Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 07/11/2017 09:50

ngms - good to have you back.
I always agreed with your point re KN1 but thought there is more gas in place.
This has now been partly proven but I always get concerned when I hear the word compartmentalisation because this starts to really potentially push the economics.
This is what concerns me mostly at this stage.

Also to be quite frank I have never rated AEX mgt anyway thay are at best mid quartile and if things start to get technically challenging this is likely to become more obvious. I've got to admit I am re-assessing my investment in AEX and will likely leave in the next 6 months unless some more of the potential I perceive is not unlocked.

All imho of course!

[gerryjames] 07/11/2017 09:34

You were right about kn1.
Holding paper for 10 years and still in the red IS STUPID! Obviously. That is haggismchaggis's position...lol someone ask the muppet if he'll admit to being sueyou1.

Placing at 2.5p?

[ngms27] 07/11/2017 09:31

Why January?

Why not March or April?

BTW Haggis do you really think they perforated the bottom 20m?

[ronwilkes123] 07/11/2017 09:25

It must surely now hit the 1.5-2p area due to the delays

[ronwilkes123] 07/11/2017 09:23

Boys, you get news that basically says everything is delayed until next year. Yet some investors still expect news imminently. The intelligence of some holding this share is lacking. Wouldn't surprise me if there was no further news until at least January

[haggismchaggis] 07/11/2017 09:02

Most likely both!

[kryptonsnake] 07/11/2017 08:25

Where was ron yesterday? Either too busy closing his AEX shorts or loading up on shares lol.

[edgar222] 07/11/2017 08:15

Well.

A 30% drop and a quick bounce to a 12% drop is not too bad yesterday given the news.

Will take that.

Onwards and upwards.

Not for the first time I think Malcy has this share right (this is a good entry point, to summarise)

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2017 22:41

A spokesman for the Zubair Corporation said it believes Aminex "can be rapidly built into a much larger oil and gas entity" with the family's support.

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2017 22:06

Dodge, it's going the same way as Cairn when it went from small cap to mid cap (look at its timeline). There is still a huge opportunity to get in on the ground floor and make a fortune over the next few years.

[skinwalker] 06/11/2017 21:50

Just more of the same old aminex nonsense. Should be used to it by now. Frankly I don't think Aminex has a future - it will struggle on, surviving only on borrowings and fund-raisings enabling the fat-cat BoD to continue to draw excessive unjustified remuneration until it follows the only honourable course open to it and gives up.

[dodge city] 06/11/2017 21:38

Is this going the same way as RAMCO.

[greyingsurfer] 06/11/2017 17:30

The most likely explanation is that KN-1 is depleted as will EVENTUALLY be down graded by AEX and SOLO in my opinion.

As they said this (again) morning there is likely to be a write down. However, their current view is clearly that is likely to be small.

Certainly they have a better idea than any of us what is going on and what can be done. But I would agree that there can be no certainty at the moment about what can be done and how effective it will be, so it's worth considering the impact of production remaining at very low levels on the company.

In terms of short term cash flow the effect is clearly important, as much as $1m a month lost. It's very fortunate that this has happened after the company has paid off it's debts, and now has a modest amount of cash. However in terms of reserves the impact is small. There is perhaps 20BCF left at KN-1, from the original reserves estimates, after production. Compared to the likely reserves at Ntorya these are small amounts.

So the big issue for AEX is cash flow in the interim until production can start from Ntorya. I wouldn't like to rule out a further fund raise at this time, but that will depend on what sort of remedial action can be taken at KN-1 and how quickly early production can be started at Ntorya, and how fast they want to move ahead with further explo and appraisal. We'll have to see.

But the bottom line is while today's fall is no surprise on the news I don't see the impact on a valuation of the company as being as large.

Peter

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2017 16:30

Only 20 meters of the 60 meters was perforated and tested.

During the second period of the Nyuni/East Songo-Songo Production Sharing Agreement, new seismic was acquired and two wells were drilled back-to-back, the second of which, Kiliwani North-1, encountered a 60 meter gross gas column in Lower Cretaceous sands. A 20 meter interval was perforated and was later successfully production-tested.

As announced on June 4, this well test recorded a flow rate of 40 million cubic feet/day which, together with other data recorded and subsequent lab analysis, satisfies Aminex that the Kiliwani North (KN) discovery will result in the development of a commercially viable gas field.

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2017 16:23

KN1 flow test results.

A strong stabilised flow of gas at a rate of 40 million cubic feet/day, equivalent to 6,700 barrels of oil per day, through a 72/64ths" choke;

Strong flowing wellhead pressures;

Condensate of one barrel per million cubic feet;

No CO2 or H2S impurities

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2017 16:22

Flyingswan,

2008 KN1 discovery, 60 meters of pay?


KN-1 has intersected a substantial gas column in Lower Cretaceous sandstones, the same reservoir that produces gas commercially in the neighbouring Songo-Songo gas field. Electric logging has been completed and formation pressures taken which confirm the presence of gas over a gross interval of approximately sixty metres. This vertical well was drilled to a depth of 2030 metres (6,687 ft), ahead of schedule.


KN-1 will now be completed as a gas production well pending hook-up for production and a test will be conducted to determine flow capacity and reservoir
properties. Further appraisal drilling will be required to define the extent of this discovery.


Preliminary evaluation indicates a gas-water contact approximately 30 metres deeper than at the adjacent Songo-Songo Gas field. This is a positive outcome for the potential of other exploration prospects and leads in the Nyuni licence area. This deeper gas-water contact demonstrates that the KN-1 discovery is in a separate structure to the Songo-Songo field and this further enhances the prospectivity of the remaining leads and prospects within the Nyuni licence.


KN-1 also encountered minor oil shows in the Neocomian reservoir section, as well as confirming the presence of potential reservoirs in the Tertiary section at an earlier stage in the well.

[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 16:12

"I'd now question why the production rate was never ratified?"

Does anyone remember the huffing and puffing about payment guarantees delaying the GSA. - They were linked, as I recall to steady state production.

They turned out to be the Tanzanian equivalent of my chocolate teapot.

I've decided I don't like deja-vu.

[ngms27] 06/11/2017 16:00

Why is everyone missing the point?

The most likely explanation is that KN-1 is depleted as will EVENTUALLY be down graded by AEX and SOLO in my opinion.

Even if it's compartmentalised (yet to proven given they didn't see this coming if the RNS history is to be believed), what's the risk / reward of a sidetrack at this stage of production? Probably not worth doing IMHO.

I'd now question why the production rate was never ratified? Did someone see this coming from the well head data?

All I can see now is another fund raise to drill NT-3.

[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 15:54

Trying to post link to Jay's interview - won't accept it