Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[muffster] 17/7/2018 10:37

Sorry MRF. I've now lost respect for you. Pointless drivel you've just written. Adds nothing of value. Just musings.

[my retirement fund] 17/7/2018 10:33

Dream on Matjos. Wheres the liquidity? Where are the investors? This is never going to be fully valued here. Its never gonna happen!

[bumpa33] 17/7/2018 10:31

the stock is (relatively) illiquid but patience, just a little patience is all that is required...

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 10:28

SP Angle increase target price this am from 72p to 77p :-) :

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 50p, Mkt Cap £57m – Operationally on course for 78-84koz GEO target; nearly debt free financially
BUY – 77p (up from 72p)
• Gedabek processing facilities produced 19.0koz GEO last quarter marking a 4%qoq and 19%yoy increase (Q1/18: 18.3koz: Q2/17: 16.0koz).
• Gold production totalled 16.8koz including 15.5koz in gold dore and 1.2koz in flotation concentrate (Q1/18: 16.5koz 15.7/0.7koz; Q2:17 12.1koz 9.1/3.0koz).
• Copper production amounted to 0.3kt including 0.2kt in the form of flotation concentrate and 0.1kt in SART concentrate (Q1/18: 0.3kt 0.14/0.11kt; Q2/17: 0.7kt 0.5/0.2kt).
• This brings H1/18 gold and GEO production to 33.3koz and 37.3koz, respectively, with the management reiterating annual production guidance of 78-84koz GEO.
• Quarterly gold sales (ex government share under the PSA) totalled 10.8koz at an average price of $1,307/oz (Q1/18: 15.0 at $1,328/oz; Q2/17: 7.4koz at $1,258/oz).
• Concentrate shipments (ex government share under the PSA) amounted to 1.7kt (dry) with sales proceeds of $4.2m (Q118: 0.6kt and $1.7m; Q2/17: 3.2kt and $6.1m).
• New crushing line has been commissioned and is currently in operation allowing the Gedabek plant to run both agitation leaching and flotation circuits in parallel.
• Net debt has been further reduced to $2.9m as of H1/18 down from $18.3m as of the start of the year and $10.4m as of Q1/18.
• Cash balance stood at $12.5m as of Q2/18.
Conclusion: Good quarter production update reflecting robust production and strong free cash flow generation translating into a continuing reduction in net debt position. Production numbers came broadly in line with our estimates for 16.2koz total gold and 0.4kt copper; although, financially operations outperformed with closing net debt balance of $2.9m versus $7.6m on our numbers. The latter is attributed to stronger concentrate sales which accounted for c.$1.5m and potentially from lower operating costs than we assumed. The Company has recently signed new concentrate offtake agreement offering better terms for payable metal in flotation and SART products.
Installed second crusher is now online providing the plant with a dedicated crushing/milling line for processing of rich in copper Gedabek ores while the blend of higher grade Gadir and much softer and easily leached Ugur ores is treated through the tank leaching process. As such copper production is expected to pick up in H2/18 allowing the Company to comfortably meet its annual production guidance of 78-84koz GEO (83koz GEO on our estimates).
A lot to look forward to in H2/18 including an announcement of the dividend policy, mineral resource/reserve update, start of the airborne geophysics study covering the whole Gedabek contract area aiming to identify follow up targets as well as ramp up of exploration works at Ordubad.
(Dec year end) 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E
Gold price US$/oz 1,253 1,261 1,306 1,325 1,350
Copper price $/t 4,872 6,196 6,902 7,500 7,500
Gold production koz 65.4 59.6 69.0 72.0 70.5
Copper production kt 1.9 2.0 2.3 3.9 3.9
GE production koz 75.2 71.6 82.8 95.3 93.4
AISC (incl PSA, reported) US$/oz 616 604 575 595 697
Revenue US$m 79.2 71.8 90.6 103.7 103.8
EBITDA US$m 33.7 32.0 37.0 37.5 32.8
PAT US$m 4.0 2.5 6.2 4.3 5.0
FCF US$m 14.6 16.3 23.3 16.4 22.6
EV/EBITDA x 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.6
PER x 5.5 13.9 11.9 17.0 14.6
Net Debt US$m 34.6 18.1 -5.2 -21.6 -44.2
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 10:26

production chart updated in thread header

[lefrene] 17/7/2018 10:25

As time passes significant cash will start to pile up, exploration would seem likely to reveal extended resources if those old Soviet records are true, and that will surely get the interest of mining majors. All the work done, a money machine sat on a pile of resource, a must have for an acquisitive major operator. The take out price would be multiples from here.

[mad foetus] 17/7/2018 10:22

I think market cap is also a handicap. Getting from £50m to £100m will be much harder than from £100m to £200m. The dividend will be the key thing and my feeling is that it may be higher than the mooted 2p. Then we could see fireworks, but we probably also need a full resources update.

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 10:19

don't agree retirement fund ... give it a while for the dividend news to percolate. The market is a crowded place & not always easy to get heard in, particularly when many decision makers away on holiday

[my retirement fund] 17/7/2018 10:13

This stock is still highly illiquid. There are clearly some serious issues here. IMO if the company cannot manage to find a large and stable investor base in London supported by some decent brokers it really needs to quit its listing and move to a more dynamic market elsewhere. Prehaps Frankfurt or somewhere similar?

[lefrene] 17/7/2018 10:11

mad foetus, we still don't know if PWC have fully cleared out any that Beaufort's were holding. Selling such obvious value down at these prices seems at odds with common sense, unless you want cash for other purposes regardless of the value here.

[mad foetus] 17/7/2018 10:04

Feels to me like there is still a seller around, which is incomprehensible. Perhaps we need an updated jorc to leave these levels behind.

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 09:59

Those with Accounts at Interactive Investors should have received their notification of Ordinary General Meeting today.
This enables you to Vote with regards the cancellation of the Share Premium Account to enable payment of the dividend

To do so:

Login
Got to Portfolio tab
Under the 'Tools' column, select VOTING MAILBOX & there will be entries there for you to select
From this point, it is a two click process .,.. make sure you do the Final Submission click

[lefrene] 17/7/2018 09:46

By just about any measure this is the cheapest stock on the market, and even more so given the quality and track record of the managers.

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 09:45

Gapped up this morning .. I don't like gaps ( as you all know :-) )

[bumpa33] 17/7/2018 09:44

Just a classic mm move, run it up fast, pull in a few sellers, slowly drop it back - seen it all before.

[odsjp] 17/7/2018 09:40

2p dividend will cost around $3M.

With free cash flow of $7.5M a quarter then there is plenty of scope for higher dividends. This share does look cheap!!!

[lefrene] 17/7/2018 09:38

MM's shake?

[gutterhead] 17/7/2018 09:37

MM's are going to have a field day with weak holders today

[jbravo2] 17/7/2018 09:35

Thanks matt.

So on avg 21%.

That would lead to year end of 82.5koz GEO all things being equal.

However we now have two main treatment streams available concurrently for the first time ever...

Lovely.

We'll end the year with a +20m cash/debt position.
Ha ha ha, no one will be able to buy for 50p then. But then it won't be £1 coins they'll be buying either.

[bumpa33] 17/7/2018 09:34

(Very) conservatively on a PE of 2 is just ridiculous?

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 09:33

With the new crusher now operational, it will be interesting to see how we go in Q's 3 & 4 this year but, I would expect a noticeable uptick in the figures this year

[bumpa33] 17/7/2018 09:32

mm’s trying to draw out a few sellers - if we don’t see the 60’s in short order though I’ll eat my hat, so to speak :)

[mattjos] 17/7/2018 09:24

bravo .. one thing I keep a running check on is the rolling average of Quarterly production averages. Updated as of today's figures & based on data in the graph, we have the following:

____________________Ave. Q1___ Ave. Q2___ Ave Q3___ Ave. Q4___ Total Ave.
Gold Produced (oz).. 13,138.... 15,327.... 17,110....17,345..... 62,920
Silver Produced (oz) 23,210..... 27,999.... 20,859....25,143..... 97,211
Copper Produced (t) ..285......... 352....... 315...... 262....... 1,213


If we look at the data and pick out the best reported Quarterly figures & then see what a 'best' year might look like, we get:

___________________Best Q1___Best Q2___Best Q3___ Best Q4___ Total of Best Q's
Gold Produced (oz) 17,193....19,665....20,242.....21,931.......79.031
Silver Produced (oz) 39,369...56,440...40,288......50,216.....186,313
Copper Produced (t) 606......... 716......550........578........2,450