Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[robo21] 03/4/2018 13:30

I imagine I am in the minority but I would rather we found another
Prospect to diversify and add to production !!!

[2sporrans] 03/4/2018 13:21

"I'm pretty sure gold is going to hold between 1200-1400 but its hardly an exciting prediction... this 1700, 1900 stuff that keeps going round."

Pretty much my expectation too jb.
Since July 2017, the POG has exhibited a remarkably close inverse correlation with the strength of the $US.
The $ has traded sideways since ~15th Jan 18; likewise the POG, between ~$1,320<>1,355/oz.
I think it was Monday....when the POG kicked up 1.5% while the $ was static [up 0.1% v basket of currencies]. Great, but pretty much a 1 off.
Still, as that POG lift seemed to be mostly driven by Trade War concerns, we may see more days like it; i.e. POG rises irrespective of $.
One thing the Chump has been unwaverlingly consistent about [going back many years]has been redressing unfair/dishonest practices by other nations [esp. China] and he seems prepared to fully employ the Tariff stick to this end.
The Chinese may placate him with a big bunch of carrots but grounds for such an optimistic turn of events are decidedly shakey, looking at the Trump team now. Pretty much a team of 1 + assorted attack dogs.

Anyways, yes, looks like the Q1 POG for AAZ's sales will av. out a tad above $1,320/oz; roughly $50/oz better than Q4.
And like Q4, the Q1 output will be pretty much gold, laced with silver with a small copper output [Flot. plant on hold pending new crusher] AND as predominantly Ugur feed, the AISC should remain low, ~$600/oz.
So, even if Gold production is say an awfully disappointing 15k-oz for Q1, ought to still be ~$11-mn earnings; so revenue way more than required to cover debt repayments+CAPEX+depreciation+tax+Azeri-10%-of-gold-prod. on top of operational costs.

While the AISC stays as low as it has - may even come in lower than last $560/oz figure - 2018 looks to be a bumper year for AAZ net cashflow and profit.
I doubt this is fully priced in.
Maybe a good Q1 prod. result won't change perceptions much but surely when the retro 2017 full year results come out, they will. Especially if AAZ's figures make it reasonably transparent what the AISC was for Q4.

For me, the most imminent fly in the elixir going forward, during H2 2018, will be rising AISC as production switches from Ugur [where very cheap op. costs are likely to creep up over time] to underground [Gadir] and main pit copper + bit of low grade gold fed into Flot.->SART.
But this won't become transparent until at least Q3 prod. results; AISC prob. a lot later.
In any event, AAZ should still be generating good margin/profit/net c/f.
By Q3 results, hopefully, AAZ will have been re-rated up in line with greatly improved P/E forecasts.

[lefrene] 03/4/2018 13:15

I have been looking at Polyus that is forecasting an annual production of 2 million ounces of gold, it is located in Siberia in Putin's fiefdom, all sites bar one are only accessible by air. They have substantial debt of $3 billion and enjoy a current market cap of $10.39 billion! (£7.42bn)on a pe of 8.1

An interesting comparison to AAZ forecast to produce 80,000 ounces on a market cap of £44 million. A direct comparison based on production levels would see AAZ worth £300 million or approx 240p a share, and that is without added value for soon being debt free.

[bleepy] 03/4/2018 13:13

Excellent news and paves the way for a divi.

Reza has to be commended for fronting the loan at a time when most company’s would have chosen dilution.

[malcolmmm] 03/4/2018 12:57

I was reading what a Gold expert was saying on investing.com perhaps go and moderate him. If the markets do crash Gold usually surges as its perceived aa a safe haven.

[lefrene] 03/4/2018 12:52

Just deleted because of howler of an error

[mattjos] 03/4/2018 12:45

modest p/e of 7 would see us over a £1 I believe ... if a dividend stream was forthcoming that should give support to that price into the future.

[lefrene] 03/4/2018 12:35

I agree, the early repayment of the loan is very positive, and might well presage a maiden divi. This company just goes from strength to strength, perhaps one day the price might catch up with the actuality, even a modest pe of 7 would make a heck of a difference here.

[mattjos] 03/4/2018 12:19

good news in more way than one.
Healthy cashflow &, I do not believe the BOD would have voted through a dividend payment all the time Reza's loan was on the books.
Now it is gone, a vote on payment of dividend should be more clear-cut
(Plus of course Reza was likely to want to replace 7% x $3.9m = $273,000 interest with a dividend instead. Reza's holding is 32,796,830 shares
32,796,830 * 1.4c / share dividend = $459,000 as a divi)

[djj2014] 03/4/2018 12:07

Pay not say!

[djj2014] 03/4/2018 12:07

Must be generating some healthy cash to be able to say off Reza's loan. Good news.

[jbravo2] 03/4/2018 11:52

Malcolmmmm does post on both threads I think he may have just got a bit mixed up but his talk of 1700 gold is all just more guff from the "gold going to the moon" group.
I'm pretty sure gold is going to hold between 1200-1400 but its hardly an exciting prediction... this 1700, 1900 stuff that keeps going round. Well it just keeps going round. It never seems to actually arrive.

Anyway, this quarters results will show just how much we can make in the weakest production quarter of the year with gold over 1300. It should be a very nice read.

[mattjos] 03/4/2018 10:11

got distracted this morning & by the time I tried for some , 1k was all I could get & that was on a ForK trade. Bit daft but the trade was filled and promptly moved the price.
Stock has only been offered at under 40p for 15 sessions since Jan 15th & several of those days, it has only been a fleeting event for negligible volume

[jeanesy] 03/4/2018 09:04

Decided to add a few more in anticipation of 1st quarter results !

[mad foetus] 03/4/2018 09:03

Obviously, but the overall declining volume shows that sellers are exhausted and so it won't take much buying to move it up

[jeanesy] 03/4/2018 08:13

This will only move higher if there is some decent buying ( not happening atmo ) or excellent 1st quarter production figures ( hopefully a couple of weeks away !)

[mad foetus] 03/4/2018 08:03

The chart is making a pretty clear 3 month wedge on declining volumes. Should see a breakout soon to new multi year highs imo.

[yasx] 02/4/2018 21:54

Gold on a tear right now...I have significant exposure in my portfolio to gold and silver plays.

[yasx] 02/4/2018 21:54

Mattjos2 Apr '18 - 20:22 - 12289 of 12290
If it takes, on average, a 5% cut in USA rates (peak to trough) to slay a recession but, the current ‘recovery̵7; is wobbling at under 2%... wtf is going to happen next time?

----------------------

Put simply, the FED, ECB and the other central banks will embark upon more QE but this time on a scale that dwarfs the previous efforts. It will merely lead to more silly asset bubbles, but they can only delay the inevitable. The USA and European economies are essentially insolvent, and, at some point, there will be no buyers of the treasuries. How long before this unravels I know not, but happen it will.

I blame the people not the politicians. You see, even the dim ought to have seen which way this was likely to end up, and yet, they merely carried on with a blithe disregard for the meteoric thud that will no doubt impact them in due course. Then they will turn to the streets, but, too little too late...

[mattjos] 02/4/2018 20:22

Interest rates not even back to 2% yet .. already the fissures are opening.Auto sales data, specifically the debt dynamics of the market, look truly terrible .. don't go buy a new car just now, unless you absolutely have to. They will be significantly cheaper any time from now to next 3-5 years out., imo.Student debt is another ticking time bomb ... will take longer before this blows up but, it certainly will do.If it takes, on average, a 5% cut in USA rates (peak to trough) to slay a recession but, the current 'recovery' is wobbling at under 2%... wtf is going to happen next time?Everyone man and his dog is blaming Russia for most everything ... have you looked at the national & Personal debt levels in Russia? They look one of the strongest economies in the world .. if you consider debt as the toxin. What a mess

[bumpa33] 02/4/2018 19:04

Markets starting the quarter with a real thumping - S&P looks to be finally losing the battle for the 200 DMA, currently 30 points off this level. Gold up at 1345 at the mo....

[jeanesy] 02/4/2018 18:18

There were some sizeable sells last week which is why we fell. Really surprised to see this fall back below 40p . Perhaps some realised some gains before the end of the ISA season. Not long to wait until the production figures for 1st quarter which we all hope and expect to be good. Perhaps some will wait until the new ISA season to buy, but they may be more expensive by then !

[puntogt] 02/4/2018 17:47

Bigger gold rally coming ?
hxxps://youtu.be/3aJEKJVXk5E