Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[edjge2] 07/11/2016 10:26

Seems a special offer in the making here.
Stratospheric climb needs a rest.
Clinton may just miss, what then?

[zhockey] 07/11/2016 08:48

I think we'll see a lot of the hot money leave today, will be telling how much that is

[cyberbub] 07/11/2016 08:13

We thinking POG will drop now the Clinton seems like she's going to win?

[jbe81] 07/11/2016 08:08

MMs going to try and pick up some cheap stock

[zhockey] 07/11/2016 07:58

Hold on to you hats today!

[zhockey] 06/11/2016 12:49

Anyone found a video of the presentation yet?

[catsick] 05/11/2016 00:10

Yes looking good , My third biggest riser for 2016 , only a matter of digging a bit deeper to prove up what we have and will be 10 bagging on the 4-5p purchases ...

[saturdaygirl] 04/11/2016 20:08

The best Miners i know , maybe FR should be on the chart too ?




Maybe not !

Anyone have any better examples ?

YTD charts ..

[mattjos] 04/11/2016 19:33

don't know where to look at % gainers on LSE YTD but, at 543% for AAZ, it must be somewhere near the top of that list

[xcap] 04/11/2016 17:09

i was laughed at when i said £1 by H1 results 2017 or earlier if as i suspect gold breaks $1400-$1500 by year end/Jan 2017

ultimately if all goes to plan could easily be over £5 in 2/3 years

thank you for the great commentary chaps

[pixi] 04/11/2016 15:53

jbravo, I suspect that small investors have transferred their shares into the hands of bigger fish starting from above 15p to get us to where we are now in so short a time. The management have realised that they needed to get a handle on what they've got so they've hired this new geologist to scope out the ground for drilling rigs to core. Once they know what the score is, they can allocate the resources to bring it into production.

[celeritas] 04/11/2016 15:18

jbravo, I've always said Bashirov took it down to levels that it should never have reached. I still say just to keep up with others this should be North of 70p.

[slavy] 04/11/2016 15:06

Could justify £100M market cap now IMO.

I get a NAV of £103M based on a discounted cash flow model with the following conservative assumptions:

Discount rate of 15%
Extraction rate of 65,000 oz/yr
Mine life of 10 yrs
Constant AISC of $703 per oz
Constant gold price of $1250 per oz
PSA remains at 87%
Income tax at 26%

[cyberbub] 04/11/2016 14:41

IMO it could easily be worth £100M in the next very few months, *if* gold breaks out to new highs during that time, say $1450 - 1500. Otherwise yes it could take up to 12 months or so. £100M really isn't that huge a stretch to imagine, especially when it is so tightly held.

[jbravo2] 04/11/2016 14:27

Bonkers here isn't it?

The valuation that is. Not the price action. The price action is simply sustained correction. We're now back to the middle of the Bashirov selling. He started at 50 odd pence though.

This "resistance" point of 34p might not prove too big a hurdle if we continue like this.
Very few sellers. Those that do drop out find it hard to get back in unless its tiny volumes. We've waved good bye to a few now. We know their names. Resourceful (he dropped 1m), yasX (couple of hundred k) and catsick lending them a hand with a few of his. Catsicks mate also sold 1m back in August. He must be mildly irked now.


And then you have to wonder why...



And then for those newbies here you read up and discover the following.



Valued at, what is it now, £35m?
Revenue this year will be over $90m.
We'll have sold at an average well above $1250 for the year with AISC of $703, which will continue to drop as production creeps up. A second SAG mill now online to help that.

What else will drive costs down?
The manat gets weaker.
The electricity plant comes online this month. Another $2m/yr saving.
The water plant comes online near year end. Another saving. Some intangible savings by not having to extend the dam but others more tangible by increased metal recovery.

The debt is coming down fast. It should be near $30m by year end according to CFO.
The company simply doesn't raise equity at the wrong prices. The boss has lent it huge sums of money more than once rather than issue shares. The CEO owns 30% of it. His interests are our interests.
It is very well connected to the govt and there is a chance of getting involved in the sector shake-up in Azerbaijan.
We have a new Director of Geology who is simply superb. He is going to start proving up what is here and it's big. His early results speak for themselves.
Gedabek, Gadir, Ugur south, Ugur, Bittiulag. There's your path for the next few years.
As Stephen pointed out yesterday, we're the second biggest investor listed in London in Azerbaijan after BP. Stephen has taken Reza to meet the new British ambassador, Dr Carole Crofts. The company continues to impress on the govt how good it is to have AAZ in the position it is.

It goes on and on... but I'm boring myself and I'm sure most of the old hands...


Pinch yourself cos it won't be long til this is worth £100m. It might be less than 12 months away.

[zhockey] 04/11/2016 13:59

Great answer Jbravo!

Look forward to your next broker note, you have been more accurate so far than all the others!

[scottishfield] 04/11/2016 13:58

Matt : your post above; I agree(I'm convinced) that whatever the outcome of the US election it will be good for gold & silver. Throw in the UK Brexit situation (current row) and the EU Bank & other issues, not to mention Mr Putin flexing his muscles, and you have the perfect storm. AAZ a bit of a no-brainer in that scenario . All just imo.

[jbravo2] 04/11/2016 13:55

Far from forgotten here celeritas. Just that it would be a bonus.
There is more than enough at Gedabek to contend with and that's in the here and now. Anything else will be a bonus for the future, even Chovdar can't produce for a few months. It needs repairs etc. Mind, as has been mentioned before, that's far from the best exAimroc asset

[ilostthelot] 04/11/2016 13:49

Jbravo thankyou for the very informative posts

[celeritas] 04/11/2016 13:40

Stock is tight, no quote to buy 10k

[celeritas] 04/11/2016 13:33

AAZ could also get a new licence from Azergold, seems to have been forgotten of late.

[jbe81] 04/11/2016 13:06

And of course the gold price!

[jbravo2] 04/11/2016 12:57

Well of course that would depend on what I think we're worth when we hit £1. I'll hold for as long as we're undervalued.
I can't see us hitting £1 before any news on resource comes out and then the value of the company will be far better known.
If we find another couple of hundred k oz at Gedabek, of course more copper and bearing I need mind we've already had over 100k oz out since last time, that would be a result. If we then find another couple of hundred k oz at Ugur and a hundred at Gadir then £1 will be far too cheap.
Of course if we find anything like the numbers being mentioned by others then it's many multiples of £1.
That work should all be done by this time next year.

So in short it's unlikely I'll be selling at £1 now but then if it hits it by Christmas, yes I'll sell half, and have a very nice time of it.

[zhockey] 04/11/2016 12:16

Jbravo are you still selling up at £1 or have you upped your target?

[jbravo2] 04/11/2016 11:24

I'm back again.

So I also chatted to Stephen about the move to change to flotation before AL. He confirmed it is something they are looking at more closely now as it is very easily done now the second SAG mill is in place. Apparently the change can be made very quickly.
He feels he wants more certainty on the copper grades before it happens but it is good to have as an option from any point now on. He also felt the option increases in its usefulness once the flotation plant expands.
I asked about the flotation plants capacity as I've never really nailed down what it is and the flotation never quite seems to manage to treat all of the quarter's AL plant throughput. He didn't really give an exact answer but implied it could treat everything it needed to at the moment but that ongoing optimisation meant it had more down times than the AL plant. I suppose that's fair enough, if we think about how long it took to get the AL plant to where it is now we should expect a full year of learning to get the best form it.

He confirmed that the Ugur deposit is currently showing no copper but again he wanted to emphasise that is currently only down to 34m. It may be different at 300 or 400m! Of course no copper isn't all bad as it does make the ore easier to treat.

Gosha will continue to contribute small amounts of high quality ore. The veins continue to be narrow. I don't expect big things to come from here and indeed it was only ever expected to be 40,000oz from memory wasn't it?

I'll come back if I remember more from my chat with Stephen but as jbe and matt have said. He is a star appointment. Proactive and seemingly going to make a real difference. Oh and he has purchased small amounts of shares out of his own pocket. He now wants options! Give them to him Reza!



My chat with Bill was also interesting but shorter after all I've chatted to him many times. I learnt the ATB bank loan was set up at the IBA's request. Was never aware of this previously. Not sure of the reasons why but their relationship with both banks continues to be good. I asked about possibly refinancing and he confirmed it is something they may look at. He mentioned SocGen are keen. He said it is a tradeoff though. The relationships with IBA and ATB are very good and they clearly feel they won't ever be put over a barrel (Indeed this came in useful at the height of indebtedness when we were given exemption from cover ratio requirements from memory?). So its a case of weighing up the saving vs the relationship and the ability to turn to them in any circumstance etc.
He said he thinks it's entirely possible debt will be down to 30m come year end.
We chatted a bit about dividend as he bought it up in the presentation, which surprised me. It's not top of the agenda and certainly of course nothing will happen this year but who knows in the near future.

Ok that'll do again for now.
If you're in any doubt...

It's a buy.