Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 14/1/2016 11:38

The forward calculations regarding the company profitability and financial performance through FY16 and onwards are based on USDAZN 1.05

We're not at 1.57 and still rising

That is 50% devaluation of the Manat since mid-December and will have a significant impact on the business model as all their revenues are in US$ whilst the localised input costs are in AZN.

There is no way the Azerbaijan central bank can afford to get involved any longer in trying to hold up their currency by selling their foreign currency reserves and buying the Manat .. last years efforts wiped out 50% of their currency reserves.
At some point the local interest rates will have to be increased to try and halt inflation - which is absolutely going to take off (unfortunately for the country). That means the company's Manat deposit account will start to see higher interest paid to it.
The company's debt is predominantly fixed rate with some small element linked to LIBOR

The market is STILL not factoring this in at all to the valuation .. .seemingly waiting for the company to spell it out for them but, it does not take a rocket scientist to see the significant benefits to them going forward.

[mattjos] 14/1/2016 11:01

USDAZN now at 1.57 and continuing to creep up
Both EUR & USD (the main constituents of the currency basket they have floated the Manat at) remain well bid in the markets.

[cordwainer] 14/1/2016 10:34

jbe81 is taking advantage

[jbe81] 14/1/2016 10:04

Looks like somebody is taking advantage

[jbe81] 14/1/2016 09:32

Cheap shares available this morning

[bleepy] 14/1/2016 09:26

Devaluation of manat by 48%, pay down of debt including vaziri in June, benefits of new investments coming on stream (no capex) signals a possible dividend payment and rerate.

[mattjos] 14/1/2016 09:23

they do now look extremely well set for the forthcoming year. That silver production in the 4th Quarter, both from Agitation & Flotation was a huge step upwards.

Q4 silver production (Ag + Fl combined) ..... 17,710 oz

against a previous total for Q's 1 to 3 ..... 10,916 oz

Q4 silver production was actually 56.8% of the entire FY14 !

That's incredible

[philo124] 14/1/2016 09:23

Whilst the market is awaiting I've topped up by 142%.

Thanks to all informed posters and their posts.

[drdre] 14/1/2016 09:11

Very good production update and upbeat commentary but the financials are what we all want to see, I would wager. Net debt is down, the fact the loan was extended to July is a big plus. I would suspect the market is awaiting the flesh on the bone, so to speak.

[cyberbub] 14/1/2016 08:50

Me too jbe. Annoying.

[jbe81] 14/1/2016 08:45

Probably better to read it from the link

[jbe81] 14/1/2016 08:44

Cyber full RNS from the website, on my advfn only have part of it with more to follow written at the end

[mattjos] 14/1/2016 08:39

Cyber .. We still await news on the projected financial benefits to the company of the Manat devaluation

[bleepy] 14/1/2016 08:31

Significant grades processed by agitation leach plant in Q4/15 as Gadir ramps up its gold output....

-- 28,819 tonnes of ore with average gold content of 7.71 grammes per tonne from the Gadir underground mine was processed by the agitation leach plant in Q4 2015. For FY 2015, 37,880 tonnes with average gold content of 7.98 grammes per tonne was processed

[cyberbub] 14/1/2016 08:31

The RNS says 'more to follow', has the extra appeared anywhere yet?

[ferries5] 14/1/2016 07:47

More or less faultless RNS, Money is tight( to be expected with the work they have done last year) Flotation plant running 80% capacity. No mention of fund raising.
See what the market makes of it.

[mattjos] 14/1/2016 07:46

Pretty much bang on where I had hoped they would be for production!Well done everyone there. Terrific achievement over the year.Silver from flotation coming in significantly higher than I had anticipated.I very much like the wording of Reza's forward looking sentence!

[bleepy] 14/1/2016 07:22

Excellent rns...



More to follow.....

[mattjos] 13/1/2016 20:09

Markets are a horror story at present so no buyers generally .. But, watch gold go now in coming days & weeks.The rout is starting to accelerate .. What looks safe?Bonds? No Equities? NoOil? NoForex? Lottery at presentGold? I think so. Silver? YupThe Fed has really made a complete hash of things. It's raised rates just as the USA rolls over into a recession but, it won't change its mind now. It has to get rates up somehow to create some room for cutting them again, for when we see a far worse repeat of 07/08 in the coming 12 months.

[jbe81] 13/1/2016 19:31

Well put jbravo

[hedgehog33] 13/1/2016 19:08

With you on all that jb....

[jbravo2] 13/1/2016 16:58

Absolutely I am jbe! There is no chance of me leaving.
I see no reason to sell whatsoever.
I predicted the share price should be materially different in 12 months back in July. I still see no reason for that not to be the case. Having said that I would have expected for it to be higher already but our seller clearly is responsible for where we languish at the moment. Undoubtedly he is a distressed seller as I'm sure many in that part of world are at the moment.
I am patient (good job) and will wait for the large rewards. Reza's confidence (demonstrated by his money) is worth a hundred RNS's or 1000 differently timed RNS's.
This doesn't seem to be a binary bet any more. I no longer fear AAZ failing to make meaningful profits the devaluation alone has seen to that. Never mind the fact we have a shiny new plant.
We have a balance sheet that won't be ignored for much longer. The assets will soon start to be valued a little more realistically.
As I said, I can wait.