Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 02/1/2017 13:49

Happy New Year to all here.

Would strongly suggest any readers of this thread take the time to read Chipperford's thread called, "Gold: small/mid-cap Stock Comparisons" (ADVFN ticker is CHIP)

In the header of his thread there are two tables, the most recent one is entitled "VALUE Composite Table of PM Producers. TOTAL = relative valuation.

If you look at AAZ, it scores as follows:

Price to Earnings: 23 *
Price to Book (Net Assets): 4
Price to Sales: 1
Ev/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to Earnings before Int, Tax, Depn & Amort: 3
Price to Cash Flow: 1

TOTAL: 32

* This is obviously based on historical data from last year figures. Will change dramatically lower when FY16 figures are released.

Price to Sales and Price to Cashflow values look plain ridiculous at this level.

As a 'benchmark' Chip has indicated the values for the S&P 500 average.
S&P Ave. Price to Sales is 7
S&P Ave. Price to Cashflow is 28

Agreed, AAZ will struggle to achieve that sort of valuation but, if you look at the likes of Shanta & Orosur & any other comparison miner you can think of, Chip's table really rams it home just how lowly rated AAZ still is, despite the rise from 5p to 20p over the course of the last 12-13 months

[deanroberthunt] 01/1/2017 21:33

and this one;

[deanroberthunt] 01/1/2017 21:30

all PMers should watch this;

[mattjos] 31/12/2016 19:23

No idea who this Larry is but, looks a load of cobblers to me & nothing more than a poorly informed, poorly worded & poorly reasoned advert for some sort of gibberish trading program that he is selling.Safe to ignore it.

[edjge2] 31/12/2016 18:09

zhockey Bit more I'm afraid and unusual bulletin timing. Confirms some junk above


Looks like a rising wedge on chart

[zhockey] 30/12/2016 22:45

Gosh, what a lot of New Year joy on here!

[edjge2] 30/12/2016 21:15

Underground site here with some news, political, natural, socioeconomic

Google attempts to filter and Mike has back up site out of USA in case of shutdown

[jeanesy] 30/12/2016 19:20

Thanks, not sure why they are so different. Looks like POG is already heading below 1150 again !

[mattjos] 30/12/2016 13:20

Also check ADVFN for USDAZN

[jeanesy] 30/12/2016 12:39

Not sure where you get your info from Mattjos . I make it 1.80 today hxxp://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=AZN

[mattjos] 30/12/2016 11:56

USDAZN now 1.77

[pixi] 30/12/2016 08:53

Obama's last gasp as president.

edge, I think your disaster scenario is spot on and should kick in later after the crash.

[edjge2] 29/12/2016 22:21

Today
BREAKING NEWS: The US Has Expelled 35 RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS, Closed 2 Russian Embassies, As OBAMA Places Sanctions On Russia!

Add actual war to the above, if not this lot then elsewhere coming.

[edjge2] 29/12/2016 22:15

Classic Head and shoulders (H&S) around Nov 16 on the long term chart above.

[pixi] 29/12/2016 19:56

Government whistle blowers are working on it. They intend to stop the manipulation of gold and silver. Good luck to them with that because all powerful, arrogant central bankers can do what they like, with impunity. When it all goes wrong they will simply say they didn't mean to put millions of people on the dole and out of their homes. They know what they need to do to the fix the problem, but they fear not getting re-elected afterwards. So they will do nothing and will just keep taking their salaries until everything stops working.

Meanwhile, the $ is at a 14-year high and as it backs off a little to catch it's breath, the price of gold naturally goes up. The $ could be girding it's loins for a thrust upwards to a higher high and give the market a boost to get through 20 K before rolling over and trapping the greedy money left in to take the fall. The smart money got out near the top. When the markets go into free-fall, without a parachute, gold and silver will take off as people dive back to PM's for safety. Shortly afterwards, followed by an almighty bang as the economy hits the buffers, the afterburners kick in on demand as more and more people want gold and the prices take off to the moon. That's how stupid everything is because we refuse to learn from our mistakes. It doesn't matter who you vote for, you are going to get wiped out if you are not in gold and silver.

[zhockey] 29/12/2016 19:40

I wouldn't hold your breath but it would be nice!

[el_duderino_7885] 29/12/2016 18:35

Zhockey the gold market is not leading the Yen! You are talking about one of the worlds largest currency's.

Why do people find this difficult to comprehend? The price of gold right now has nothing to do with demand for physical gold. It has everything to do with demand and supply of the paper derivative we choose to call "gold".

What determines the demand and supply of the derivative is mainly the dollar/yen and also bond yields (to a lesser degree).

The algorithms that buy gold are programmed to buy gold if the dollar/yen falls (weak dollar/strong yen) and sell gold if the dollar/yen rises.

Since Trump won the dollar/yen has rises almost 20% from 100 that night to 118 and now falling to 116. A rise of almost 20%. At the same time the price of gold has dropped almost 20%. Magic!!

Has global demand for gold fallen 20% or supply increased in this time? Of course not!!

If we want to know where gold is going on here we need to understand this and realise that the next big move in the dollar/yen will define the next move in gold. Period. It really is this simple.

It doesn't make any sense but this is how the paper market currently works and has done for over three years.

I have no idea when this relationship will be broken but for now the paper markets are firmly in control.

Hopefully we'll start to see some law suits coming out of the recent price fixing revelations in the gold market. The evidence Deutshche bank have given should lead to many many more law suits and perhaps some fundamental price discovery in the gold market at long last.

[zhockey] 29/12/2016 18:14

I think the Dollar Yen is following gold, or at least Gold and the Yen priced in usd are peers. Gold and the Yen are the only safe haven currencies outside of teh dollar so it is no surprise they move together.

[el_duderino_7885] 29/12/2016 18:10

The price of gold continues to follow bond yields and even more importantly the dollar yen. It really is astonishing just how close the two are correlated now. Gold is literally following the dollar yen inverse tick for tick, over three years the two have been paired now.
Fx is now determining the price of gold and nothing else matters at the moment. Forget all fundamentals, completely irrelevant.
Dollar yen down to 116 from recent highs of 118, hence the recent surge in the price of gold.
If you want to see gold back up around $1300 plus we need the dollar yen to head back towards 100.
Personally I think a dollar this strong will weigh heavily on the US and world economy so we should see it moving back down and therefore gold up. Especially when 3 rate hikes don't transpire this year.
Guys it really is this simple, until the hedge fund driven paper markets are broken by physical demand nothing else matters fundamentals be damned.

[zhockey] 29/12/2016 17:28

Matt,

My question was about EWT and Gold. As you know I'm a skeptic and wondered where you had gone wrong in the earlier interpretation? If I had a model that is proven wrong I want to learn from it.

I am not looking to buy any more AAZ and would very much like the price to go up :)

[jeanesy] 29/12/2016 16:42

Lets hope that POG keeps strong now it has broken back above 1150. Manat now at 1.79 which will also be helping costs. Hedging is due to run out in a couple of days so we need a strong POG. Weather still cold but not as cold in the region.Bigger trades today were sells .. probably people banking some of that profit they made from the start of the year ? Still it helps with liquidity here.

[jbe81] 29/12/2016 16:34

Good day for gold and silver, should be much more to come here early Jan.

[edjge2] 29/12/2016 16:27

Upside down it for double top. Might be inverted head and shoulders for gold.
Just got an email from larry at 'money and markets' cautioning too much exuberance here, sees move early 17. Look for 'gold hogwash' therte, was not present earlier.
JNUG strongly up with yanks and 1150 gold looks broken over there.

[deanroberthunt] 29/12/2016 11:26

some peeps call this a double bottom, but it's more of a W Formation.