Andalas Energy And Power Share Discussion Threads

[domple] 12/4/2018 10:34

which horses are you backing today Ronjoe?

[ronjoe77] 12/4/2018 07:01

Aintree Grand National Festival stats


Aintree Non-Handicap contests (since 2012)…



There have been 84 Non-Handicap races at the last six Grand National Festivals…



83 of the 84 winners had between 2 & 8 starts in current season – those with 0-1 starts in season are 0/114 | those with 9+ starts in season are 1/17
Those with 0 or 1 previous career starts/starts in the UK are 0/60
81 of the 84 winners had won 1 of their last 5 starts – Those without a win in 1 of their last 5 starts are 3/157




Now looking at just the GRADE 1 races…



There have been 58 Grade 1 races at the last six Grand National Festivals…



58/58 finished in the top two on one of their last three starts (53 had won 1 of their last 3)
56/58 had previously run at G1 or G2 level
55/58 had their last start within the past 45 days
54/58 ran at Class 1 level LTO – Those that didn’t run at Class 1 level LTO are 4/118


Now just the Aintree Handicap contests (since 2012)…



There have been 42 Handicap races at the last six Grand National Festivals…



Those rated 129 or below are 0/91
Horses carrying 10-02 & below are 1/120
41/42 had their last start at a UK track – Those that had their last start at an Irish track are 1/122
40/42 ran at G3 level or below last time out (2/127 for those stepping back from a run at G1 or G2 level last time out)
Jockeys (in handicaps)…

Sam Twiston-Davies is 0/33
Aidan Coleman is 0/28
Noel Fehily is 0/21


Record of Cheltenham Gold Cup runners at Aintree…

Overall (on the strike-rate front) it’s a relatively patchy record…

5/32 | 16% S/R | +£23.47 BFLSP

But apply a few filters an suddenly we have a group of horses that we should be keeping a look out for…

Ran In Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out | WON 1 of last 3 starts | Aged 8yo-10yo

5/12 | 42% S/R | +£43.47 BFLSP

Limited numbers, yes, and far from spectacular but certainly an angle that’s worth keeping on the outskirts of our vision.



Aintree Trainer Mini-Angles


Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Overall 6 year record – 23/144 | 16% S/R | +£51.67 BFLSP



Mini-Angle…

6yo | 3-6 runs last 12 months | 4-13 career starts

14/31 | 45% S/R | +£119.40 BFLSP – W&P 17/31 | 55% S/R

5 qualifiers last year – 1st (4/9) | 1st (10/1) | 5th (9/4) | 4th (11/4) | 8th (14/1)

Henderson is the winning-most trainer at recent Aintree Grand National meetings, by some way in all honesty, and amazingly you can actually back him blind and pull in a profit. I’m not one for throwing a load of blind darts, however, and prefer a more refined approach to tackling trainers so the mini-angle highlighted above suits my methods, and my betting approach, much better.



Trainer: Colin Tizzard

Overall 6 year record – 10/37 | 27% S/R | +£174.55 BFLSP



Mini-Angle…

Class 1 races | Top 2 finish 1 of last 5 starts | 3-7 starts in season | DSLR 16-60 | Made career debut in a NH race (not on flat)

10/25 | 40% S/R | +£186.55 BFLSP – W&P 13/25 | 52% S/R

9 qualifiers last year – 5 winners at 16/1, 4/1, 50/1, 3/1 & 10/1

Tizzard’s record at this meeting has really stepped on in the last couple of seasons, with 8 of his 10 winners in the past 6 years coming in the last 2 years. He’s another you could back blind and pull in a profit but again I just prefer to dig a bit deeper and lessen the number of bullets I fire.

[therealtonythetiger] 10/4/2018 11:06

Ron.. Do you bet in the national.. ?? I know a lot of punters leave it alone..

[ronjoe77] 07/4/2018 13:29

00 10 01...easy

[therealtonythetiger] 30/3/2018 12:05

Ron..Good shout..

[ronjoe77] 29/3/2018 08:43

Paul And I are having coffee in Heathrow am going to Glasgow hes going out the door it's his horses And it's not have a chance. It's true

[ronjoe77] 29/3/2018 08:24

Hi gang back again. If you like, for your mums Easter 4.20 @ clonmel shadow catcher won't be winning today @ a nice lay bet 7/1 fill your boots

[domple] 25/3/2018 15:11

He must be a wee bit upset

[therealtonythetiger] 24/3/2018 21:02

Domps.. tt2 never got over me smashing his mum #fact
tt2 How's your mum ??

[turbotrader2] 23/3/2018 20:50

FfsWhen will they seal the coffin hereIt's atrocious

[domple] 16/3/2018 18:25

And sense shall prevail....

[ronjoe77] 16/3/2018 15:58

ok thats the boil in the bum gone..had fun wish you all well in this story ..

[ronjoe77] 16/3/2018 11:55

ok for MAY apob is now in the uk with 105 horse now hes aiming at the big prizes,this is the best guy ever and he going to take a lot of stopping.....

[ronjoe77] 16/3/2018 11:38

true story for the next chelt,the Irish will chase your fraction ..so if you run at 34sec a furlong they will make sure your running at 37sec a furlong to burn your horse out thats what they do then pounce...)

[ronjoe77] 16/3/2018 09:20

tony i bow t you

[ronjoe77] 16/3/2018 09:20

tony i bow t you

[therealtonythetiger] 16/3/2018 09:14

Ron..Yep..