Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 21/9/2017 08:31

More for me, thank you

[mattjos] 21/9/2017 08:24

Looks like they are managing to shake out some £250/p margin so far but, little else

[jim digriz] 21/9/2017 08:13

Thought I would update the ned debt table I posted in the past:

30 June 2017 – Net debt: $29m (21 September 2017 announcement)
31 December 2016 – Net debt: $35.1m (17 January 2017 announcement)
30 June 2016 - Net debt: $40.7m (12 September 2016 announcement)
31 March 2016 - Net debt: $47.5m (13 April 2016 announcement)
31 December 2015 - Net debt: $49.2m (11 January 2016 announcement)
30 June 2015 - Bet debt: $48.7m (22 September 2015 announcement)
31 March 2015 - Net debt: $50.7m (14 April 2015 announcement)
27 February 2015 - Net debt: $50.4m (9 March 2015 announcement)
31 December 2014 - Net debt: $52.4m (14 January 2015 announcement)
30 September 2014 - Net debt: $49.9m (15 October 2014 announcement)
30 June 2014 - Net debt: $46.1m (23 September 2014 announcement)
31 December 2013 - Net debt: $45.5m (28 May 2014 announcement)
30 June 2013 - Net debt $46.4m (26 September 2013 announcement)
31 December 2012 - Net debt: $28.3m (28 May 2013 announcement)
30 June 2012 - Net debt $11.9m (27 September 2012 announcement)
31 December 2011 - Net debt $3.2m (23 May 2012 announcement)
30 June 2011 - Net debt $16.6m (from 27 September 2012 announcement)
31 December 2010 - Net debt $25.5m (from 23 May 2012 announcement)

Cost of agitation leach plant (which created much of the debt in the first place): c. $45m (June 2013 announcement)

Debt going in right direction pretty quickly now, although there is still a way to go. Interest payments going down.

[cannonfodd3r] 21/9/2017 08:11

When you consider what additional work has been carried out in this period using their own equipment and getting ugur online so fast the results are fantastic.

Some will look past this but others will see the value. Ugur will also allow massive stockpiles to be built up to point where weather turns as it's so easy to get at allowing continued and sustained production through the winter when they usually struggle, couple that with high grade from underground at gedebey pit and everything is aligning nicely for solid production.

My estimate for the full year is 67,000 oz gold and 2900t copper with silver up 200%.

For 2018 I think we will see 92-95,000oz gold, similar or slightly reduced copper and an AISC close to $450.

I also expect another ugur to come up, drilling results showing that the gedebey reserve is actually deeper and spread much more laterally than previously quantified, a new AL plant built and a strategy put in place to rework the tailings. Also if investment is announced I think it's fair to say nothing will happen with azergold if capex spending is announced, be that Anglo Asian taking on azergold or vice versa.

The main thing to take on board is that there's actually a strategy in place now, so while we mined less last half we spent well. In the past there's been a lot based on luck rather than better judgement in my eyes. E.g gedir and gosha, neither paying their way which I'm sure steve westhead identified fast. Little is said about gosha so suspect that's mothballed with resources brought to gedebey for development and gedir is all but abandoned to explore under gedebey, not chasing dreams like it was.

Continued mining above ground at gedebey will provide solid throughput of copper rich ore to balance zero copper throughput from ugur and high grade brought from below as they target and work towards the real rich areas below gedebey and start horizontal drilling to add to Stephens complex 20m grid model.

So a nice period of steady growth and managed development to come basically

[jbe81] 21/9/2017 08:07

Any sellers swill get screwed by MMs this morning, but cant see there being many.

[2sporrans] 21/9/2017 08:01

I'm pleased too JB

Half the small loss you predicted; not quite token but almost.
H2 looking to be well into profit.

AISC $564/oz !!

And that's before a grain of gold out of Ugur.
So, expect the costs to reduce even further.
Q3 margins will be fat.

Finally:
"Water treatment plant became operational in August 2017"

+ Tailings dam wall raise well underway.

Debt is really as stated less $4mn of Reza's loan; ~25mn end of June; under $23mn now I guess.

Doubt the share price will rise on this though; kinda expecting a modest sell off.

[mattjos] 21/9/2017 07:59

How they have managed this, given all that has gone on and is going on, is very impressive.Much, much better than I had expected

[jbe81] 21/9/2017 07:52

AISC $564 and with gold and copper where they are , AAZ are doing Very well.

[friendzarin] 21/9/2017 07:52

Given the upheaval this year and the changes in operation that have occurred my personal view is those results are outstanding and a great credit to all involved. I agree with JB that the future looks extremely promising.

[homebrewruss] 21/9/2017 07:31

Lots to take in but great progress and amazing reduction in AISC to $564 per oz

[jbravo2] 21/9/2017 07:28

Happy with those results, I'll take that.
Better than my prediction by a small margin.
The full year results will be fabulous if all continues as it should.


Edit: I notice the trades out of hours are being delayed a little now so that they report the day after. Just to add a little opacity! Whoever it is sure gets a good deal. Always able to buy at mid price. Nice.

[cannonfodd3r] 20/9/2017 22:09

Good little video here of Bill Morgan and Steve Westhead from last September which is worth watching for the first time or revisiting

hxxps://youtu.be/BDuNv9cyPtg

[celeritas] 20/9/2017 21:59

Posters have been saying the same all year. Always want to point out when gold comes back, happened all the way through the 1200s.

[el_duderino_7885] 20/9/2017 20:51

Gold was fully expected to test $1,300.

It could still go another $20 or so lower but I don't expect much more downside from here.

Next leg up should take us to $1,400 before the end of the year.

I was hoping for a small dip here to around 30p.

[mattjos] 20/9/2017 20:01

Fgsake! It's $1,300/oz.8% above what the company was wanting to see.Copper is also 8% above the company target.Give it time for the market to digest Yellen .. possibly, one more rate rise this year .. far off the projections 6 months ago.Long term rate forecast keeps getting pegged down lower and lower and lower.The world can't cope with higher rates! The debt load is far, far too high. It's not just households that will go under .. its entire nations & UK near top of that pile!The start of the unwinding of QE is, imo, where the risks start.

[jeanesy] 20/9/2017 19:52

POG taken a bit of a hit tonight , now sub 1300.

[sportbilly1976] 20/9/2017 15:52

that and I'd prefer 125p to 64p ;)

[graylyn1] 20/9/2017 15:45

you made the breast choice then! lol

[sportbilly1976] 20/9/2017 15:17

lol - I know which I'd choose out of those and a cup/handle :)

[catsick] 20/9/2017 14:57

More importantly we have to get to 125 pretty quickly to complete the much longer term large pair of breasts formation ( look at the 12 yr chart for that one )

[jailbird] 20/9/2017 14:42

thanks..I have my cup and handle mixed..looks good..the lower the fall to form the handle, the more explosive the rise

[sportbilly1976] 20/9/2017 14:36

jailbird / ilostthelot,

the handle is now nearing completion, cup was formed a while back


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[jailbird] 20/9/2017 14:25

if ppl are expecting a handle to form, then this could fall between 25-30p? before continuing its rise.