Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 12/9/2016 08:17

Things that people may need to consider:
1) Aminex's production profile is totally false unless other gas can go through the new processing plant. That effectively means some or all of Orca's Songo Songo output given probably < 2 years down the line KN-1 won't be able to produce 23mmscfpd. Do Orca look like they are ready to deal?

2) TPDC MAY NOT agree a commercial rate until there is demand for the gas. This could actually be 2018/19 or dare I say later. I'm not saying this will happen but it should be considered.

3) The Commercial rate maybe below 23mmscfpd with the plant effectively shut down at times to average the output to the agreed commercial dates. I have no reason to believe this isn't technically feasible, it's just a valve.

4) The BoD have been promising Jam tomorrow for 10 years plus. Why is it different this time?

The only reason I'm invested here is for the Ntorya appraisals, either way it's then good night and good riddance from me.

[warbaby43] 11/9/2016 08:26

Yeah, completely agree, Bunbooster, it's beyond unfortunate that what lies behind much of this is not just the corrupt incompetent swamp that is Tanesco but the festering problem of the Tanzanian practice of simply not paying electricity bills. My mind keeps flipping back to the outcry last year when it was the revealed just how much Tanesco were owed, sh161bn, with a goodly slug of that from government departments. And that around the time that Orca were in turn owed over $50m.

Meanwhile, here is the Citizen's version of Mtwara/Lindi story:



What price now, incidentally, the loony Aminex idea of an EPS supplying "local" (30+km away) industrial users.

[bunbooster2] 11/9/2016 02:22

Warbaby - yes, I don't think any us have enough information to be across the specific detail of when each individual plant will come online but the direction is very clear. The Tanzanian economy is crippled by a lack of reliable energy, massive amounts have been and will continue to be spent developing infrastructure to improve this and as as the months and years go by more and more gas will be needed.

[warbaby43] 10/9/2016 16:07

Thanks again, BB2, for that link which, as I recall, you first gave us shortly after its publication last year. While the table on p27 does spell out the burgeoning gas demand, what has slightly changed is that Kinyerezi II has been postponed from 2017 to 2018, at the earliest, and the 400 MW Mtwara plant will certainly not be 2018. Symbion are the scheduled developer and the last word a few months back was that they were trying to raise money for the project. However, given their problems with getting Tanesco to pay them, as highlighted by WRL, and as they in turn were sued by one of their equipment suppliers, getting funding for another Tanzanian project might not be too straightforward.

[warbaby43] 10/9/2016 07:34

Damn! Now why didn't I think of this one:

[bunbooster2] 10/9/2016 03:37

This is a good read around energy in Tanzania and future demand -

Note this link is only for ADVANCED INVESTORS. For less sophisticated people ask questions here and I'll try to explain but NO PROMISES.

[ngms27] 09/9/2016 17:45

Don't forget that to supply you need demand.So where exactly will the KN-1 gas go?Will tpdc reduce output from other suppliers?That might explain why testing is taking so long as they might not be a final destination YET for the gas

[gerryjames] 09/9/2016 06:54

Just make them the same at the start. Http. It's a computer trick. No one knows why.




September 2015. Afren in Tanga Basin. Remember them.

[warbaby43] 08/9/2016 08:26

Of the blocks 7 and 8 referred to, block 7 Ophir chose to dump and block 8, identified in previous maps as Petrobras/Shell now just appears as Petrobras. Here again is TPDC's latest published activity map:

hxxp://www.tpdc-tz.com/activitymap.php

[stinkypeet] 08/9/2016 08:08

It is in the mutual interest of both AEX and TPDC that the KN1 well is run with an optimal flow rate - that is the rate that will maximise the output and lifetime of the well. AEX has been undertaking analysis about what rate of production offers that "optimal" flow rate and JB has always maintained that the COD will be signed at that flow rate. Only when the "date for commercial production" and flow rate has been agreed will the TOP apply.

Consequently I would agree that the 23mscf/d will be a minimum production rate going forward but of the "optimal" flow rate is, say, 30 mscf/d I cannot see the TPDC agrrening to a COD until they can guarantee usage at that 30 mscf/d level. This might be fairly soon but then again maybe not....

[edgar222] 08/9/2016 07:45

And thank you too, Gerry.

Bun I think Peter is right. Although it is take or pay the rate of sale has not been settled on yet.

[gerryjames] 08/9/2016 06:28

Your're welcome Edgar.

[greyingsurfer] 07/9/2016 22:25

Doesn't that completely put to rest any concerns over demand for KN-1 gas?

Only once a deal is signed, and provided KN-1 can supply what'a agreed over whatever period the agreement is for (as they will be committed to providing it at the price whatever happens at KN-1)

In practice the commercial deal, when it comes (I'd expect in the next month or two) will have to be for 23mmscfd at least, as that's what the plant needs. I expect it won't be for much or any more, TPDC can always take more if they want it and KN-1 can supply it, so there probably isn't much point for either side.

I'd guess there must be a possibility that it won't get signed even once everyone is satisfied that KN-1 can produce 23mmscfd for the required duration, but I find it extremely unlikely. The processing plant is a massive investment, gas demand is rising, and will continue to rise and TPDC, and the Tanz govt would be mad not to have a additional supply source active when all the investment has already been made.

Peter

[bunbooster2] 07/9/2016 21:18

Yeah, I get a bit confused by the "take or pay" thing... but surely that means even if the gas isn't used due to lack of demand then the money will still be deposited in the bank account. Doesn't that completely put to rest any concerns over demand for KN-1 gas?

[edgar222] 07/9/2016 21:08

Thanks Warbaby. That tallies with my vague memory.

Crunch time. Can TPDC use the gas at a rate of 22m cf per day or not? They are bound to make regular payments under the GSA when the level of sale is agreed.

Except it is not crunch time because N2 and 3 are funded now.

Still, I expect the news and I believe it will be another leg up for the share price.

I still trust Jay B and he has talked on a number of occasions of the seamless transition from commissioning to sales.

Any guesses at share price when the news of (say) 25 m cf per day is released?

[skinwalker] 07/9/2016 19:56

It wasn't worth watching Blackgold. Just Bun and his missus cavorting on the sofa.

[blackgold00] 07/9/2016 18:52

Bun, been out most of the day and just got back from North Devon, where's that original link majja talks of, i missed it and it sounds good fun, even the wife who follows all these post is disappointed.

[warbaby43] 07/9/2016 17:41

"Expected after a couple of months commissioning."

Testing, testing, testing, testing, testing, testing, testing, testing..............................................................................

[ngms27] 07/9/2016 17:39

Jam Tomorrow More

The demand curve is at least 3 years down the road.

[majja] 07/9/2016 16:30

Bunbooster if posting links can you make sure they take you to the real article, disappointed it took me to directors talk and not a Dutch website.Please kindly post the correct link.

[gerryjames] 07/9/2016 16:24

It wasn't imminent. I know that. Expected after a couple of months commissioning. Rates who knows, you learn not to make predictions. (25-35) or something.

Bun if the "wife" is female it wasn't her. Traditional wives hate pornography. Perhaps one of her friends you have been telling us about. You know, the African rguys. They were probably curious and couldn't risk a 30 streach at home.

[edgar222] 07/9/2016 16:08

I have lost track of where we are with the announced rate of gas sales for KN1.

Can anyone remember the last comment about the sales rate (as opposed to flow rate)? And when the announcement is due.

Tia

[bunbooster2] 07/9/2016 15:41

I have no idea how it happened. The only other person who uses this computer is my wife. I just copied and pasted and somehow that extreme filth (to put it mildly) was in the history. Must be a virus (although I use the latest Norton antivirus which is fantastic software).

[kevjones2] 07/9/2016 15:14

That's a shocking link. Who knew nodding donkeys really existed?