Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jbravo2] 12/9/2016 08:47

@cyber
The early drop was much more to do with the MM's finally abandoning the 15.75 buy price that had been listed for days. It hadn't been that price for days and you've been able to buy at 15.08p for most of the last week. A crafty move that made the news appear bad and no doubt try to encourage a few sellers out.
Seems like it didn't work and it's a more realistic spread now.
I remain a buyer... Who wouldn't at these prices?
And it is only going to keep getting better from here :)

[cyberbub] 12/9/2016 08:17

Operating cash flow $16.9M for the half!

[cyberbub] 12/9/2016 08:16

Hard to understand the drop, T traders being panicked out? Volume is low though.

[jbe81] 12/9/2016 07:59

Great numbers, reduction in production forecast provides a good buying opportunity. Second half should be very good indeed

[wimbled] 12/9/2016 07:56

yes very positive. Forecast now is last year's production figure. Much more realistic

[csmwssk12hu] 12/9/2016 07:54

in profit for first half which is usually worst can't wait to see full year profit!

[cyberbub] 12/9/2016 07:52

These seem like really good results.Yes there is a slight drop in gold forecast, but the silver and copper are largely making up for it.And the debt is being paid down rapidly, could it be gone within 18 months? Every mill taken off the debt should theoretically move onto the market cap.Progress is being made...

[jim digriz] 12/9/2016 07:46

Although it’s a pity about the slight drop in production, it’s good to see net debt starting to go down fast:

30 June 2016 – Net debt: $40.7m (12 September 2016 announcement)
31 March 2016 – Net debt: $47.5m (13 April 2016 announcement)
31 December 2015 – Net debt: $49.2m (11 January 2016 announcement)
30 June 2015 - Bet debt: $48.7m (22 September 2015 announcement)
31 March 2015 - Net debt: $50.7m (14 April 2015 announcement)
27 February 2015 - Net debt: $50.4m (9 March 2015 announcement)
31 December 2014 - Net debt: $52.4m (14 January 2015 announcement)
30 September 2014 - Net debt: $49.9m (15 October 2014 announcement)
30 June 2014 - Net debt: $46.1m (23 September 2014 announcement)
31 December 2013 - Net debt: $45.5m (28 May 2014 announcement)
30 June 2013 - Net debt $46.4m (26 September 2013 announcement)
31 December 2012 - Net debt: $28.3m (28 May 2013 announcement)
30 June 2012 - Net debt $11.9m (27 September 2012 announcement)
31 December 2011 - Net debt $3.2m (23 May 2012 announcement)
30 June 2011 - Net debt $16.6m (from 27 September 2012 announcement)
31 December 2010 - Net debt $25.5m (from 23 May 2012 announcement)

Cost of agitation leach plant (which created much of the debt in the first place): c. $45m (June 2013 announcement)

DYOR

Jim

[celeritas] 12/9/2016 07:40

All decent apart from lowering of gold production. Would have been nice to hit or beat them.

[jbravo2] 12/9/2016 07:35

Wow. Quite a set of interim results.
I postulated cash costs could reach 550/oz a while ago. I didn't think they'd beat it by the interim results though. Impressive. Very impressive, with the better half of the year yet to come.
The reduction in production forecast seemed inevitable but the production guide is nice and narrow now at least.
The costs for next year with the electricity and water plants on top could be lovely reading!

Plenty to read still. A good update. Financials all improving very quickly.

[someuwin] 12/9/2016 07:22

Good numbers.

[cyberbub] 10/9/2016 10:40

Yes the buys at 15.00p and 15.05p yesterday substantially outweighed the sells below 15p.Of course there may be a delayed sell in the system somewhere.

[brasso3] 10/9/2016 01:52

If buys are below mid price then there must be sells in the system even lower. Not surprising it has ticked down on that information. Nothing will change until we get those production numbers in 6 or 7 days. For AAZ a gold price of $1325 is good enough so the only reason the share price is down is because of those July figures.

[jeanesy] 09/9/2016 18:59

Well we should get the production figures for August next week. I must admit that i am now a tad nervous . There has been no bounce in the shareprice here. Someone has said that there have been no buys- i think you will find that there has. All buys today are below mid and have been for days. Buys have been outweighing sells and yet we have moved down. The market is not normally wrong in its movements.. lets hope that in this case that they ! Past history cannot be repeated here as the market will be unforgiving. Lets hope for solid production figures next week and promising interim results the week after!

[cyberbub] 09/9/2016 16:24

Real spread is 14.5 - 15.0

[csmwssk12hu] 09/9/2016 14:53

Well at least it's moved!

[2sporrans] 09/9/2016 11:59

Additional to HG's comments on OMI:
Orosur has 2 basic gold resources in production; both near its mill in Uruguay:
1. Underground in Arenal + San Gregorio Deep which produce at ~$750-850/oz operating cost.
2. Various open pits, mostly within 100km of the mill, none of which have consistently produced at under $1,000/oz operating cost; more like $1,100/oz for the lower cost ones $1,200/oz+ for the dearer.

The past year of ~35k production has been a blend of 1 and 2 above but around 70-80% came out of the underground mines. bit vague as SG was in development/pre-stope production phases.
This blend and limited production [OMI historically produced a lot more, usually ~70k pa] enabled OMI to end up with an AISC of under $1,000/oz in H2 of last year [to end May].
Orosur hasn't got a lot of good grade gold and Arenal is virtually exhausted, though can be developed for extension and SG has maybe 1+1/2 years of production at 20-30kpa....depending largely on the grades.
There's plenty of open pit resource that OMI keeps turning up in Uruguay; a feature of the OMI saga the past 20 or so years.
Also a very promising resource [Anza] in Columbia with very high grades discovered.
Extent remains a guess though and only at exploration stage. Ditto Anillo in Chile; near El Penon mine but little unearthed there yet.

So, all in all, yes OMI is a much higher cost operation; especially so to the extent it will have to depend upon open pit production [Minimum $1,100/oz AISC] going forward.
My impression is a lot of PIs haven't taken the latter point on board.

Hence OMI is going to be highly sensitive to movements in the POG; especially so at levels in the range of the past 3 years: $1050-1400/oz.

AAZ has a shed load of debt still [~$40-mn v zero for OMI] but a lot more resource/production at much lower AISC [$700/oz?]; especially so with at least $10-mn-pa coming from copper-silver pretty much as pretty much only plant depreciation costs for SART+floation these as by-products.
Hoping that copper silver revenue will be over $12-mn for 2016; so substantially more than a virtually gold only producer like Orosur.

So, AAZ should be a lot less sensitive to POG movements, especially in $1200-$1400/oz range. [AAZ has a limited hedge on production outwith these parameters: 1/2 of 2016 output only].
The AAZ business model, including rapid debt pay down, should still work out OK at say $1200/oz POG. It's the resource base that's more critical.

Some things in OMI's relative favour though:
Low 'political' risk; Uruguay very stable.
Well managed; Salazar team regularly beat expectations.
Less complex business: No shared production/profit with Gov't.

[highly geared] 08/9/2016 19:35

OMI has essentially no debt and will produce 35,000-40,000 OZ in their fiscal year. Costs are higher , AISC around $900-1000.Personally think OMI are too cheap but I'd wait for 2017 Q1 results first (end of September) and watch POG.

[homebrewruss] 08/9/2016 19:05

Thanks brasso. Looks like a great comparison - also seems pretty undervalued on first glance

[brasso3] 08/9/2016 18:40

OMI is a good comparison.

[homebrewruss] 08/9/2016 18:36

Just thinking ahead to the end of 2017.. Can anyone share any stocks that are comparable now to how we could be then ie a well run producer with little debt..
Just want to get an idea on p/e ratios for companies in that situation.

[zhockey] 08/9/2016 10:33

Some of those other stocks were probably seeing some short covering, AAZ is so illiquid not sure you can short easily.

[timberwolf3] 08/9/2016 09:41

If i had any money i would.

[zhockey] 08/9/2016 09:33

The reason there has been no bounce is that no one is buying

[jeanesy] 07/9/2016 19:08

Would have expected some sort of bounce by now. I hope that there is not a reason why it has not happened! Mid-price is now below 15p. Manat continues to weaken which is good.