Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[canigou2] 14/10/2020 12:33

Wow, they actually got the approval!

Any ideas on timeframes from this point forward?

[haggismchaggis] 14/10/2020 12:30

Thanks Edgar, 10p, exactly what I've been pointing out since the announcement. But of course, the shorters/bashers have ignored it, and will continue to, at their peril.

[haggismchaggis] 14/10/2020 12:28

2p+ is easily on the cards here short term, 10p next year.

[edgar222] 14/10/2020 12:18

The free carry is to up to $45m p.a. net income to Aminex.Industry standard p/e 20 but lets be conservative and say 10. $450m mcap. 10p?

[hardnose] 14/10/2020 12:01

JDK14/888ICB,

I think the truth lies somewhere in between. We haven’t “given up” 2/3 of the asset but farmed out a percentage for a free carry to production. Whether you agree if the deal was good or not, it does come with some value.

Interesting thread though and I welcome anyone’s attempts at applying a valuation as it’s something I struggle with here. I find it easier on oil in the ground, having gleaned from the models that were published on Motley Fool years ago.

Dunderheed, you sound knowledgable on this subject - are you able to provide any numbers/thoughts on valuation?

[whoppy] 14/10/2020 11:53

The market is desperate for gas in Tanzania. Madimba gas plant has a capacity of 210MM cf/d. It's only 33km away and Aminex are carried for the construction of a 33km pipeline by ARA to deliver the gas.

[jdk14] 14/10/2020 11:43

888ICB - "some things have changed" - you mean giving up 2/3 of our main asset. Can't see £250m mc - £100m possibly which would give us about 3p

[ngms27] 14/10/2020 11:42

But no market...That's the difference

[whoppy] 14/10/2020 11:41

Lets look at Touchstones' Cascudura discovery. High estimate of 571Bcf, 241.2 Bcf in the low estimate with best estimate 398.5 Bcf. Chinook would be similar which as yet we don't have a reserve report. Aminex have a 2C reserve of 762.8 BCF after drilling results of Ntorya-2. Add on Chikumbi which has a further 682Bcf pending in the Cretaceous and 1.351 TCF in the Jurassic, then we will have a total 2.7958 TCF.

[888icb] 14/10/2020 11:36

Let’s not forget that 3 years ago AEX did have a circa £250 million market cap so AEX has been to those valuations before. I appreciate some things have changed but worth remembering as we finally get something we have been waiting for for 2 years. The value of the underlying assets is still there.

[dunderheed] 14/10/2020 11:24

Do you know what GIIP means?
LOL.
Listen AEX is probably a reasonable buy at this price but let's be very very clear - it is not a TXP and any comparisons are totally meaningless unless bench-marked properly, lol.

[whoppy] 14/10/2020 11:08

This is from the RPS/io competent persons report in 2018. Huge numbers.

• Pmean GIIP: increased to 1.87 TCF, 44% over previously reported management estimates of 1.3 TCF and a 12-fold increase over the 2015 CPR.

• Ntorya 2C gross Contingent Resources: increased to 762.8 BCF after the results of the Ntorya-2 well (approximately 11 times increase from 2015 CPR).

Resources “Development Pending” from a three well development and 682.2 BCF of Contingent Resources.

• Ntorya Development: io’s report indicates, based on reasonable assumptions, that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year, producing into a raw-gas pipeline to the Madimba gas plant, approximately 33 km away.

Chikumbi targeting a further 1,351 BCF (1.351 TCF) and a large onshore oil prospect.

[dunderheed] 14/10/2020 10:54

Really?! I didnae realise that! I'll go back and change me spread-sheets, lol!
What's their entitlement percentage whoppy?
What's the equivalent at TXP?

where on Earth do you get the proven commercial1 TCF from - I hope you haven't been reading people's lists?

[whoppy] 14/10/2020 10:50

Aminex are fully funded to unlock the asset with strong demand for gas at a high price. Fully carried to production and cash revenue.

[dunderheed] 14/10/2020 10:42

FFS whoppy dont be a "dwerky" - can you equalise the respective equities and gas prices first?!
By the way am a TXP holder so very happy this morning.

[whoppy] 14/10/2020 10:39

If you look at TXP today and their gas discovery, they have a Mcap of £280m. So with Aminex 1Tcf already discovered at Ntorya and the Chikumbi well likely to double the gas in place as it's targeting 900+BCF, we can get an idea of valuation to peers. A £280m Mcap is 7.5p.

[888icb] 14/10/2020 10:30

In the 30th September RNS the final long stop date for Farm out approval was 15th October. We had that on the 12th but I am sure the paperwork has been prepared long ago to complete the farm out, so it would be a good to see an RNS tomorrow confirming that it’s done. That RNS should move the share price north again.

[ngms27] 14/10/2020 10:16

Lol haggis. I suspect we will see 2p when the drillbit gets turning. How far away is that? Will AEX need to tap the market first?

[haggismchaggis] 14/10/2020 10:05

2p+ is easily on the cards here short term, 10p next year.

[whoppy] 14/10/2020 09:55

As expected, the farmout came through. A lot to look forward to now. Chikumbi well will be another game changer. I like the prospect of Aminex/ARA being the first to discover oil in Tanzania. Already found condensate at NT1. A rich condensate find would be MEGA.

[jotoha2] 14/10/2020 09:39

What made me smile was 165% increase in share price , time for you to move onto new pastures , this is only going in one direction, up up up .

[rangenoresources] 14/10/2020 08:37

Ha ha ha Made me chuckle

[jotoha2] 13/10/2020 21:18

Based on available figures , fair value is 4p as she stands , so yes it will continue to rerate .

[haggismchaggis] 13/10/2020 20:07

2p+ is easily on the cards here short term, 10p next year.

[rangenoresources] 13/10/2020 18:29

Was it a Red or Blue day today?The way some are going on you would think it was blue again.They forget the share price was 1.5p a year ago and had dropped from 0.80 to 0.40 over the last few weeks so only really back to previous mark.Still see it falling further