Angling Direct Share Discussion Threads

[fevertreeman] 01/3/2023 14:49

I am holding and adding gently. I think the FD has some talent and vision, but they will need to get a decent FD in alongside him, someone with international experience that can manage Eurpoean expansion etc....I still think that the business has not rewarded s/holders anything like what it should have & would be better housed under wing of a Frasers Group or private equity pad.

[darrin1471] 01/3/2023 13:00

Have AD proved the business model works? I think in the UK they have just about done so. Expansion through acquisition of local established retailers appears to have given way to opening new retail units on secondary out of town retail parks or arterial roads.
Expansion in Europe has still to be proven.
Covid has been a massive disruption that could of been fatal.
If Europe strategy works then the share price should recover enabling capital to be raised to fund expansion or PE may take it on.
Still not holding. Waiting.

[fevertreeman] 01/3/2023 11:28

Hmmm... I've sensed for a while now that Torrance had lost enthusiasm, but have been impressed by the FD. For me this looks incredibly cheap but it seems operationally to be wading through treacle to make meaningful progress, notwithstanding the Covid hit. Tbe principal reasons for small caps to be listed on public markets are to (1) provide exit and monetise owners stakes and (2) access to growth capital by tapping public markets. They have accomplished (1) but (2) just hasnt really happened or they havent felt the need.
Progress has been incredibly slow imho. And whilst I applaud the board's conservatism, it increasingly seems to me that the mindset with this company has become very risk-averse and they lack real fire in the belly. They should come off the public markets and nestle under wing of a PE group who can release the entreprenerial spirit , and fund rapid growth w/o the distractions of public listing

[darrin1471] 28/2/2023 18:00

Board Succession Plan

-- Andy Torrance will step down from his role as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and be appointed Non-executive Chairman

-- Steve Crowe, Angling Direct's Chief Financial Officer (CFO), has been chosen by the Board to replace Andy and will be appointed CEO

-- Martyn Page, will step down from his role as Non-executive Chairman and will remain on the Board as a Non-executive Director

-- The Board has initiated a search for a new CFO using external consultants
The timing of these changes is dependent on the recruitment of an experienced CFO to work alongside Steve to deliver the Group's growth strategy, with the earliest potential implementation to coincide with the Annual General Meeting in June 2023.

[catabrit] 23/2/2023 14:16

This looks like amazing value at 28p. Someone needs to take this thing private and put it out of its misery.

[argylerich] 22/2/2023 15:09

Yeah, it's on one of them in the Q&A section. It's a really good way to compare when all the info is fresh in the mind.

[darrin1471] 22/2/2023 15:05

I would not be considering buying ANG if I did not like the business model. I would speculate that consolidation of a fragmented market has not worked before as the knowledge of a locally owned business has been an essential part of the shopping experience. With online video that experience can be passed on thousands of times without the need to go into a local shop or buy a magazine.
Higher margin own brand stock requires volume and it is a competitive advantage to have it available to see instore as well as online.
ANG have some cash to expand but if they can prove the business model works and is profitable then investors or private equity may provide more cash to expand quicker in Europe.

[darrin1471] 22/2/2023 14:23

ArgyleRich. I will do as you suggest. I watched the last one a few months ago and was going to look back at it again. Is that where you got the "Euro break-even forecast @ £16m by 2026" from?

[darrin1471] 22/2/2023 14:19

Farrugia. You spoke to soon:)

[argylerich] 22/2/2023 14:12

Darrin, go to Proactive and listen to the last 3 meetings back to back. It's an excellent way to pick out the pros and cons.
Re the Euro facilities, it's all explained on the vids as they're going through it. Post Brexit the cost of servicing their Euro customers was prohibitive for both sides which is why sales droped and a dedicated Euro company was needed.
They have 5 main target countries in Europe but are currently focusing on those that have next day delivery.

[farrugia] 22/2/2023 13:55

sorry you didn't get your down day darrin so that you can buy cheaper :)

[darrin1471] 22/2/2023 13:20

European sales look disappointing.
FY21 £4.4
FY22 £2.7
FY23 £3.1
That does not look a good return on the cost of opening the new warehouse for 11 months.
2022 annual report referred to five key territories, namely Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria but the current trading update and H1 results refers to three key territories of Germany, France and the Netherlands.
TU says sales outside key territories fell from 0.5m to 0.1m.
Online sales in H1 to 3 key EU were up 55% but were 32.3% for the FY. If sales were equally weighted between H1 & H2 that would make H2 sales up only 10%.

[farrugia] 22/2/2023 08:34

i agree one to hold and nice cash balance reduces risk.

[argylerich] 22/2/2023 08:22

Things certainly look to be stablising nicely.

It's important to remember that despite the recent negative sentiment, the Covid times have actually accelerated this Co's developemt hugely.

Euro break-even forecast @ £16m by 2026, a big ask/drag/investment. Re-emerging growth in target countries where new facilities have solved post brexit issues will be key. Likely accelerated by small single digit £m bricks and mortar aquisitions at some point in the next couple of years.

I watched the last couple of years of Proactive vids last week and have to say the CFO Crowe impresses despite him looking like a figety teen when not speaking! I'd love to see him get some skin in the game.

[fevertreeman] 22/2/2023 07:48

Couldn't agree more Gary. Mkt cap at £22.3m means that stripping out £14m of cash, the whole shooting match is yours for £8.3m for a well managed, profitable growing European business. Raging buy! Just the sort of group that PE likes (and Frasers)

[gary1966] 22/2/2023 07:36

Nice trading statement this morning. Unlikely that we are going to get two hot summers on the trot which should bode well for the current year. Estate increased from 42 to 45 shops should contribute. European operations should be less of a drag as well. Too cheap on a cash adjusted PE of just over 3.5.

[darrin1471] 20/2/2023 16:21

for balance:
"The general market outlook has deteriorated further in recent weeks which creates a heightened degree of uncertainty and makes short term forecasting extremely challenging.
Due to the challenging and highly volatile trading conditions the Company faces, and the difficulty in short term forecasting and trading, the Board believes it prudent to reduce its expectations for both revenue and pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA for FY 2023"

Weak online trading everywhere vs strong figures during covid. Poor fishing weather in 2022. High street retailers had a good December but most were cautionary on their outlook.

My bet is on a down day on Wednesday. Do not hold and hope to buy in at a lower price soon.

[argylerich] 20/2/2023 15:50

Trading update Weds 22nd
Place your bets...

Last guidance from the Board:

The Board is confident that revenue and pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA for the year ending 31 January 2023 will be not less than £73.8m and £2.2m respectively

Along with approx £14m cash guidance.

[farrugia] 11/1/2023 15:27

up on big volume

could it be expectations that inflation has peaked? energy prices are down substantially which should help make life more bearable. it could also be fund managers looking for bargains.

[yasx] 10/1/2023 23:21

Remains cheap.

[argylerich] 10/1/2023 17:47

Just general improvement in retail sentiment from other results out today.

[fevertreeman] 10/1/2023 17:31

Sudden massive spike in volumes today. Something has changed....positive recommendation or rumour