Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 04/11/2016 16:22

It's proving to be a very slow death for the AMYT share price in the continuing absence of good news (in fact any news!) from the company. I seem to remember the intraday low was around 14-14.25p back in early July. Will a retest of that low encourage bottom fishing buyers again, or will the AMYT share price continue it's descent into oblivion? Answers on a postcard please! LOL.

Is AMYT worth a bottom fishing buy I wonder when it's below 15p?

[deckav] 03/11/2016 10:31

Sorry for the offer topic post but I'd appreciate a heads up on the what's the best way to trade. I currently use Goodbodys in Dublin and for execution only am being charged 1%. Thanks

[icebreaker] 03/11/2016 09:46

Following on from your comments about Stratford, my impression here is that this is more a hobby for those involved. They all appear to have other interests and the fact that they share a head office with CF's Raglan Capital, suggests to me that they are rarely in the office at the same time and therefore don't need dedicated space. I hope I'm wrong.

Whilst this may be the case, I am none the less buoyed by the fact that we have Markus Ziener as a NED. As we know he represents Software AG Stiftung who are a 20.9% holder in Amryt. He has clearly been put there to protect the interests of that company's shareholding and I would hope that he is reporting back on day-to-day operations (as well as the other roles associated with a NED).

The weak link here in my view is Friel. I accept he has made money in the past but I attended one of his Fastnet presentations and was unimpressed (as were others). That said, he too has money invested and is some 60% down on his (latest) 4p entry. That gives me some comfort too.

All my opinions.

IB

[papillon] 03/11/2016 00:12

All AIM shares are fantasies. The BoD's are fantasists as are the PI's who buy the shares. I've bought into the AMYT fantasy. It could come good. However for every stellar performer like ASOS there are far, far, far, more dogs listed on AIM. Fingers crossed that AMYT is a stellar performer and not another AIM dog!

By continuing to hold my AMYT shares I've effectively bought into the AMYT dream; that it is the proverbial crock of gold at the end of the rainbow!

However I'd feel a lot happier about AMYT's prospects if the venerable Harry Stratford put his hand into his pocket and spent a significant sum of money on buying AMYT's shares. Why hasn't he? At the moment it just looks like his appointment to the BoD was just a bit of window dressing by Friel to attract investors (it doesn't appear to have worked!). He can't be short of money, but it does appear that his fee for acting as Chairman is a nice little "earner" that doesn't entail much work, if any, apart from chairing the board meetings and how often do they take place? Not that often I should imagine.

[jacksonpollack] 02/11/2016 16:49

When the placement comes cathal will probably take it up. He moves his money around old fastnet and Amyt like its his own bank account. Must have a crafty accountant

[dynamoo] 02/11/2016 11:50

lol. at least we agree a placement is coming.I'll go make a cuppa now and tell you what price it will be at.

[papillon] 02/11/2016 11:25

Is your prediction of the upcoming placing, Dynamoo, based on knowledge, analysis, a hunch, or your reading of those tea leaves?

Perhaps you can tell me, oh wise one, when that placing is likely to happen and at what price? If it's coming soon and at a lower price than the current share price then I'd better sell now!

One thing is certain and that is without an adequate revenue stream AMYT will probably need to raise lots of money via numerous placings. That's the case with almost all AIM listed shares; they issue loads of shares to raise the money to continue the fantasy! You don't need tea leaves (or charts) to predict that, oh wise one.

The key thing is, can AMYT issue enough good news in the meantime to significantly increase the share price before that next placing?

I know you think you are a smart ar*e, but I'm afraid you are stating the BLEEDING OBVIOUS, Dynamoo, by saying that AMYT will need to raise money and (most probably) via a placing.

EDIT: The chart indicators were proved to be correct back in early July when they turned up since around a month later the AMYT share price bounced significantly. Also the chart proved to be prescient back in September when a bearish double top ACTUALLY formed. That should have been a sell signal for me, but unfortunately I continued to hold. Just as well I'm only a small shareholder and am not showing a large paper loss.

[papillon] 02/11/2016 10:58

It's looking more and more likely that July's circa 14.25p low is going to be tested before the end of the year. I did have hopes a few months ago that we would have good news issued before 2016 finishes and that the AMYT share price would be well above the 24p placing price by the year end, but it looks like my optimism was well and truly unfounded.

Will July's low form a bullish double bottom, or will the AMYT share price continue it's descent in the continuing absence of good news? Oh for a crystal ball!

AMYT may well turn out to be a good investment, but my timing has been shown to be truly abysmal. However I'm not alone; all buyers since AMYT listed, who didn't take the opportunity of selling when the share price has bounced during that time have also, with the benefit of hindsight, got it wrong. I'm kicking myself for not taking advantage of the short spike up over 30p when AMYT listed. I would have made a good profit, but unfortunately I believed all the hype and ramping and got greedy! Such is life!

So far the only thing FAST & AMYT have in common is they have both been SH*T investments unless one was smart enough to take short term profits. Fortunately I only invested in FAST when it was a 2 to 3p penny stock. Those who paid more than 3p for their FAST shares (some paid over 20p which is equivalent to a AMYT share price of over 160p) must be really feeling the pain.

[dynamoo] 02/11/2016 10:33

papillon. If all your charts are doomed to fail without news, then why bother?Just sayin.You'll have more luck of predicting the upcoming placement date reading tea leaves.

[jacksonpollack] 01/11/2016 19:51

Icebreaker. You've hit the nail on the head. I bought into fastnet after looking at portfolio of gas and oil investments it had. And I must admit cathal and what happened at cove did play a part. But sadly cove looks to be a one hit wonder for cathal with fastnet oil and gas and fastnet equity both being mismanaged in a grossly unprofessional manner. And many shareholders fleeced or holding at massive losses. Selling Tendrara shows cathal up not to be the man I thought he was. Too many bod's milking this for all they are worth for little or no return.

[icebreaker] 01/11/2016 14:29

Its the same old story, they cant give you enough information (promises) when they want your money and once your in, they don't think there's any obligation to let you know what they are doing with it!

We were of course promised newsflow over the summer by Friel and have so far had news of two (costly) appointments, one patent and a half yearly report that told us what we already knew.

It was a similar story at Fastnet.

[pottermagic2310] 01/11/2016 10:28

Totally agree with your sentiments right now Papillon... and totally agree about the use of Charts with regard to Forecasts, the odds of a Forecast using Charts being right is 50:50, things either go that way or they simply don't, always feels like a bit of a pointless exercise to me.
Still have a feeling that buying some more, below 15p for instance, anytime this Autumn before Xmas may actually prove beneficial... how can so much money be spent repeatedly, day after day, on ongoing R&D/Operations and nothing be produced of any value... nothing ??!!! The people employed surely must be producing something and getting ever closer to finalising viable Products... or are they completely incompetent Academics, going round and round in theoretical circles, who have absolutely no "completer/finisher" attributes ????

[mytrader1] 29/10/2016 13:04

€€€;€€̈́4; !
There it is, thank you :)

[icebreaker] 29/10/2016 12:56

€ = control alt 4

[mytrader1] 29/10/2016 12:51

Can't find euro symbol on keyboard so will do £ !!

Current balance ~£8.0m with cash burn of £0.5m per month (1:1 exchange rate for ease),
Would last 16 months at normal rate of burn, which would see us through to Feb 18.

They do mention that "Rising cash burn on R&D investment will
require further capital, some of which could come from licensing partners"

Suppose we just have to wait and see, but for now and until trials start don't think we need worry.

I also do wonder where the cost make up comes from. Full results in March might provide more information.

[icebreaker] 29/10/2016 12:25

On funding - see my post 495. I threw it out there to get some other points of view but didn't get any replies. What is clear is that €10M doesn't go very far in this industry.

I hope that the €500k per month cash burn they refer to includes the cost of the phase iii study but I cannot get that confirmed. €500k does sound a lot and it can't all be salaries.......can it?!

[mytrader1] 29/10/2016 12:12

Yes agree, I think we all appreciate its a long way to go, but I understand the pre clinical results are going to support the FDA application, so would be nice to hear how they went, even just for a bit of shareholder information.

The phase III meeting should add traction, just like you say.

And with the way the share price has dropped on relatively little volume over the last week or so, i'd feel hopeful it can rebound just as quickly.

I see mention of fundraising in the short term, but in my view they have enough funds to see them through 2017 for now.

[icebreaker] 29/10/2016 11:36

I am not so sure the orphan drug designation for AP102 is that much of a milestone, other than to say it may or may not work in the field for which it is being developed. This is only at the pre-clinical stage and if successful, there are another 5 phases before this product can come to market. I am no expert however and would like other's views on this point.

I think news on the phase iii study for Episalvan is where we may get some share price traction.

[mytrader1] 29/10/2016 11:10

* hear * !!

[mytrader1] 29/10/2016 11:07

Morning All,

New to ADVFN and Amryt but hoping to gain some further insight from you all!

Have done some research and see we have a busy 8 weeks, what with FDA meeting for Phase III trials and FDA application for Acromegaly.

Do you think we'll here anything re the results of the pre-clinical study on AP102, which should be complete around now?

Many thanks MT

[icebreaker] 29/10/2016 10:21

Not sure Tendrara was sold, but I believe the option on the licence was allowed to expire. That is to say, we didn't pay to renew it. I could be wrong.

Friel bought out another director's (Paul Griffiths) shares for 4p whilst the company was still Fastnet so that he could bring about the transition. This was at a cash equivalent (today) of 32p. I don't think even he could have imagined 15p.

[kinkell] 28/10/2016 22:19

JP,

Tendrara was sold some time ago. Respectfully suggest that there is nothing to be gained from jobbing backwards.

Didn't Friel put up his own money to facilitate the change of strategy? If so he must believe this will prove a better deal. he may not be correct in that view but lets give him time to develop the concept.