Anglesey Mining Share Discussion Threads

[trader465] 11/2/2023 09:13

SOS100 - as an investor I have predetermined rules, limits and expectations with respect to timeframes and profit or loss on investment. Loss to capital on my AYM investment was nearing maximum expected, therefore rules dictate I sell or reduce to limit potential further loss.
I reduced due to liquidity issues in selling all.

In a recent movie Jo Battershill says he is only a third of the way through the ongoing environmental work and should have a clearer picture in around 12/15 months, ie mid 2024 before we even have a clear plan. That timeframe doesn’t meet with my expectations. The delays, dilution and lack of progress now suggest that my profit expectation will almost certainly not be met before my maximum expected 2 year timeframe is met later this year, by which time rules dictate if in loss I be out completely.

Even if Jo Battershill is successful I do not expect to see revenue until the end of the decade, that’s providing we don’t get any more unexpected events such as a Christmas or seven ;-)

There’ll be plenty of opportunity to buy back in the years head, perhaps higher, perhaps lower, or perhaps not at all, who knows. But dilution, delays, lack of progress and lost opportunity cost makes AYM far too expensive and risky for me to hold until the end of the decade.

[sos100] 11/2/2023 05:57

Not sure why your now repeating this stuff when just few months back you were posting ridiculous share price targets of 15p ,30p etc etc

bottom line Parys is the only near term asset which could move the share price up......
Permits are one thing but that really shouldn't be an issue ,however this will need a big finance package to start production.Dilution has always been issue .
Excessive use of twitter hardly inspires

I'm prepared to wait 12-18months to see what the company has to offer otherwise this has been another poor investment

[trader465] 11/2/2023 05:42

I came across this great example of the above, which demonstrates the damage compound dilution can do to the value of capital invested, and the reason I won’t hold a loss until it becomes worthless like this poor chap did….

KevJones230 Jan '23 - 16:39 - 11152 of 11206

It took me years of dilutions to realise that CGNR is one of the biggest scams on earth. I made the mistake so it's my fault but for the record, the thousands of euro I put in to CGNR are worth €35 today. I can't even sell the filth because the commission costs more.

I know rampers will jump at my post and claim I'm bitter, angry, a de-ramper etc but look at my posting history. I genuinely don't want decent people to lose money on this absolute sham of a company. Same with MSMN which I warned people off when it was 20p (it's now almost half of one penny).

I sometimes get it wrong like I did investing in this pox of a company but I copped on. I'm not wrong about the CGNR and MSMN dogs. Get out while you can.


Edit:
I’m not saying this will happen at AYM, but with no clear plan or timeline, and if delays are allowed to continue and shares in issue compound while the company is running on shareholders funds it sure is a possibility.

[trader465] 11/2/2023 05:09

If company XYZ has 100 shares in issue, then issues another 100 shares, the original shares are worth half their value, ie a 50% loss of shareholder value to original investors. As the value of each share falls, each placing requires a greater number of shares to be issued to raise the same amount of capital. If original investors allow loss of shareholder value to compound with each placing, it becomes very difficult, and sometimes impossible to recover to the original value of capital invested.

A 50% loss of shareholder value needs a 100% gain in share price just for original investors to remain at a standstill. (We are now at this point)

A 75% loss of shareholder value needs a 300% gain in share price just for original investors to remain at a standstill.

A 87.5% loss of shareholder value needs a 700% gain in share price just for original invests to remain at a standstill.

A 93.7% loss of shareholder value needs a 1500% gain in share price just for original investors to remain at standstill.

The above shows if company XYZ issues 100% of “original̶1; equity per year then after 4 years original investors need a 15 bagger just to recover original capital invested.

In reality the gain needed to recover capital would be far greater than a 15 bagger due to the compounding effect on the loss, as the value of each share falls, each issuance requires a greater number of shares to be issued in order to raise the same amount of capital, which usually results in investors never being able to recover the original capital invested.

In 2 years AYM shares in issue have almost doubled (up 75%) this is the reason we have seen the value of the shares fall by 50% and why we need more speed in progressing the development of our assets and less dragging of the feet by management. Time costs money.

If delays are allowed to continue shares in issue will compound, and losses to investors will compound to an unrecoverable position.

[klondykejohn] 10/2/2023 23:36

At the end of the day, no news means investors will eventually become frustrated and begin to sell off their shareholding.
Trader is correct in the fact that for every basket of new shares created, existing investors will eventually see a % drop in a final LOM return.
When money runs out to pay for directors salaries, it is easy to issue more shares.
Dilution after dilution is just not good business sense.
I sincerely hope Grangesburg can bring us some good news, but we should also remember that it will take a lot of money to reopen the mine and will take over a year to begin operations.
In my book, at least another 18 months minimum before we produce, and that is with the best sailing winds.
I don`t like the fact that the share price is now 1.9p. Trader, I presume is now holding onto some negative equity in his stock and I can understand his frustrations.
I sold most of my stock, and had to settle for a few £k loss here, but as I said before, if the share price drops down below 1.8p then I might be tempted to buy in again

[j5thumbs] 10/2/2023 23:07

Trader, whilst I share your frustration about delays, rate of cash-burn etc., personal attacks on Jo based on your perception of his weight are not ok, and in your place, I would be personally making an apology for having overstepped the mark.

Changing the subject to a more general question, what % of a company's stock would normally have to be owned by one entity to trigger a requirement to announce a takeover bid? Or are AIM companies exempt from those pesky sorts of rules? As an also BT and VOD range trader/investor, those boundaries come up from time to time (Draghi, Cevian et.al)

[kooba] 10/2/2023 21:46

Very boring on Christmas aren't you ..i reckon the company are only slightly late in coming up with this and as explained the metallurgical work is being done down in Cornwall and the in house work being fine tuned externally. Having listened there is no neither here nor there comment..didn't pick it up first time...there is we would have hoped to get things done before Christmas Yep ..so bloody what. Labs etc close over Christmas it's pretty normal if you could get samples to grinding solutions before Christmas then there will be a delay. Not sure the fixation. You are just making silly comments to justify exiting..most likely your whole holding..otherwise why hold any stock in a company you suddenly seem to despise everything about ..including the weight of the ceo.Good to listen to some of it again great in depth picture..the guy really knows his onions.About making a comment about his weight earlier...even you are surely better than than pathetic post..have a word with yourself. You seem to have a personal beef about the guy..what is that about?

[kooba] 10/2/2023 20:44

Pretty sure he didn't actually say that..but hey ho.Looking forward to the resource update when it drops.Being a shareholder you must be too. "The intention of this programme was to increase the amount of resources in the Indicated category for the White Rock deposit, which stood at 4.7Mt, or 79%, prior to commencing the drilling. Given the results, we are very confident that a significant portion of the currently Inferred material will be upgraded to Indicated. The importance of this should not be discounted given Inferred resources are not permitted to be included in reserve estimates."15th July.Should be some very decent upgrades in reserves...be interesting to see if the value of the NPV of the reserves has increased more than the cap ex to better define the reserves we have.Let's see.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 20:27

C’mon Jo since your days at Salt Lake Potash you seem to have gained a chin or two, eating all the pie instead of giving some to investors? I think you need to run a bit harder at AYM

[trader465] 10/2/2023 19:32

In the last AYM movie Jo Battershill says the 3 or 4 week delay in resource update is neither here nor there. I strongly disagree with this statement, it shows contempt and disregard for shareholders. Shareholders are funding the delays ffs!

Using the above example, company XYZ is burning investors cash at £1m a year, or £19.23k a week, therefore a 4 week delay has cost investors £76.92k or around 7.6 times the AYM CEO salary over the same period. That is a very significant and costly delay!

These delays are overlooked by PI’s, they are very costly and ultimately dilutive to shareholders. It’s simply not good enough in my book. Jo Battershill needs to get a faster pair of daps or move on.

[kooba] 10/2/2023 19:10

Definitively sounds like you are still invested I'll grant you that.As for your dilution models you being a financial engineer and all that you really are excelling yourself. I love it when folks talk about the number of shares in issue not the value or potential of the underlying business it really just marks them out as special.Take care of yourself if you have a young kid.Chin chin.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 18:56

Another way to look at costly delays is: if company XYZ has a cap of £10m with zero revenue and is burning through investors cash at £1m a year then a 7 month delay/standstill has cost investors £583k, which is equivalent to 5.8% of the value of the company/shares disappearing up the chimney with Santa.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 18:33

I watched the last AYM blockbuster movie with my 2 year old son, even he fell out of his chair with laughter when Jo Battershill said Christmas got in the way of his plans.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 18:22

Same to you my good friend.

Dilution is the death of investment. Jo Battershill claims to be a finance professional, he needs to look at more suitable financing options that create shareholder value. Running a company on shareholders money alone destroys shareholder value and is only beneficial to the people drawing the salaries for doing so.

[kooba] 10/2/2023 18:11

I suggest you do some more research..glad i could help. Now things to do have a smashing weekend.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 18:08

What exactly do you expect to happen in 2023 that will have dramatic affect on the valuation of the shares?

I’m afraid dilution and the ongoing this and that in 2023 doesn’t cut the mustard for me.

One thing I can almost guarantee is there will be more dilution and perhaps another unexpected Christmas around December ish 2023.

[kooba] 10/2/2023 17:58

Not really as its just jobbing backwards. The fact you are doing some research having been invested for years is good though . Bravo.To be honest i didn't invest believing the company would be self financing prior to development and production i'm sorry if you thought it would be but not sure where you thought the money would come from.Exciting year ahead i think.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 17:53

I was expecting to see the assays in Q1 2022 as this was the advised timeline. However, the final assays weren’t released until October 2022, a full 7 months late! During this period we saw the move from main market to AIM and yet another round of dilution, which caused the value of my holding to fall considerably. In order to protect capital from further dilution/losses I sold down some stock at 3p.

I’m simply not going hold through dilution after dilution and see the value of my holding dwindle until it’s worthless. Hope that helps sir.

[kooba] 10/2/2023 17:12

Ya see the Christmas thing is just bogus...you say you were selling from 3p..Now i do not believe much you say with the greatest respect but if the delays over Christmas are an issue for you why were you selling in the summer..when nothing was delayed and certainly no Christmas excuses. Doesn't stack up. But leave it with you to embellish your stories. Have a great weekend ..and keep well.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 17:01

Thanks for you kind comments, hit the filter button you’ll feel better 👍

[kooba] 10/2/2023 16:58

Yeah yeah very good..you are just a bad actor. Good luck elsewhere you seem a popular fellow.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 16:57

My patience will have long run out by 2030, there are to many risks of unforeseen Christmases happening between now and 2030

[kooba] 10/2/2023 16:50

You are a funny guy...you decide to sell up and now the stock is junk apparently having spent a few years ignoring all the issues and posting huge targets ..now when nothing has changed and is going to plan you jump ship. Entirely your choice but when you start goading other investors into selling then the narrative is that you want the stock down to justify your decision. A word you used to post was patience..i think patience will pay off..might buy a few more as somewhat liquid.

[trader465] 10/2/2023 16:48

We should be drilling the Northern Copper Zone soon, albeit a little late with more dilution than expected. Maybe someone should alert Jo Battershill to the fact that there will be a Christmas in 2023. At a rough guess I’d say it might come around December ish? It’s February now so a call or email would give him plenty of notice to prepare for an unexpected Christmas happening