Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 05/10/2020 16:21

Who is the man range?
Mr dwerky from Abuja?

By the way I had a funny feeling you may be a little negative today!

[rangenoresources] 05/10/2020 16:12

Another 6% down That's about 40% down in just over a week. Do you really believe this will be signed off on the 15th?I know a Nigerian man who wants you to help get his investment out for millions. He just needs your bank account details so he can pay the money in :)

[jotoha2] 05/10/2020 08:12

Maybe a tie up with CHAR could help this lot achieve , they have just taken on an expert with results in Tanzania !!

[jdk14] 03/10/2020 10:13

An interesting case of schadenfreude on your part me thinks RR

[rangenoresources] 03/10/2020 09:45

Won't want to be in this share over the weekend. Next week looks like carnage

[whoppy] 02/10/2020 16:27

Tanz government will never get the gas out on their own.

[dunderheed] 02/10/2020 14:55

Undue influence and possible monopoly position plus want to localise as far as possible etc rtc

[whoppy] 02/10/2020 14:08

Ok, I obviously mean why should the government mind, so long as the money is from a legitimate organisation. It's not like Aminex aren't transparent where they're getting their cash from at the moment. Surely the Tanz government don't mind the Zubs funding Aminex to assist them in developing the gas?

[dunderheed] 02/10/2020 13:52

No of course I'm not - you're missing my point totally.
Yes the Zubs have influence over AEX which is fine - but your point was that the govt shouldn't be interested with where AEX get their money from - which is of course totally wrong!!

[whoppy] 02/10/2020 13:19

What's the reason for the Zubs to fill the Aminex board with their guys? Surely you're not suggesting the Zubairs are the mafia?

[jotoha2] 02/10/2020 12:45

So much speculation , why is the company not highlighting it's options here for the benefit of its shareholders.

[whoppy] 02/10/2020 12:15

Why do you think the Zubairs are still loaning money to Aminex even though they say they will walk away from the farmout? Can they not walk away from the farmout and invest via this alternative route through Aminex and still get 50% of the gas revenue without farmout approval?

[whoppy] 02/10/2020 11:59

Dunderheed, surely Aminex are operator and have the right to fund the gas project that delivers on the obligations of the licence? Where the money comes from and what Aminex do with the revenue is their business is it not? providing the government gets their cut. This is just a deal between Aminex and the largest shareholder the Zubairs who can fund the whole shebang in return for a 50% take.

[whoppy] 02/10/2020 11:57

Yes Blackgold. Perhaps even simpler is for Aminex to keep 75% and have Zubairs channel the $140m through Aminex and they take 50% of the gas revenue. That way they can honour the licences and protect their investment in Aminex and reap the rewards of having 50% gas revenues. Aminex stocks shoots up, Zubairs 30% holding is worth more, licence obligations honoured and 50% of gas revenue secured. Saves faffing around with a farmout.

[dunderheed] 02/10/2020 11:53

Of course whoppy - do you not think there may be clauses in govt audits to review large "contract" applications, process and decision?
This isn't an f'ing corner shop - we are talking about relatively large sums of money which impact govt. (people) owned assets and responsibilities to share-holders as well?

[blackgold00] 02/10/2020 11:47

yes kind of agree whoppy, and regards the money we now owe to ARA

H/Y REPORT
" The Loan is secured, with security in the form of a pledge of Aminex PLC's holding in shares in Tanzoil N.L., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, that indirectly holds the Group's assets in Tanzania. Interest accrued on the loan during the period was US$38,000 (see Note 5)"




so, if the F/O falls through, the only asset worth its salt to ARA, is the Mtwara PSA license (Ntorya gas discovery). The thing is, unless the works program of the Mtwara license is well and truly started i.e. CH-1 drilling and 3D seismic underway, there could be legal grounds for the Gov not to extend further and or Aminex to forfeit the license and rendering ARA's security worthless. so if F/O falls through, ARA and Aminex need to come to an arrangement to honor the license work commitments or risk losing it all.

"The extension, which was applied for in late 2017, is valid for one year. Under the terms of the extension the Company, through the Ruvuma PSA Joint Venture, is committed to perform the following works during the extension period: "

· Acquire 200 square kilometres (surface coverage) of 3D seismic (min. expenditure of US$7 million)

· Drill the Chikumbi-1 exploration well (min. expenditure of US$15 million)

[whoppy] 02/10/2020 11:30

Hang on. We have a value of $35m for Aminexs' 25%. This value covers any liabilities to the Zubairs. Who are Solo talking to for their 25%?? a different party, or the Zubairs? If it's someone else then the Zubairs won't like it. So what's to say this other party Solo are talking to don't come in and take Zubairs 50% if they walk on the farmout. Zubairs only option is to stay, or if they walk, and Aminex need to repay the loan then pay $35m minus $5m already loaned to Aminex for their 25% and assume operator, or unless we are saying Aminex's 25% is only worth the $5m loan they have been advanced, but surely not, if Solo's 25% is worth more? But then what happens to the Zubairs 50%?? if they walk they lose that. But I guess if they pay $35m for Aminex's 25% they will keep the 50% and end up with 75%, subject to government approval..Lol. That would be worth it, and Aminex have some cash and Zubairs 30% ownership in Aminex is protected.

At the end of the day, Aminex can as operator, just subcontract out the development of Ntoyra to the Zubairs for 50% interest, and the Zubairs channel the money through Aminex without the need for government farmout approval and split the revenues 50% / 25%.

[nibble] 02/10/2020 10:18

Exactly, Farmscan

[farmscan] 02/10/2020 10:13

When it is established that it is the end for Aminex, ARA will take them over for peanuts. The problem of reassigning operatorship will then be resolved, so then things will proceed for them leaving us licking our wounds.

[dunderheed] 02/10/2020 09:46

Good post Wakeland.
This has always been the main risk with Aex and I've lost count of the number of times I "felt" (hunch only and nothing more than that), that the govt. relationship certainly wasnt all it was cracked up to be.
It must be said though, that unless the assets fall into the lap of the zubs, then I personally would certainly question the wiseness of upsetting such a strategic partner as them?!
All imho and dyor of course.

[ngms27] 02/10/2020 09:38

Agreed, I've got $5m in the brown bag ready to deliver and sign a contact for the acreage to be acquired by my hedge fund lol

[blackgold00] 02/10/2020 09:16

"and more jam potentially when they finally drill."

ngms smells a buck or two

[wakeland] 02/10/2020 09:15

I think the Tanz govt. will know exactly who Aminex are and know the position they are in. They were very calculating in squeezing the lat drop from aex (the tax receipts). Once aex are gone they have a proven field to tout to potential suitors (actually likely they already know who that will be). It will go to a suitor prepared to 'play ball' with Govt. officials. We keep saying it up and down these boards steer clear of Africa but we never learn and I include myself in that statement.