Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 15:51

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[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 15:50

Won't accept the link

[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 15:46

Why do I always get the impression that Jay's performance is less than assured?:

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[doerx2] 06/11/2017 15:18

Incompetent bs

[flyingswan] 06/11/2017 13:28

Does anyone know if there was other productive zones in kn1? Normally there are about three zones in the well which can be opened up. But normally only one layer of sands is open at a time. Does anyone have access to the well log to check?

[blackgold00] 06/11/2017 12:55

from Malcy this morning



Aminex

"AEX is down this morning after an announcement that has spooked the market regarding gas production from Kiliwani North-1. Following a power outage a few days ago in Dar es Salaam gas demand fell and has reduced flow rates to around 1 mcf/d and their is some technical validity to the thought that the well is draining a compartment within the Greater Kiliwani North structure and ‘exhibiting slow recharge’."

"Solutions include installation of compression facilities, which should boost production at minimal cost, in the meantime the current, lower production should have beneficial effects on maximising long term recovery and better reservoir management."

"AEX has no debt, cash in the bank and whilst problems at Kiliwani North are irritating, investors should be concentrating more on the Ruvuma PSA where a 25 year development licence has been applied for. It should be noted that the announcement from Solo, who are not the operator, is probably slightly more accurate and that a 20% fall in the AEX share price is way overdone and an opportunity to buy some cheap stock…"

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2017 09:48

He's back! :-D

[bunbooster2] 06/11/2017 09:47

Bad news. Wonder if there's anything to read into the timing of a Monday RNS.

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2017 09:00

Edgar, also, this reduction in KN1 production can only lead to one thing short term IMO, a faster connection of N1 + N2 connection to the big pipeline, to get AEX production up to the 20-30 mmcfd (or more if the demand is there) we were supposed to be getting from KN1.The compressor idea might work, but how effective can the pressure changes be to the production rate, for how long and at what cost per mmcfd for running the compressor? The other option of sidetrack (as mentioned by SOLO) is not going to happen near term IMO, as we need our money to drill N3. For the size and production of KN1, it doesn't warrant spending too much time and money right now on it, we have MUCH BIGGER fish to fry!

[blackgold00] 06/11/2017 08:49

a well balanced view Peter, a tick up from me

[greyingsurfer] 06/11/2017 08:46

There is no way to spin the KN1 update as anything but a blow.

I agree, Edgar. We knew there were problems, and expected a shut in for investigation. However, the RNS implies that the pressure has now fallen so far that the well is now only producing at a very low rate. How much compressors will help remains to be seen. More significant action involving drilling seems likely to be required at some point.

However, the key sentence in the RNS to me is:

"As previously advised to shareholders in the 2017 Half Year Report, there may eventually be an adjustment to the carrying value of the Kiliwani North asset, which the Company does not at present expect to be material."

Assuming they are correct then this is largely going to be an issue of reduction in short term cash flow (regardless of the absurd bit of fluff in Solo's statement this morning!)

Thankfully KN1 is a lot less critical to AEX than it was a year ago - though certainly very far from irrelevant.

Peter

[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 08:32

"haggismchaggis
6 Nov '17 - 07:31 - 65854 of 65869 0 2

Read the SOLO RNS, NO change to revenues expected in 2017, due to the backlog of payments. Looking at other fix options. Looking at N2 monetisation (connect N2 to the main pipeline to replace N1 production while N1 awaits its fix?).

SOLO RNS reads much more positive. Sack whoever writes AEX RNS"

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Not normally one for splitting hairs, but SOLO RNS referenced cash flow for 2017 not revenue.

My first reaction was " Yes Neil, but what about cash flows into 2018..., for an investment (SOLO) which can hardly historically be considered as "short term", a concentration in this RNS on the "immediate" term (ie remainder of 2017) is strange.

Strange that is, unless SOLO have no concerns about income and cash flow from KN1 (indeed all of Tanzania), going into 2018.

Conclusion, the probability of disposal of SOLO Tanzania interests has just gone up a couple of notches in my estimation.

[dunderheed] 06/11/2017 08:27

Well the pooh pooh head trader was right on his hunch lol!
We all knew problems with kn1 but there will probably be a market over reaction lol!

[gerryjames] 06/11/2017 08:16

It must have been a shock to wake up over the weekend and find 30mcf had become less than 1mcf.

[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 08:13

From Sir Bob in another place:

"The worst worded RNS I have seen in a few years. Largely pointless and totally negative. There are ways to phrase EVERYTHING!!!"

I'm not so sure...increasingly of the view that now this is out of the way, the positive news will follow. If not by this Friday, the following week the smiles will return.

[kryptonsnake] 06/11/2017 08:13

Like I said, let's start with a 30% discount. I think it's a bit of an over reaction though.

[thecynical1] 06/11/2017 08:10

so just how bad is that news? I haven´t really been following this recently....

[blackgold00] 06/11/2017 08:04

where's ron?

[slepy] 06/11/2017 08:03

2p again ?

[lfdkmp] 06/11/2017 08:02

"....this is AIM after all ..."

Well it's not, but take your point....

[gersemi] 06/11/2017 08:02

JOG - 5 x undervalued

[kryptonsnake] 06/11/2017 07:59

It'll be the usual 30% fall, this is AIM after all lol

[blackgold00] 06/11/2017 07:56

well, i'm hiding behind the sofa

[edgar222] 06/11/2017 07:55

There is no way to spin the KN1 update as anything but a blow.

The Solo RNS does not help as it is only talking about cash flow and trying to make a positive out of the delays in payments.

The silver lining is we are being paid.

But. I do think that a share price over reaction today might be a buying opportunity or even (dare I say it) a chance for a quick trade and profit on the bounce after the fall. I say this because the news expected has not changed and neither have the timescales for licence, N3 etc.