Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[bunbooster2] 01/6/2017 12:47

Why buy when the price keeps dropping though? Better to sell raise funds and invest in a rising share.

[edgar222] 01/6/2017 10:42

CanigouThere is also the Solo factor. Do they have funds to drill 25% of N3.I am as certain as I can be with no evidence (!!!) that there is corporate action going on. Might be sale of Solo's share. Might be farmdown. Would be happy with Aminex taking more of the licence.Any of the above being true requires time passing.Even if it is as mundane as Solo raising finance that takes time too.Buy.

[blackgold00] 01/6/2017 10:35

from what we've been hearing, the Cariol-2 rig is not up for the job, plus i think they will want agreements in place i.e. license extension / development plans, before drilling. But then again the rainy season is now over so we might see some movement soon as it is in every ones interest TPDC included.

[canigou2] 01/6/2017 10:25

I did kinda point this out a few days ago. :( But apparently we must just let management get on with their job of creating value for shareholders.

I must point out however, we have a drilling rig waiting, a well site prepared and are fully funded. How long does it take to update a basin model? It's been 3 months! AEX have 6 directors, a country manager and presumably many many technical staff. I'd suggest a few weeks on one person's workstation. Goodness knows what is really going on. I mean why inform shareholders?

The obvious next step is to drill N3 before the opportunity is lost. But hey-ho wtfdik.

(sorry to carry on like a broken record)

[blackgold00] 01/6/2017 10:13

i wouldn't say that compared to 6 months ago, just the fickleness of an inpatient market waiting on news.

[bunbooster2] 01/6/2017 09:21

Has anyone noticed the recent price weakness?

[deanroberthunt] 31/5/2017 14:37

falling fast now

[warbaby43] 31/5/2017 12:46

For those interested in the economic and political backdrop, with the Chadema man being relatively brave with his "bullying" reference given that one of his fellows is serving 3 years for referring to Magufuli as a dictator (disrespecting the office of the Presidency, apparently)



Meanwhile, this piece contains some of the Symbion background but while the US lady might be bang on, she is wasting her breath. The only voice taken note of is China's with the only role for all the daft Western countries, US, UK(£200m pa) Norway etc being to provide zillions of dollars for the CCM comrades to either steal, to use reinforcing their political position or to spend on large and corrupt contracts with Chinese companies:

[pj 1] 31/5/2017 10:05

<3p would be a good re-entry price imo

[deanroberthunt] 31/5/2017 09:53

bottom of the rising uptrend from middle of 16' is around 3-3.2p ish.....buy then

[dan_the_epic] 30/5/2017 11:41

Hmmm....

"TANESCO continues to be challenged from a financial perspective and this has recently had an indirect impact on TPDC and the ability for it to meet its obligations in a timely manner"

[warbaby43] 30/5/2017 08:24

To be taken with another large sack of salt:



Meanwhile, it's a little surprising that in all the comment on power generation in recent months there has been no mention or apparent curiosity at the absence of the Symbion 300MW Mtwara plant from the last list posted by BB2 at 61012.

Does any of our resident researchers have any news on this or, perhaps, a more recent schedule of "planned" power plants.

[dan_the_epic] 30/5/2017 07:30

Mixed messages from WRL

Improving the timeliness of collections from TPDC and TANESCO is of paramount importance as well as maintaining support from and close cooperation with our creditors and external lenders. As a result, the next few quarters will be challenging for the Company after which we should be on solid footing to benefit greatly from an anticipated step up in gas demand starting early 2018.

[milliecusto] 29/5/2017 20:57

Big gas discovery on sdx reported on tsx today,big blue day tomorrow

[warbaby43] 28/5/2017 07:38

The Acacia response, with the whole affair needing to be viewed against the backdrop of the links at 64011:



Unsurprisingly, nothing of the Acacia view has so far appeared in the Daily News, the government mouthpiece, and while the previous president, Kikwete, might or might not have been King Crook, the political risk attaching to Tanzania was significantly less under his watch than it has now become under this dictatorial, cult of personality president.

[blackgold00] 28/5/2017 06:18

where's the smoke

[bunbooster2] 28/5/2017 00:38

No smoke without fire though. At least let's wait and see what the news is.

[dan_the_epic] 27/5/2017 10:56

Hah! That did bring a wry smile

Ramping like mad when no-one can even do anything about it.

But wow look at his post history. Ramping garbage stocks. I pity someone who probably does that for a 'job'... Desperation, eh

[kryptonsnake] 27/5/2017 10:56

You heard another rumour temmujin? We're still waiting for the last 10 to come in.

[temmujin] 27/5/2017 10:52

this will rise significantly next week...hope no one is out of this..tuesday maybe too late to get in been told

[dan_the_epic] 27/5/2017 09:42

Can we stop banging on about debt paid off soon

It's miniscule vs the market cap and it's a well expected event. Retail investors really are absurd if it leads to a material rise in the share price.

[foolsandcows] 27/5/2017 07:32

I am all for 3D seismic at Nyuni followed by farmout of deepwater. Just more patience required. Debt paid of soon. More ups AND downs no doubt!!!

[foolsandcows] 27/5/2017 07:17

When the shareprice was at my target of 7.6p I personally looked at the 8.5p price where directors have options as a point that the share could have frothed to! Obviously should have sold..

'IF' Is the biggest word in the dictionary.

'HOPE' is next imo.


But I do believe 8.5p + will be achieved within a year.

Director Options held Option price Exercisable between
B.A. Hall 1,500,000 Stg21p Jul-07 Jul-17
300,000 Stg22p May-08 May-18
2,500,000 Stg8.5p Jan-10 Jan-20
7,000,000 Stg1.34p May-16 May-19
J. Bhattacherjee 30,000,000 Stg1.34p May-16 May-19
W.A.P. Thompson 28,000,000 Stg1.34p May-16 May-19
M.V. Williams 500,000 Stg21p Jul-07 Jul-17
100,000 Stg22p May-08 May-18
1,000,000 Stg8.5p Jan-10 Jan-20
29,000000 Stg1.34p May-16 May-19
A.N.J. Hay 200,000 Stg21p Jul-07 Jul-17
100,000 Stg22p May-08 May-18
200,000 Stg8.5p Jan-10 Jan-20
6,000,000 Stg1.34p May-16 May-19
K. Phair 200,000 Stg8.5p Jan-10 Jan-20
6,000,000 Stg1.34p May-16 May-19
T.A. Mackay 6,000,000 Stg1.34p May-16 May-19

[tournesol] 26/5/2017 23:23

It's fascinating to observe the thought processes, the emotional tangles and the displacement activity so often exhibited by investors.

I commented earlier today on a different thread about the analogy made by Keynes between stock markets and a contest in which people try to pick the winner of a beauty contest where the result is to be decided by a popular vote. A naive competitor chooses the contestant he himself finds most attractive. A more sophisticated investor looks beyond his own personal preferences and tries to figure out what the outcome of the vote is likely to be. That means setting aside personal preferences in favour of a more calculated attempt to objectively forecast the most likely outcome.

Everybody here had the opportunity to sell at >6p.

There was a valuation model available which implied an objective calculation of value was 4.5p. That represented the likely result of the vote. It revealed the thought process of the institutional investors who have most influence on share prices. And yet few PI's paid any attention to it. They backed their own preference for prettiest face over the more objective outcome of a structured, objective and un-emotional process which reflected the thoughts of the dominant electorate.

What can be learned from this?

1) do not form emotional ties with your investments
2) use valuation models similar to those used by big investors (you can tweak the assumptions if you like but look those assumptions in the face)
3) identify significant divergences between value as per models and SP
4) act on the above
5) realise that you do not have to stay on the pitch for the entire game. You can come off and rest on the sidelines then re-enter - not only does that enable you to avoid losses but it also increases your gains because you can re-enter play after price falls
6) when the share price rises it benefits all those on board at the time. people who have been on board for years get the same as those who got on board a minute before the rise. but most of the risks are borne by the long term holders. make use of this asymmetry.
7) remember you are not here to prove that your judgement is better than the market's, you're here to make money