Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[callmebwana] 31/5/2019 10:58

Wan, I would not say I am sharper then you, it is just I have more time on my hands.

I remember the hype about REE,s about 11/12 years ago. All the Miners were making statements as to what REE,s were present in their mine tailings !!
The REE,s (There are 17 Elements in them I think). The largest miner of REE,s outside China is Ausi. Lyncas Corp. in Malaysia.This kind of mining causes a lot of pollution,low radio active stuff etc. That is why there is worry about Lyncas mining license renewal in September.I hope this helps you understand a bit about REE,s.

[mattjos] 31/5/2019 10:56

hysterical bravo :-) .. who was the mad pop group that burnt £1m in the 80's?

[mattjos] 31/5/2019 10:54

SPA have clearly felt some heat this last couple of weeks as I believe several have contacted them criticising their analysis.

Quicker response from them this time but, I believe their Gold price is way too conservative for (particularly H2) 2019 & all of 2020 …. I still come up with minimum £1.50 / share as current value & therefore near-term price target.

However, this analysis is still just a forward projection based solely on known historical data.
Exploration data through H2 this year will keep that target price rising & particularly as the first JORC's for Ordubad region start coming in through 2020.

I personally maintain that a £500m+ mkt cap is easily achievable by Spring 2022

[jbravo2] 31/5/2019 10:53

Gold up. Margin up.
Pound down. Divi up.

Anyone selling should stop investing and start a bonfire with their cash. They clearly have no need for it.

Just wait til we open another mine.


Right, I'm off out for a bit of golf. Have fun all.
Another day, another 240oz.

[sportbilly1976] 31/5/2019 10:50

GBP:USD dropping a bit more today, now sub 1.26 (1.258)

[mattjos] 31/5/2019 10:45

lol … I said AISC their AISC would drop further.

[bumpa33] 31/5/2019 10:43

Lot of chat once more about yield curve inversión in the US.

[someuwin] 31/5/2019 10:42

Damn - I'll have to re-do that graph now. they're down to generate even more cash!

[bumpa33] 31/5/2019 10:40

Markets got a jolt last night with this Mexico tariff stuff, would not rule out some jawboning (love that expression) later, short earlier from 2765 but will watch closely later...

[sportbilly1976] 31/5/2019 10:39

SP angel revised note out this morning...tp up 1p to 127p :)


• The Company released FY18 earlier in May showing strong growth in earnings and cash flow generation with the Board proposing 4USc final dividend which together with 3USc paid in respect of H1/18 brought total dividend payments for the year to 7USc or 10.2% dividend yield on 2018 average price of 53p.
• Earning and FCF benefited from full year contribution from the Ugur deposit supplying easy to mill and leach ore as well as good cost control while the expansion of the crushing circuit in July 2018 is expected to improve operational flexibility and allow to increase copper concentrate production this year.
• As mentioned in May/18 update, reported EBITDA came in better than expected at $49.8m (our estimate: $39.8m); however the Company also reported higher than we expected capital expenditure numbers ($18.2m v our estimate of $11.5m) that included a proportion of waste stripping and development costs that were capitalised.
• For the sake of consistency and comparability with reported financial numbers, we have adjusted our earnings estimates capitalising $10m of expenses in 2019 and 2020 that in turn increases our EBITDA but is offset by higher capital expenditure projections.
• We have prepared line-by-line comparison with our previous estimates below:
Previous Updated Change, $m
2019e 2020e 2019e 2020e 2019e 2020e
Production GE koz 85.3 86.9 85.3 86.9 - -
AISC $/oz 569 536 509 506 -60 -30
Revenues $m 95.4 99.1 95.4 99.1 - -
EBITDA $m 37.4 41.2 47.4 51.2 10.0 10.0
Tax $m -7.8 -9.2 -10.4 -11.3 -2.6 -2.1
Net CFO $m 31.5 32.8 38.9 40.6 7.4 7.8
Capex $m -11.0 -8.0 -16.0 -16.0 -5.0 -8.0
FCF(post%) $m 20.5 24.8 22.9 24.6 2.4 -0.2
Dividends $m 8.0 6.9 8.0 6.9 - -
Net Debt/(Cash) $m -18.6 -36.5 -21.0 -38.8 -2.4 -2.3
• Our changes to 2019 and 2020 estimates involve reclassifying expenses from operating costs to capital costs. Our EBITDA estimates rise by $10m to $47m and $51m, respectively on reduced operating costs. However, this would have seen a corresponding increase in expected capital expenditure of $10m for both 2019 and 2020. We understand from the company that it now expects lower underlying capital expenditure costs than we had originally forecast and we therefore only increased our capital estimates for 2019 and 2020 respectively by $5m and $8m - this to give $16m for both years. Savings in sustaining capital costs of $4m (extra $1m comes from exploration) in 2019 and $2m in 2020 bring a drop in AISC of $60/oz and $30/oz, respectively (exploration costs are not included).
• The cash tax paid increases as a result of higher earnings in both years.
• Dividends remain unchanged as the 25% of FCF policy for both years gives lower than a minimum assumed payment commitment of 6USc per annum (i.e. c.$27m in minimum annual FCF).
• Net cash position improves by $2.4m to $21.0m as a reduction in capital spend outweighs higher tax bill in 2019, with little change in 2020 as the two nearly match.
• Please refer to the pdf file for production forecasts breakdown between different process routes.
Conclusion: Our above adjustments are aimed at better aligning reported and estimated numbers. Capitalisation of a proportion of expenses raised our EBITDA estimates incurring higher tax bill, which was compensated by a downward revision in capital costs (mostly sustaining). On a net basis, the overall effect on cash flows is slightly positive with net cash position improving by $2.3m over two years.
EBITDA margins reduce slightly as flotation circuit begins to contribute more to total production while higher margin AGL contribution pulls back. Counterintuitively, AISC are coming down during the period which in turn reflects higher share of by-product revenues in total sales (32% of pre-PSA revenues in 2019 v 17% in 2018).
Gedabek operations remain highly FCF generative benefiting from low cost jurisdiction and good infrastructure that allows the team to invest in exploration, pay good dividend (5.1% DY on 92p) as well as maintain robust balance sheet should an attractive target come along.
With the latest revision having little change to forecast FCFs and a share of cash costs reclassified form operating to capital expenses, we adjusted our target EV/EBITDA multiple down to 4.0x which after applying to an average of 2019 estimated EBITDA of $47m and 2020 EBITDA of $51m and adjusting for $6.1m in net cash as of Dec/18 we arrive at our target valuation of $203m or 127p per share.
(Dec year end) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Gold price US$/oz 1,267 1,161 1,253 1,261 1,271 1,302 1,350
Copper price $/t 6,828 5,505 4,872 6,196 6,554 6,368 7,000
Gold production koz 60.3 72.0 65.4 59.6 72.8 67.1 65.7
Copper production kt 0.8 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 3.2 3.6
GE production koz 65.0 77.0 75.2 71.6 83.8 85.3 86.9
AISC (incl PSA, reported) US$/oz 1,050 858 616 604 541 509 506
Revenue US$m 68.0 78.1 79.2 71.8 90.4 95.4 99.1
EBITDA US$m 10.1 18.7 33.7 32.0 49.8 47.4 51.2
FCF US$m -6.9 3.4 14.6 16.3 27.4 22.9 24.6
EV/EBITDA x 7.7 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.7 2.5
PER x - - 5.5 13.9 4.9 10.2 8.6
DY % - - - - 10.2% 5.1% 5.1%
Net Debt US$m 52.4 49.0 34.6 18.1 -6.1 -21.0 -38.8
Prices as of 30/05/19 (92p)
Source: share price Angel, Company

[bumpa33] 31/5/2019 10:36

Really tempted by TCG but no borrow available, would mean an extended T short, bonds still indicating the stock is worthless.

[bumpa33] 31/5/2019 10:34

SPX is going to need something major to save it going into the month end...

[bumpa33] 31/5/2019 10:32

I guess RBW is moving solely on this US/China rare earths malarkey rather than being company specific? Nice trade though for any who took advantage..

[wanobi] 31/5/2019 10:27

cheers cmb, LOL, yeah, maybe if the argument to do so stacks up :-) you guys are way sharper than I which is why I value you being here so much,,, cheers Wan :-) GL, ATB :-)

[jbravo2] 31/5/2019 10:26

Ha ha imagine ol resourceful's surprise when he checks in on this share price.
He let 1m go at 7p. Like just 3 years ago.
900k in three years.
That's gotta smart.

Even some stalwarts have cashed out thinking El Dorado lies elsewhere now.
jbe, broken arrow, davidspringbank, all moved to pastures new.
I'm afraid they'll come to regret their decision too.

I know it's tempting. Believe me I really know. Probably more than anyone else posting here.
But why did we pick this in the first place?
All of those reasons still exist. In fact they've just been added to over the years.
It's strange. Something to do with emotions rather than rationality makes people cash out of winners. Bank it. Make it safe.
All perfectly understandable.
Hence why so many people do it.
Yet time and time again they are told let your biggest winners ride. Keep riding them. Not just by people on here. But by people like Warren Buffet. But their emotions win out.

Ah well.
I'm riding this. I'm riding it til value outs. And that is so far north of here it's hard to believe. I guess that's another reason they sell. They don't really believe it.
More fool them.

[callmebwana] 31/5/2019 10:24

LOL Wan, I mentioned, RBW and MKA The two Co,s involved in REE,s a couple of days ago !!
Me and Bumpa also exchanged a couple of posts about them as well. RBW has gone up quite a % by today. Would you buy a stock that has already spiked ??
ATB.

[mattjos] 31/5/2019 10:22

miti .. you been busy here this morning? Looked like your style 08:30

[wanobi] 31/5/2019 10:16

TSG back to blue for me overall,,,, saves me a job tonight :-) LOL cheers Wan

[wanobi] 31/5/2019 10:14

AAZ Bumpa I'd be amazed if today's the day someone pays 3 digits for shares, the momentum is building by the looks of it, but I think it'll need a fair amount more,,, let's see, time will tell and I'm 1000% happy to be completely wrong :-) cheers Wan

[wanobi] 31/5/2019 10:12

many thanx someuwin, that shall be my research project for this weekend;

Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW) £9m



Cheers
Wan :-)

[mad foetus] 31/5/2019 10:06

I'm always surprised there are sellers as I'm pretty certain more and more shares are in sticky hands. I'm not thinking of selling until the trajectory of the company changes. And the one thing you can't dispute is that the board have a very clear plan and a record of execution

[wanobi] 31/5/2019 10:02

TSG - weak hands gone for now, strong ones collecting up their stock :-) LOL oh what a game, cheers Wan

[mattjos] 31/5/2019 09:59

lol bravo .. for the last 3½ years the sellers have been getting it wrong here on AAZ so, proving they can be 100% relied upon to keep giving up their shares for peanuts.

[terropol] 31/5/2019 09:58

Up up and running... now we need to crack the £1 barrier and stay there for new horizons.
Let Gold shine.