Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bleepy] 02/2/2016 14:19

Zhockey

Is it you off loading shares given your interpretation of Bill Morgan's presentations.

Given the high grade newly explored Gadir mine, ongoing exploration at Gosha and Ordubad then who knows what further exploration over the next 3yrs will reveal.
Plus the many other properties within their portfolio awaiting further exploration.

[ferries5] 02/2/2016 14:14

We will produce gold at 75k for x years
We are shifting to becoming a copper producer

I think it was a message to the banks.
More or less saying we will be able to repay any loan we get. even if gold reduces . Should hear of the 2016 work program in the April update. Hopefully things will be clearer then.

[zhockey] 02/2/2016 14:14

Bleepy, they are extracting from Gadir ore and there is not a huge resource there based on the drilling report. Hence I expect gold to drop unless they find more to extract and progress.

[zhockey] 02/2/2016 14:11

A ten year mine life plan would be nice clearly stating the production of various metals. I guess the floatation plant is still being tweaked.

[bleepy] 02/2/2016 14:05

Morgan spoke of expected targets for next 2/3 yrs stating 72k-74kozs Au or better.

I read the statement as a reassurance that the record output for 2015 can be maintained or bettered.
The reason being, the number of missed targets in the past are now behind them and production can be maintained at record level of 2015 or higher.

[on target] 02/2/2016 13:49

But he didn't say (imo) "we are shifting". I think that's the key point of difference here. You say shifting to copper, I say adding copper.
Anyway we await more information form the company to go on.

[zhockey] 02/2/2016 13:26

Indeed you could, but why say

We will produce gold at 75k for x years
We are shifting to becoming a copper producer

It is all about interpretation, try asking AAZ to confirm and put the issue to rest. But my opinion is that unless they discover more gold then gold production will not go above the 75-80k level and will taper off after 3 years as grades drop. But that is only my interpretation and you should draw your own conclusions.

[bleepy] 02/2/2016 13:24

Bill Morgan spoke of expected targets for next 2/3 yrs stating 72k-74kozs Au or better.

Expansion of flotation mills for copper,zinc,lead etc, makes commercial sense given the quantities found in the mined ore.

No mention of decrease in gold long term. Btw, the huge increase in silver recovered is another bonus to add to the copper and zinc.

[on target] 02/2/2016 13:14

You could easily interpret it as after the 2-3 years when they have paid off all the debt they can spend the money on INCREASING the gold production.

[on target] 02/2/2016 13:10

zhockey, please provide a link to the interview where they say that because I've yet to see it.
I saw one with the FD recently where he gave some estimated figures for gold production levels from Gedabek for the next 2-3 years - that's all, he did not say they could only sustain production for that length of time or anything like that.

[jbe81] 02/2/2016 13:04

zhockey did you get a reply to your email?

[zhockey] 02/2/2016 12:58

They have said they can sustain for 2 to 3 years in various interviews. A bit vague beyond that. Could go up or down, but combine this with the message on copper and I would interpret that gold prod would drift lower beyond this

[on target] 02/2/2016 12:53

Btw the above is for Gedabek only. Maybe other mines contain more copper.

[on target] 02/2/2016 12:48

"It's obvious, they have more copper resources than gold!"

The latest figures we have (afaik) are (from September 2015):

RESERVES: 682koz gold, 102kt copper
RESOURCES (measured+indicated): 1.45moz gold, 144kt copper

Seems like more in gold than copper to me - and neither going to run out any time soon.

[on target] 02/2/2016 12:32

"puzzle me is this idea that they want to transition away from being focussed on gold"

They have said they are expanding into other minerals (silver, zinc, copper) that can be produced using the same mines/plants. The aim seems to be to grow revenue and profits with less expense than finding completely new (gold) resources?. My guess would be this is because they want to pay off or at least significantly reduce the debt first. Btw there has been no indication that the present level of gold production is expected to be reduced.

[zhockey] 02/2/2016 12:03

It's obvious, they have more copper resources than gold!

[captain_crash_and_burn] 02/2/2016 11:55

So very tempted to double up, unless something is going on in the background that I am not aware of, things appear to be shaping up very well for AAZ.

Gold has strengthened and perhaps may be starting a trend
even before the manat devaluation, AAZ have said they are confident of profitability when gold is between 1000-1100
Manat now devalued
Production steaming along as per last update
No news of any production nightmares

One thing that does still puzzle me is this idea that they want to transition away from being focussed on gold, the fundamentals are now in place to be a very profitable gold producer, just stop spending, pay down the debt do enough explo to keep building JORC and then let the good times roll.

I have zero faith in AIM though and too many times a low share price has been low because beneath the surface all was not well at all.

Oh the dilema

[jbe81] 02/2/2016 10:17

Jbravo the reply was to Ontarget. Yes there appears to be a seller, although I wouldn't say they are selling at any price. Or they would be done by now and the price would have gone much lower. Think there will be plenty of buyers if it goes sub 4p. You might well be able to buy for 4p, today, tomorrow or next week. Once the seller is cleared and if gold keeps going up would expect a bounce. So think it is a good buying level rather than worrying if it will fall lower.

[zhockey] 02/2/2016 10:06

Could be a better opportunity if you wait

[jbravo2] 02/2/2016 10:03

Missing it? How?
The price is lower today than yesterday. I suspect you'd have said the same thing yesterday only today is an even better opportunity.
I suspect there will be better opportunities to come. I might be wrong, I might not, but clearly I've missed nothing so far. Most of us have a point where we'll buy more I guess. I think it wise to not dislose that personally. I guess you won't be adding as otherwise you'd have done so today in what is such a good opportunity?
I realise, and believe me I feel it too with over 1m shares, that the current price is a travesty. But only those needing to sell shortly are sweating. I guess some people do want out shortly, judging from what they post and say. It is what it is and it won't stay like it for ever, or at least I hope not because yes I don't want o be holding in 20 years time.
IMO this will be over £1 in 5 years.

[jbe81] 02/2/2016 09:37

You are missing a good opportunity to buy

[jbravo2] 02/2/2016 09:31

Nothing as far as I know.
There is a seller who appears to HAVE to sell. He sells virtually everyday, no matter what the price so far.
As a consequence there are very few buyers. Certainly I'm not buying. If he has to sell I want him to sell for as low a price as possible

[on target] 02/2/2016 09:11

Down again. What are we missing??

[brasso3] 01/2/2016 22:23

Filled the little gap on friday and then straight back on the charge today.

[jbe81] 01/2/2016 22:20

yep, good day for gold, a good couple of weeks could make a big difference here