Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[jimbobaroony] 22/5/2017 11:19

Pretty sure that the company will be making organisational decisions which they believe will make AEX the most profitable it can be.

Obviously some on here believe they are better informed/qualified to manage such an company!

[ngms27] 22/5/2017 10:48

canigou2, that is my opinion also. Should have been back to back with NT-2

[canigou2] 22/5/2017 10:45

My argument is that N3 already has real value targeting the sweet spot of the Gas channel. Drill it, get the extra data (it is up-dip from N2 after all). The extra data would be very important in validating the 'basin-model'. Then plan another well to target oil and gas. I for one as a LTH would be right behind it! AEX need momentum, they need to drill wells (they are relatively cheap onshore wells). I'm sure the funding for this program would be well supported. Get to work!!

[blackgold00] 22/5/2017 10:41

isn't it funny all of Aminex's problems and indecision's/weaker share price is because the NT-2 well was just too successful : )

[slepy] 22/5/2017 10:24

I'm rather annoyed with lack of any update and timescales when it comes to further drilling. What a shambles. All we need now is Argo dropping some shares and we are back to 2p.

[dan_the_epic] 22/5/2017 10:03

More like when they know the COS on N3 is low (wasn't it classed as sub 30%?), they just want to try and hit as many targets as possible in the hope that one is material.

Also gives them more firepower to ramp up the PR going into the drill. Does look to be a long long time away though

[greyingsurfer] 22/5/2017 10:00

Canigou2, I can confirm I am definitely a bored member!

How do find time to be bored between posts?

[greyingsurfer] 22/5/2017 09:59

It seems they are determined to go deeper and hunt for oil on the next drill, probably as they know there is lack of demand for gas. Getting a rig in Country will take time once they have identified where to drill.

It seems they are considering it, seriously. I'd assume no decision yet.

If they think there is a good probability of finding oil in the Jurassic then there is a good case for deepening the proposed well to look for that - even if it requires changing the rig and a consequent delay.

I would think any E&P company in that situation would be expected to make the same decision, without any reflection on the likely/mid near term gas market - no question commercial oil would add significant value to the company and the portfolio, so they would be mad not to IF they decide the odds justify it.

It's frustrating short term, even if it may add significant value longer term. However, I don't think you can interpret it in anyway as suggesting that the company don't see worthwhile value in proving up more gas. It's true that with N1/2, and work by M&P and Orca, there's probably no obvious monetisation route for a potential tcf+ extra at N3/rest of ruvuma within 5 years. But as you say - "if you build it they will come" to quote the title of the daft movie I watched on the box last week. The more they prove up large quantities of gas the quicker plans for use will develop overland export/LNG/industrial uses etc... Whatever lies in the Jurassic at the N3 site the gas has significant worth.

But I can't say I'm surprised, or will be, by some short term price weakness, until the news starts flowing and we get more clarity about what is going to happen at N3, and elsewhere in terms of explo and ongoing appraisal, and what sort of discussions are going on with TPDC over licences, potential GSAs etc.

Peter

[haggismchaggis] 22/5/2017 09:08

Canigou2, I can confirm I am definitely a bored member! :-D

[haggismchaggis] 22/5/2017 09:06

Goodbye short term traders, hello more new long term holders.

[tmmalik] 22/5/2017 08:49

Nice day to topup May b last oppertunity to buy below 4p

[pj 1] 22/5/2017 08:48

Many thanks for the detailed AGM feedback/ reports from various Posters. Whata sham the BB is currently ruined. Ah the good old days....

[deanroberthunt] 22/5/2017 08:43

why is this valued so much more than VOG....found and selling gas

[ngms27] 22/5/2017 08:40

Any gas from NT-3 likely won't have any value for a decade or more given there is currently not enough demand for existing discoveries for at least 5 years.

There is an argument though that if you find the gas the industry will follow.

I think the BoD are set on finding oil which would have immediate monetary value, but are they chasing ghosts?

[canigou2] 22/5/2017 08:32

This is folly imho. The gas has real value, especially in the volumes potentially in the Ruvuma onshore. Is Haggis really a board member posting incognito?

[ngms27] 22/5/2017 08:25

After reading the AGM reports this seemed inevitable to me given the likelihood of no further drilling until 2018.

It seems they are determined to go deeper and hunt for oil on the next drill, probably as they know there is lack of demand for gas. Getting a rig in Country will take time once they have identified where to drill.

[canigou2] 22/5/2017 08:24

Leopard, spots. Sigh.. This company was on the brink of something exceptional, but have put the brakes on. Timescales, planning are everything in business. Why do AEX think they can ignore this? 15 years already in Tanz. Whenever I hear Brian Hall's name my blood boils!

[thecynical1] 22/5/2017 08:18

Oh look..... Sub 4p.......I wonder why..

[blackgold00] 22/5/2017 08:15

there it goes, but for how long?

[haggismchaggis] 21/5/2017 17:47

I'm happy with the newsflow I envisage over the next few months (basin model, N3 spud date, N3 targets, N3 drilling, etc).Traders will trade and longs will stay long, so the price might fluctuate on a daily or weekly basis, but over the few months the price trend will, in my mind, undoubtedly be upwards. ARA being allowed to buy 100m shares is the real elephant in the room, especially since we know for a fact that they want to increase their holding.

[haggismchaggis] 21/5/2017 16:40

Even better for share price support from ARA, I was going by other people's posts that said ARA had headroom to buy up to 50m shares without forcing them to bid for the company, that being the 30% ceiling. Now I have done my own calculations.ARA (Zubair) hold 983,136,095 sharesAfter the warrants were exercised there are 3,643,458,062 shares in issue.That gives ARA the ability to buy up to a maximum of 109,901,323 shares before they are at 30% holding.ARA said at the AGM they would buy more stock if they could, well it appears they can, and rather a lot at that!

[haggismchaggis] 21/5/2017 12:05

Blackgold, Caroil-2 isn't up to it, if it was then we wouldn't have a well damaged by mud. N3 zones are much thicker than N2, so the total pressure in the well will be a lot higher if it's full of gas. If it's full of oil who knows what the pressure will be?

I would err on the side of caution and get a much more capable rig in, one where we won't need to fill the well bore with mud in order to prevent a blowout, whilst also being able to drill deeper for the 'other' oil. Seems that's what Jay thinks anyway.

[haggismchaggis] 21/5/2017 11:57

Plenty of idled rigs available, in Africa or the Middle East, as the oil market hasn't recovered much in the last couple of years. Prices are dirt cheap too.



“As demand for oil isn’t going to fall off a cliff, it’s us who are going to make new discoveries again, not the large companies,” said Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Petroleum, an explorer in Niger. Savannah can now drill an onshore oil well there for about $5 million, about half the previous cost.