paying off its debts. In theory every $1M paid off its debt should be $1M more onto the market cap... so if the company pays off another say $8M in the coming months then the market cap should double... of course Mr Market at some point will start looking 'forward' to all of the debt being cleared... which could 6-bag the share price .. irrespective of increasing production, (hopefully) increasing gold price etc...Naturally there are still plenty of risks...!NAI

[hedgehog33] 23/9/2015 19:49

Mattjos... is it possible to include the daily and long term price charts at the head your new thread as per Sat69 did. Might not be a big deal to most, though I found them really helpful.

If you can great, if not, no worries.

Rgds.. HH

[jbe81] 23/9/2015 18:52

Bashirov might have less than a million shares left, hopefully will be long gone by q3 results. Doubt we will get a holdings runs for crossing 3per cent. Any institutions buying in will make a massive difference. Once he is gone should be a significant rise and a good finish to the year.

[brasso3] 23/9/2015 18:14

Matt

I was not referring to your title. I was talking about the RNS and presentation.

[mattjos] 23/9/2015 18:11

Brasso .. The name of this new thread is not my own invention. If you have not already, suggest you click on the button I have put in the header and read the 2005 IPO Documentation

[brasso3] 23/9/2015 17:56

I don't recall them mentioning it before in RNS etc.

Depressing to see the share price still at 5p after yesterdays news but this is typical with overhangs. You have to hold and wait for the seller to finish. Once he does finish and the MMs have stocked up it will rise very fast.

[jbravo2] 23/9/2015 17:47

It sure is out of favour yogi and the fact we are more out of favour than ANY other company in the sector is laughable. It does however give us all an excellent opportunity.
Brasso the aim of a mid tier producer in Caucasia is years old.

[brasso3] 23/9/2015 17:27

That presentation really gives an indication of the scale of the operation AAZ are running. Its massive for a company capped at £5m. Our market cap barely covers the CAPEX of the new floatation plant!

I do not recall AAZ ever mentioning 'Caucasia' before so what is in the pipeline outside of Azerbaijan?

[mattjos] 23/9/2015 17:03

Braso .. it is in the Header already

[yorgi] 23/9/2015 17:01

That all makes perfect sense Jbravo and as ever timing and patience is the key. The mining sector remains out of favour which undoubtably plays a large part but that will change but predicting when is the difficult one.

[brasso3] 23/9/2015 16:59

Matt

The presentation from yesterday should go in the header IMO.

[mattjos] 23/9/2015 16:24

Cantor must be coining it in on transaction fees .. selling out Basher in piddling little bits and pieces like this. If they font-ran the transaction (as if they would of course!!!) they'll know when the stock is running low and will have to close their shorts ahead of when they've sold the lot

[yorgi] 23/9/2015 15:55

I'm sure not Cordwainer and I would think the wider weakness in the sector as a whole is not helping but it does seem quite extraordinary considering what we learnt from yesterdays results.

[cordwainer] 23/9/2015 15:43

I'm in a state of 'new thread shock' :-(( ! But we can't stay "seriously undervalued" forever I suppose.

[mattjos] 23/9/2015 15:41

Thnx Yorgi .. I'll keep developing the header over next couple of weeks but, my emphasis will very much be on providing links and data for Investors as opposed to Traders.

[yorgi] 23/9/2015 15:11

Thank you Mattjos I had not noticed, well done in setting up the new thread.

I just posted on the old thread :

A good interview with Bill Morgan explaining how AAZ have turned things around including the costs considerably.

I think the market is not reflecting this turnaround in it's reaction to yesterdays results. The wider weak market in this sector is not helping I'm quite sure.

[captain_crash_and_burn] 23/9/2015 15:08

Well, this is just ridiculous!

[mattjos] 23/9/2015 15:07

Yorgi .. we've moved to new thread

[yorgi] 23/9/2015 15:07

A good interview with Bill Morgan explaining how AAZ have turned things around including the costs considerably.

I think the market is not reflecting this turnaround in it's reaction to yesterdays results. The wider weak market in this sector is not helping I'm quite sure.

[slavy] 23/9/2015 12:57

New presentation slides available on the AAZ website:


Perhaps some good info for the new thread