Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[delta0091] 09/5/2021 15:38

Stick to your Ichimoku or pikachoo charts or whatever you call it.. but don't use fundamentals and chartingi interchangeably to suit your hindsight wisdom.

[papillon] 08/5/2021 18:27

If I was smart, bazworth, I'd have bought the leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, a year ago! I didn't, so I'm definitely not smart. Ethereum is currently up another 9% today. It has a Mkt Cap of 440bn. Which is amazing to me since it only exists on a computer. The Ichimoku charts of Bitcoin and Ethereum, by the way, have been strongly bullish for a year and are still strongly bullish.
You're right about the AMYT directors. They have a lot of skin in the game, but they are looking to the future, not the short term. I presume Ray Stafford is looking to the future with his recent big buy.
It's generally acknowledged that a share purchase, even a large one, by a single director is often not a buy signal, whereas sizeable buys by all the directors at the same time is. Which is why, on Wednesday, I purchased shares in SOLG & PUR as well as buying more GPM. Both SOLG & PUR directors have all recently put their hands in their pockets.
I still have an interest in AMYT's future since I have 15000 CVR's. So I will still closely follow AMYT.

[bazworth] 08/5/2021 15:45

papillon,

Thanks!

I don’t follow charts nor do I look at overall sector performance - you clearly put more effort into this than I do,
hence you are possibly smarter!

As I’ve already said, my understanding is that the acquisition is a good one and the overall pre-acquisition business is performing well. I have a good number of shares and I’m happy to hold for at least another 12 months.

I cannot imagine the Directors pushing a deal through that will damage their financial well-being. Although I don’t have the figures immediately to hand, I recall that the Directors have a very healthy interest in the share price performance.

We all act differently for numerous reasons. I sincerely hope that you do well with whatever decisions you have made or choose to make in the future.

Cheers!!

[papillon] 08/5/2021 15:10

For your information, bazworth, it's not a question of being smart (I detect your attempt at sarcasm), but of acknowledging the FACTS! I had 4000 AMYT shares on Wednesday morning and I didn't see the RNS until around 12:30 pm, 30 minutes after it was released. I also thought the acquisition looked good news and initially I was thinking of buying another 1000 shares, but thought I'd wait until there was a pre market quote on Nasdaq. When I saw how far the ADS price had fallen on Nasdaq I got rid of my 3500 shares in more than one trade as I was waiting to see if the pre market Nasdaq price recovered from that big initial fall. It didn't recover.

PS I did have 6000 AMYT shares, but sold 5000 well over a month ago when the Ichimoku chart first started to go bearish. I bought back 3000 after Ray Stafford bought shares.

PPS I'm determined not to fall in love with a share again. Been there, got the tee shirt! I still like a gamble and at the moment I'm gambling that precious metals and uranium will see big rises in the near future, but I prefer investment trusts to individual shares these days. That way you get a portfolio of shares immediately, you don't have to research them and anyway most of the gold and uranium miners are listed overseas.
Regarding biotechs in particular, IBT, an investment trust specialising in biotech companies, has performed dismally so far this year as is reflected in it's strongly bearish Ichimoku chart. The weakness of IBT shares indicates to me that biotechs, as a sector, are not currently flavour of the month with investors.

[bazworth] 08/5/2021 14:20

“Why should you find the AMYT share price fall baffling, bazworth?”

Perhaps I’m not as smart as you paps!!

I reckon though that the performance pre acquisition is good and will continue and that there is value to be had post acquisition too - that’s why I’m holding on!! From my perspective, AMRYT are making excellent progress and that will hopefully be recognised in the share price at sometime. I’m in no rush!!

[whatno] 08/5/2021 13:05

I am assumung shareholders get to vote on the deal. Frankly, I'm not sure I will vote for a 20% haircut although I am sure it will get waived through.

[papillon] 08/5/2021 12:56

Why should you find the AMYT share price fall baffling, bazworth? I find it completely logical when you consider AMYT had to pay a substantial premium to Chiasma shareholders to acquire the company. That must reduce the value of AMYT shares if Chiasma shares were already fairly valued before the takeover was announced. It's normal for the share price of the acquiring company to fall if the acquisition is of a large size relative to the acquirer and a large premium has to be paid to acquire the company.

[papillon] 08/5/2021 12:45

5 years ago AMYT shares were originally placed at 24p after a 1 for 8 consolidation. Since then there has been a further 1 for 6 consolidation. That gives an equivalent original placing price of 144p. At today's share price that means around a 16% gain for those who took part in the original placing. Not a great rise, but better than a loss. The jam will likely come, delta0091, but it hasn't arrived so far for LTH shareholders.

[papillon] 08/5/2021 12:22

It is jam tomorrow for AMYT shareholders, delta0091, since they haven't had much jam since AMYT first listed 5 years ago after the RTO of FAST. The original AMYT placing, 5 years ago, was at 24p. Since then we have had a 1 for 6 consolidation. Do the maths, delta0091 and you will see that AMYT has been a poor performer for long term holders.
I no longer fall in love with shares. I agree the future looks bright for AMYT, but that has yet to be translated into profits for long term holders. Of course it could be worse because the AMYT share price is at least higher than it was 5 years ago, so LTH's haven't lost money.

[alphabravo321] 08/5/2021 09:50

There was a great interview a few years ago in an Irish paper with Ray Stafford about Amryt. He was quoted as saying he advised Joe Wiley to "build it slowly and steadily", it always stuck with me...

[bazworth] 08/5/2021 08:51

Thanks to both delta & Diamondstar.

When first reading the report and the acquisition I was confident that we’re in a good place. The share price fall is a little baffling to me but I’m hanging on tight!

Cheers

[delta0091] 07/5/2021 19:25

By the way.. read every pharma newsletter.. not finance related.. but pharma write ups by those in the industry.. all saying amryt have done a blinder of a deal.. one even calling the eventual outfit an orphan drug "powerhouse"

[delta0091] 07/5/2021 19:16

Max payout if cvrs Cindy into play is $85m. Hardly a big deal considering market cap will be approaching $1b

[papillon] 07/5/2021 18:15

I've already put the proceeds of my sale, richpassi, of the AMYT shares I sold Wednesday into GPM and GCL, investment trusts specialising in precious metals miners and uranium miners respectively.
I go by the charts these days, richpassi, particularly the Ichimoku charts and tend to stick to investment trusts. Charts for investment trusts are more reliable than for individual companies. However I will end up with AMYT shares even if I don't buy any because if the CVR's become of value I can't imagine that AMYT will dish out hard cash to CVR holders, rather they will issue shares instead.

[richpassi] 07/5/2021 17:47

Hang on in there Pap ;) can understand your frustration, its giving me a complex as I'm sure it will rise the second I push the sell button ! Signed Jonah ;)

[papillon] 07/5/2021 17:08

It's always jam tomorrow with AMYT. Long term the future is bright for AMYT, but I could be dead before that bright future arrives. Consequently I sold my remaining paltry 500 AMYT shares before today's late drop in the share price I have the CVR's, so I still have skin in the game and will continue to monitor the AMYT share price and chart with a view to buying back in sometime (assuming I haven't kicked the bucket in the meantime).

[digadee] 07/5/2021 16:00

Post from diamond on LSE (thanks diamond)let me try to explain why Amryt paid 300 million for 1.8 million in revenue. Firstly, MYCAPSSA was only launched recently in USA, about 6 months ago. Hence, the USD 1.8 million revenue likely represents 100 acromegaly patients already on the drug.By the end of this year, I would expect 300 patients on the drug, which would represent an annual revenue of up to USD 18 million. At the moment, it looks like they may be getting 10% market penetration, as 3000 new acromegaly patients are diagnosed in USA/year. In addition, there are 25,000 existing acromegaly patients in USA at present, who may switch from injectable octreotide/Lanreotide to MYCAPSSA.Within 2-3 years, I believe that a target of 1000 patients on MYCAPSSA in USA could easily be achieved. With EU approval, the number could be easily doubled to 2000 patients (which would represent USD 120 million annual revenue). Within 3-5 years, I believe annual sales of USD 200-300 million is achievable.Further uplift in this figure could be achieved if 1) The market penetration in the newly diagnosed acromegaly population is higher eg 20% 2) More patients decide to convert from injectable to oral somatostatin therapy 3) Amryt achieves approval in GEP-NET indication (whereby revenues could easily be doubled).

[papillon] 06/5/2021 15:34

Current Nasdaq ADS price is $10.99. That equates to £1.59 per AMYT share. There is chart support around 160p, which was the very temporary low of last September.

[whatno] 06/5/2021 11:09

Agreed. The FDA seems to have gotten tougher this year. I got absolutely ruined with the recent CRL for Acadia.. I am hoping they can clear up the mess and recoup some of my losses!

[diamondstar1] 06/5/2021 10:37

Yes, I am optimistic that some buy recommendations for Amryt will come both in US and U.K. Short term - Amryt share price has taken a hit, because it had to pay ‘fair value’ to buy Chiasma & an approved FDA drug, but FDA approval actually de-risks this deal. I am sure there were other interested parties in Chiasma - probably other US-based orphan drug companies. Ipsen or Novartis could have easily bought the company with their spare change from annual Lanreotide and Octreotide sales.

[whatno] 06/5/2021 10:02

Thanks for the commentary Diamondstar. I hope that some of the US analysts feel the same way and we get some decent buy recommendations to support the share price.

[volsung] 06/5/2021 09:52

Hi baz
Yes been in and out of FTC a few times. Out at present

[bazworth] 06/5/2021 09:50

I'm a little baffled by the drop. I have sufficient that I will hold onto very tightly indeed...!! All fingers firmly crossed!

The Directors hold a very healthy number of shares and I cannot think that they would agree to a deal that would harm their own interests.


Volsung - I see we also would appear to share an interest in FTC!! (Sorry - well off-topic!)